Phillies (12-16) vs. Nationals (20-9)
7:05 p.m. on CSN; streaming live on CSNPhilly.com and the NBC Sports App
For the seventh time in eight games, the Phillies lost on Friday, dropping a game to the MLB-best Nationals. Now it's up to Vince Velasquez to snap the team's four-game losing streak while A.J. Cole makes his season debut for the Nationals.
Here are five things to know for the Saturday night matchup.
1. Velasquez and his walks problem
Through five starts this season, the Phillies have gotten a mixed bag of results from Velasquez.
He's gone five innings or fewer in three of his appearances, allowed at least three runs in all but one, given up at least one home run in every game and yet he still averages a hair under a strikeout an inning. In other words, he's been classic Vince Velasquez.
Two things jump out from his underlying numbers beyond his 5.47 ERA through 26 1/3 innings. The first thing is the home runs. He allowed 1.4 HR per nine innings last season and has given up 2.1 per nine this season. His groundball to flyball ratio has increased from 0.84 to 1.42 yet his home run to flyball ratio has jumped over 10 percent. What that likely indicates is that if he can continue to keep the ball on the ground at a similar rate, the home-run barrage could dissipate quickly.
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The other concern are his walks. He walked 3.1 per nine last season, not a spectacular rate but still not catastrophic. However, he's walked 5.1 per nine so far this season and has at least two walks in every start. His strikeout rate is a little down but still highly respectable. Velasquez simply needs to cut down on the walks. Going deep into counts and walking a few every game is driving up his pitch counts and contributing to his early exits.
While Velasquez struggled against the Nationals in the Phils' home opener (four runs and 10 strikeouts in four innings), he had a quality start in his only start against them last season. He's also improved as he's gone along this season, posting a 3.63 ERA in his last three starts.
2. It's a Cole world out there
Today normally would have been Joe Ross' turn in the rotation. However, after posting a 7.47 ERA through three starts, the third-year Nats starter found himself demoted back to Triple A Syracuse. Lefty hitters were destroying Ross and manager Dusty Baker said his trademark sinker wasn't hitting the mark. To defend Ross, his ERA and numbers were inflated by making a start at Coors Field in Colorado.
The choice was then between Jacob Turner and Cole to make the start, but Turner was needed for four innings of relief on Wednesday. Thus, Cole was called up this week in order to make his first start of the season.
Cole was formerly a top prospect for the Nationals. He was expected to jump into the Nationals' rotation and was given 11 games (eight starts) over the last two seasons in the big leagues. However, his performance lagged both when he reached the upper tier of the minor leagues and in the majors, sporting a 5.29 ERA in 47 2/3 MLB innings.
He's off to a less-than-stellar beginning to his 2017 season, going 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in four starts in Triple A. Cole is still just 25, so there is still time for him to turn things around, but the clock is ticking for the former fourth-round pick.
Cole sports a low-90s fastball, which has some sink to it, and primarily relies on his 83-mph slider as his main offspeed pitch. The righty also mixes in a mid-70s curveball and a mid-80s changeup.
3. Are the Nationals destined for a division crown?
It's a little ridiculous to ask that question on May 6. However, it's not as ridiculous as you think.
The Nationals have a 6.5-game lead in the NL East right now. Since 2000, only five teams have had a division lead that large on May 6 and all five of those teams went on to win their divisions. Surely, you can't have the division wrapped up after fewer than 30 games and that's no different for the Nationals today.
Going into Friday's action, the Nationals had a 90.9 percent chance to win the division according to FanGraphs. That's an increase of 22 percent after they had a 68.9 percent chance on opening day.
It's pretty simple to believe in that 90.9 percent watching the Nationals this year. Their offense is electric, even since the loss of center fielder Adam Eaton to a season-ending injury. Their starting pitching has helped overcome a lackluster bullpen by posting the ninth-best staff ERA and the third highest Wins Above Replacement in all of baseball. It seems like it's only a matter of time before the Nats acquire a new center fielder or reliever to shore up their remaining holes.
Furthermore, some say that while you can't win the division this early in the season, you can lose it. If you dig yourself a large enough hole, it can be cumbersome, sometimes impossible, to dig yourself out, particularly if the division leader isn't beset by a rash of injuries. And that's exactly what the Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Braves have done.
To be fair, no one really expected the Phillies or Braves to be contenders this year. The Marlins' hopes for a competitive 2017 were likely dashed in tragedy last September. In the Mets' case, the hole has been dug by injury after injury that has turned its pitching staff from one of the best in baseball to one of the worst. And with serious injuries plaguing the team moving forward, it could make the Nationals' early divison lead insurmountable.
4. Players to watch
Phillies: Since April 23, Michael Saunders has 10 hits in 10 games and has raised his OPS from .616 to .686. In his 10 appearances since the 23rd, he has four extra-base hits, including both of his home runs this season.
Nationals: With Eaton (torn ACL) out for the season, Michael Taylor is the Nationals' center fielder for the time being. He's filled in just fine recently, notching 10 hits in his last six games and carries a six-game hitting streak into Saturday's action.
5. This and that
• A 12-year MLB veteran, Nationals reliever Matt Albers picked up his first save last night. With 102 games finished in his career before Friday, Albers was one of two pitchers in MLB history with more than 100 games finished but no saves. The record, 105 games, is held by Ryan Webb, a 31-year-old reliever currently in the Giants' system.
• The Phillies are currently 7.5 games out of the division lead, a low for the season. They did not fall that far back of first place until June 8 last season. After 28 games last season, the team held a 16-12 record as opposed to this year's 12-16 mark.
• No one on the Phillies has faced Cole for more than five at-bats. Odubel Herrera is 0 for 5 off Cole while Cesar Hernandez, Andres Blanco, Maikel Franco and Freddy Galvis has one single each off the righty.
