Looking at the key matchups for Eagles-Seahawks:
The Chancellor Effect
When Tyrod Taylor and the Bills went up to Seattle two weeks ago and lost 31-25, they converted 30 first downs, tying the most the Seahawks allowed since 2010.
But the Seahawks were a different defense two weeks ago, missing their enforcer, Kam Chancellor. Chancellor returned against the Patriots last week and played a tremendous game, both in coverage and against the run.
Seattle has so much talent on defense that it may seem surprising Chancellor's absence made such a difference, but it's not when you consider how the Seahawks play. There are few bells and whistles in their defensive game plan. You won't see much disguising or exotic blitzing from them.
For years, the Seahawks have thrived playing base-defense Cover 3 — the two cornerbacks and the free safety divide the field up into deep-thirds, with the free safety manning the middle. The strong safety, Chancellor, usually has responsibility against the run and on passes either short or in the flat.
Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Chancellor have been together so long that they know where each other will be and can communicate without words. When Chancellor was out, former undrafted free agent Kelcie McCray drew the starts and did not play well, missing six tackles and allowing QBs a 108.0 rating, according to Pro Football Focus. One weak link in that Seattle secondary allowed the Bills to move the ball up and down the field, with Taylor extending plays and LeSean McCoy finding running lanes.
Philadelphia Eagles
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Those lanes will be mostly closed on Sunday afternoon when the Eagles visit the Seahawks. Seattle's defense has been so good in recent years because it has every component you need: pass rushers up front, athletic and run-stuffing linebackers, an All-Pro cornerback, a playmaking free safety who can cover tight ends and receivers, and Chancellor, the hard-hitting soul of the defense.
No Michael Bennett
One notable absence in this game will be defensive end Michael Bennett, Seattle's top pass rusher and one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the game. The Seahawks do have eight sacks combined in the last three games Bennett's missed with a knee injury, but they've allowed 25, 25 and 24 points. The pressure hasn't been as consistent.
How can the Eagles move the ball?
Thinking about ways the Eagles could attack the Seahawks, this obviously doesn't feel like a good matchup.
Carson Wentz would be unwise to target Sherman, whose ball skills are almost equal to those of Nelson Agholor and Dorial-Green Beckham.
Seattle's linebackers and safeties are capable of nullifying tight ends. Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett combined for 10 catches and 158 yards against Seattle last Sunday night, but that's the best TE duo in the league playing with the best quarterback in NFL history. Prior to that, no tight end had reached 70 yards against the Seahawks this season, and again, that's been with Chancellor in and out of the lineup.
Zach Ertz has been limited this week by a hamstring injury and is questionable for Sunday. It's not shaping up to be a big game for him.
It could, however, be a productive afternoon for Jordan Matthews, who is questionable with back spasms. Sherman won't follow Matthews around the field, instead staying on his left side. That means the Eagles will be able to match their best receiver up against the Seahawks' weakest corner, Jeremy Lane.
In 219 snaps out of the slot this season, Lane has allowed 25 catches for 246 yards and two TDs. His 116.5 opponents' QB rating is fifth-worst among corners who have spent at least half their time in the slot.
The Seahawks tend to limit yards after catch, which is not Matthews' strong suit. It wouldn't be surprising if he ended up with a 7-for-78 type of stat line.
Running game
Ryan Mathews broke back out last week with 19 carries for 109 yards and two TDs. Mathews' fumbles earlier in the year were back-breakers, but his season hasn't been as bad as it may seem. In eight of nine games this season, he's either scored, averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry or both.
The Seahawks are very good, but not great against the run. In Weeks 7 and 8, David Johnson and Tim Hightower combined for 215 rushing yards against them, albeit with a 3.6-yard average. LeGarrette Blount scored three short TDs in Seattle last week, and prior to that McCoy and Mike Gillislee combined for 156 total yards and a TD. Carlos Hyde also gashed them for 103 yards and two TDs.
I've heard and seen some people this week say that a running back with Mathews' style won't have much success against Seattle, but I disagree — sometimes you beat power with power. The Seahawks are so instinctive and fast that getting cute and bouncing runs outside is not the answer.
Darren Sproles figures to make an impact in the passing game with checkdowns and bailouts of Wentz when he's under pressure.
Seahawks on offense
This is the time of year the Seahawks' offense starts clicking. We saw it last year with Doug Baldwin, and this year it's been both Baldwin and Jimmy Graham.
Baldwin, who has a chip on his shoulder that never leaves, has an amazing connection with Russell Wilson, the kind Ben Roethlisberger has with Antonio Brown. The ball can be thrown before Baldwin is even open because they've played so much together that trust is built in. Baldwin, who scored three TDs last week, is a deep threat despite not having above-average size or speed.
The two biggest challenges Seattle offers on offense are Wilson's ability to scramble and extend plays, and Graham's insane catch radius. Graham, recovered from last year's season-ending patellar tendon injury, had a pair of one-handed TD catches two weeks ago against the Bills. He looks like his old self. Graham's second among NFL tight ends with 593 receiving yards, and his 14.1 yards per catch tie his 2013 season, when he had 1,215 yards and 16 TDs with Drew Brees.
Not sure anyone on the Eagles can stay with Graham, Malcolm Jenkins included. Graham has as much size as Gronk and Antonio Gates but is much faster. If there's anyone to double team on this team, it's him.
Linebacker Nigel Bradham, the Eagles' best coverage LB, said his plan is to be physical with Graham and bump him at the line of scrimmage. Finesse players usually dislike that.
When the Eagles are in the red zone, they should deploy the old Patriots strategy against great TEs of double-covering him right at the line. Let someone else beat you.
If that means opening up some room for returning RB Thomas Rawls or pass-catching back C.J. Prosise, so be it. The Eagles have been mostly solid against the run this season and that should continue Sunday against an NFL-worst Seahawks offensive line and two unspectacular running backs.
In the trenches
The matchup which most favors the Eagles is their defensive line against the Seahawks' inexperienced, patchwork offensive line. Seattle's O-line has never been great during the Wilson era, but it's even worse now after the trade of center Max Unger for Graham two years ago and the free-agent departure of Russell Okung.
The Seahawks have spent so much money to retain their core players — Wilson, Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Baldwin, Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright — that they just don't have enough to pay offensive linemen.
While Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham should find their way into the backfield often in this one, it doesn't necessarily mean the Eagles will have a bunch of sacks. The Giants' O-line wasn't great when they beat the Eagles in Week 9, but Eli Manning got the ball out quickly enough to mitigate the pass rush. Wilson's ability to sidestep defenders and move in and out of the pocket will have the same effect.
The best way to attack Wilson will be to keep him in the pocket — attack from the edges, but stay sound and disciplined. If Graham, Connor Barwin or Vinny Curry overrun plays for a sack, it will leave Wilson the backdoor to evade a pass rusher and pick up yards on the ground.
The only way the Eagles are going to win this game is by keeping Wilson in the pocket and hitting him a few times. If you can rattle him and make the Seahawks a one-dimensional passing offense, you've got a chance.
Prediction
I think the Eagles will make this a more competitive game than most expect and it will be close late in the fourth quarter. But it's tough to give the edge in a late-and-close situation to any rookie QB travelling to CenturyLink Field for the first time, even if it's one as polished as Wentz.
Seahawks 19, Eagles 16
