Hurricane season officially begins June 1, but there are few strict rules in the atmosphere.
There have been May storms before, most recently in 2012, when Beryl hit Jacksonville, Florida with 65 mph winds. But it’s still not common. If it was, hurricane season would start May 1 and not June 1.
There is a developing disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida. It appears to be organizing slowly, which is typical this early in the season.
That means you may be hearing words like "subtropical" or "hybrid" in the next couple of days.
Ocean temperatures are borderline for tropical development (about 79 degrees Fahrenheit is about the minimum, since tropical storms feed on warm water). In the early stages, storms might be cold in the center, like in winter. Tropical storms are warm in the center. They also have the strongest winds near the center, while cold-core storms typically have the strongest winds farther out.
Off the Southeast U.S., ocean temperatures are highest in the yellow fingerlike zone. That’s the Gulf Stream, and water temperatures are up to 79 in this area (the map below is in Celsius: 26C is 79F.)
So, if the center of the developing storm moves over the Gulf Stream, what might start as a cold-core “subtropical” storm could turn into a “hybrid” (a combination of types), and then a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.
Local
Breaking news and the stories that matter to your neighborhood.
If it turns tropical, and sustained winds reach 39 mph or more, it would be named "Ana."
That name rings a bell to me, since it was first used in 1979, the year Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Atlantic were named after BOTH men and women for the first time. I was working for the National Weather Service in Atlanta at the time, when the new Secretary of Commerce, Juanita Kreps, came in, and immediately ordered an end to the women-only names.
Whether it’s "Ana" or a nontropical version of the storm, computer models agree that it won’t move much for several days. Here’s the map from the now famous European Model for Mother’s Day morning:
That would make the weather in both South and North Carolina pretty miserable for moms, but wouldn’t affect the weather up here.
It indirectly could help shift the winds a bit, keeping our shore areas on the cooler side this weekend with a wind off the ocean. And here’s the forecast from the U.S. GFS model for the same time.
The European model shows a stronger storm, but the locations are identical!
Tropical Storms don’t have to be strong to cause problems. Agnes, in June 1972, was only a Tropical Storm when it hit, but it caused record flooding in Pennsylvania.
It also made me miss my college graduation ceremony at Penn State, but that’s a story for another time.
