Phillies-Cardinals 5 Things: Vince Velasquez Pushes Towards His Innings Limit

Phillies (58-66) vs. Cardinals (65-57)
1:35 p.m. on CSN

The Phillies take the field Sunday with the chance to win their three-game set with the St. Louis Cardinals. Mike Leake starts for the Cardinals while the Phils toss out Vince Velasquez in the final game of a nine-game homestand.

Here are five things to know for Sunday afternoon's matchup:

1. Push it to the limit
Vince Velasquez has thrown 118 innings between the majors and one Double A rehab appearance this year. His career-high in innings came all the way back in 2013 when he threw 124 2/3 innings in Single A. 

So how much does Velasquez have left in the tank?

It's a legitimate question for the 24-year-old flamethrower. He threw just 88 2/3 innings last season and threw just 77 1/3 innings between the minors and the Arizona Fall League in 2014. Quite simply, he's starting to reach what should his logical limit.

What should Velasquez's limit be? Only the Phillies truly know, but it's easy to speculate. It's likely the Phils won't let Velasquez throw much more than 30 innings past his career-high and he may not even get that far, considering his limited workload the last two years. This year is also his first time as a full-time starter at any level since 2012.

He's also already hit a career high in starts with 21 (previous high of 19 came in 2013). While he may not have exceeded his nominal innings limit, he has needed a lot of pitches to complete those innings, thus the reason he hasn't gone far into starts and completed more innings. That's a whole separate issue that the Phillies need to figure out with all of their young starters.

This isn't a case where Velasquez appears injured. In fact, his velocity is up in his last few starts and he struck out 10 batters in his last game. That isn't a sign of decline.

But he has given up 14 runs on 18 hits in his last two starts while failing to complete six innings. That may be more of an indication that the Dodgers have his number (and didn't help that his own fans booed him last start). 

It still raises the question whether Velasquez is nearing his innings/pitch limit. His ERA has ballooned to 4.15 and he hasn't won a game since before the All-Star break. With that in mind, Velasquez has a chance to right the ship today with likely little time left in his season.

2. Buyer's remorse?
The Cardinals saw plenty of Mike Leake when he came to the majors in 2010 and pitched for the Cincinnati Reds for five and a half seasons. Heck, his third start after getting traded to the Giants at the deadline last year was against the Cardinals.

Suffice to say, the Cards were very familiar with the right-handed pitcher when they inked him to a five-year, $80 million deal this offseason. But less than a year into that deal, there is plenty of reason for the Cardinals to regret handing out $16 million annually to the 28-year-old pitcher. 

Leake has a career-worst 4.78 ERA in 145 innings thus far in 2016. He's allowed 162 hits, also a disappointing number considering his improvements in his walk and strikeout rates. 

Since Leake went directly from the draft to the majors in 2010, he's been consistently about average. His ERA has generally been between 3.50 and 4.00, give or take .2 runs or so. He produced 30 starts a year from 2012 to 2015 and is on pace to keep that streak going this year. Durability is certainly not an issue.

It's not like he had dominated the Cardinals or anything. He was 5-7 with a 4.42 ERA in nearly 100 innings against them before joining the team. It's ironic that his numbers against the Cardinals better resemble his current production than he results over the last few years. 

The rise in hits makes sense for Leake and also may be correctable. After all, he pitches to contact as a sinkerballer. His velocity is the same as it was last season when he had a 3.70 ERA. However, he still is looking very little like someone worth $16 million a season so far and the Cardinals need him to improve for that investment to be proven wise.

3. Nearing the end of an era
Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz appear to be nearing the end of their time in Philadelphia after illustrious tenures that included a 2008 World Series title. While the Cardinals have already been infused with young talent, guys like Matt Holliday are nearing a similar fate to Howard and Ruiz.

You may have noticed Holliday has not been on the field this series. And for good reason: He's hurt. He needs surgery to repair a fractured thumb. It may keep him out enough to prematurely end his time with the Cards.

It's hard to picture Holliday these days not in a Cardinals uniform. After spending his first five seasons in Colorado and then a half season in Oakland, he's been in St. Louis for seven and a half years. He's a consistent part of their lineup, manning left field and providing right-handed power in the middle of the order. 

He has batted .292 with a .872 OPS during his time in St. Louis while hitting 155 homers and knocking in 614 runs. He earned four All-Star appearances and was a key member of the 2011 World Series champions and 2013 NL champs. 

And now with his seven year contract coming to an end, it is a sign that the old guard from those championship teams is starting to depart St. Louis. Albert Pujols left a while ago, Adam Wainwright has been a shell of his former self and Yadier Molina has logged a ton of innings at catcher and is not the same at the plate. 

While the Cardinals remain in the thick of playoff contention and will likely continue to do so, it's because of younger guys like Michael Wacha, Alex Reyes, and Stephen Piscotty. What a time it has been for these Cards. 

4. Players to watch
Phillies: Ryan Howard hits Leake well historically. He is 8 for 23 with three home runs and two walks against him and holds a .348/.423/.783 triple slash in those plate appearances. 

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter continues to rake in the middle of the Cards order. He can play every infield position other than shortstop and is just 30 years old, making him a definite part of their future as well. 

5. This and that
• Leake faced the Phillies on May 4 in St. Louis. While the Cards won that game, 5-4, Leake wasn't stellar in his outing. He allowed four hits, including two home runs, and gave up four runs over five innings. 

Howard and Odubel Herrera were the batters to go deep off Leake in that game.

• Leake just hasn't pitched well against the Phillies in his career. He has a 2-3 record with a 6.11 ERA over 53 innings and nine starts against the Phils. He's allowed 10 home runs to the Phillies in those games.

• Maikel Franco is 4 for 7 against Leake while Peter Bourjos is 0 for 6 against the righty.  

• The only Cardinals hitter to have experience against Velasquez is Brandon Moss, who is 0 for 3 against the Phils' flamethrower.