Krystal Klei’s Blog: Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches Feel Jose’s Impact

Dangerous rip currents, rough surf and beach erosion hit the Jersey shore and Delaware beaches as Hurricane Jose brushes by the East Coast.

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NBC10
The team has issued a First Alert for the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches for tropical storm strength wind gusts, a high risk of dangerous rip currents, along with rough surf, minor coastal flooding, and moderate beach erosion. First Alert is for Monday afternoon through Thursday morning.
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Hurricane Jose was a Category 1 hurricane Sunday morning, and moving to the north. The expected track takes the hurricane on a parallel path along the east coast. The hurricane should weaken as it approaches New England, and will likely take a right turn instead of making landfall.
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However, look at the cone projection put out by the National Hurricane Center. With several days left before the New England approach, there’s time for the track to wobble east/west or north/south (once it turns). Models do agree that the right turn will occur mid to late-week.
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Depending on the track, Jose may bring larger or smaller impacts to the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches. If Jose falls within the left side of the cone, and moves more west, then it would bring stronger wind gusts and heavier rain bands. However, if Jose moves at a more easterly track, then winds will not be as strong/rain will be lighter. Of course, the latter is the preferred scenario. For now, we’re calling for gusts between 40 and 50 mph at the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches, with some steady rain possible primarily on Tuesday. Take a look at the wind gust projection above. These are the forecast gust speeds by the European model. This shows that while the gusts will be strongest near the shore, they’ll still be rather windy inland as well. Philadelphia could see gusts up to 40 mph (again, dependent on Jose’s track).
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As for rain, isolated showers are possible around the region as early as Monday. But the steadiest rain is likely along the Shore/beaches Tuesday, with showers and pockets of steady rain possible inland (but less likely). You can see the rain begins early Tuesday on our futurecast map above. Some models do not hit the area with quite so much rain, but most give us some at least near the shore. Rain will linger throughout Tuesday, and some showers could last through Wednesday.
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One of the biggest threats that will come with Jose is rough surf and high risk for rip current development. Beginning Sunday, the risk was elevated to high for all coastal locations in our region. This will likely remain in place through Thursday. Why?
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Take a look at that map above. This indicates the predicted top wave heights along our shores associated with Jose. While the worst waves are near the center of the storm, Jose will still churn the coastal waters. High waves could top 10 to 15 feet by Tuesday. Rip currents occur when waves break along the shoreline, and the water built up between the break and shore attempt to funnel back to sea. Sometimes, that funnel creates a strong current pulling back into the ocean; that’s a rip current. So, higher and more powerful waves generate a higher likelihood of rip currents developing (and the currents will likely be more powerful). So, while our First Alert is NOT for landfall-like impacts (things you may commonly think of with a hurricane), it’s still important. Stay out of the water, and keep up-to-date with the NBC10 forecast online and on-air. As Jose’s track becomes more clear, so will our neighborhood impacts.
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