Hurricane Earl has raced through the Caribbean and could be headed our way even though a direct hit is extremely unlikely.
The powerful category 4 hurricane passed north of Puerto Rico Monday, and now has a clear path toward the East Coast of the United States.
Water temperatures are near record-high levels as other conditions continue to be favorable for Earl to stay as strong (or even strengthen) as it moves toward the North Carolina coast.
The biggest question is about the track, not the strength. So what could that mean for people along the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches.
The storm will only be a Friday event and could have little or some effect on local beaches. Considering the storm is still a few days away things could change between now and then.
History shows that hurricanes in this position at this time of year hit somewhere along the East Coast 25 percent of the time. The main steering factor is the "Bermuda High." Hurricanes tend to move westward in the low latitudes and then curve around the high -- taking a northwest and then northeast track.
When the high is weak, storms have a tendency to curve quickly -- staying far off the U.S. coast. When the high is strong, or centered farther west than normal, the hurricanes have a tendency to make landfall in the U.S.
This time, the high is about average in strength and position, leading to a curved track, but not a sharp curve. This favors Earl coming close to the coast before curving northeastward to near Cape Cod.
The western track would bring hurricane conditions to the Delaware Beaches and the Jersey Shore Friday. The eastern track would lead to very little impact in this area other than high waves and rip currents. The middle solution could bring tropical storm (39-plus mph) conditions to the shore, with little impact well inland.
And even if Earl clips local beaches it shouldn't ruin the entire Labor Day Weekend. Earl should be gone by Saturday. Expect nice, comfortable days through Monday.
Stay tuned for any changes in the forecast track that could have big implications around here.
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