Yes, Some of It Is From Patricia
Tuesday makes it 18 days in a row without measurable rain in Philadelphia. That’s a LONG dry spell (but not close to the record of 29 days). And it’s guaranteed to break Wednesday. Some of the moisture moving in is directly from Hurricane Patricia-the one that hit the Western Mexican coast Friday. In fact, the LOW pressure system that can be tracked back to Patricia will move northward to near Green Bay, Wisconsin by Wednesday afternoon:
All that green represents rain. You can see it’s a solid area, which means a steady rain for us for many hours. The heaviest looks like it will come Wednesday afternoon and evening, making the afternoon rush a mess.
Dry Spell & Leaves Make It Worse
We see this all the time-roads that build up a lot of grease during a dry spell. So, as soon as the rain starts, the roads get extra slippery. That is often followed by car and truck accidents. This could happen during the morning rush Wednesday. Leaves that have fallen also can create slippery driving conditions. This, of course, would be true farther north and west of the Philadelphia area, where the fall colors are more advanced, or even peaked.
Wind & Thunderstorms
That map above not only shows the rain areas, but suggests gusty winds as well. The closer those lines are together, the stronger the winds. We could see gusts of more than 40 mph at times on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are also expected in at least part of the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region in a “Marginal Risk” of Severe Thunderstorms for Wednesday. Personally, I completely dislike the term marginal, because it implies that there’s barely any risk. Just remember there is a chance for strong, damaging thunderstorm winds tomorrow. Here’s the official map:
How Much Rain?
When it’s all said and done 1- to 2-inches is going to be the general norm. In the map below, everywhere shaded in dark green will fall in that 1- to 2-inch range. The Lehigh Valley and other Suburbs to the North & West of Philadelphia may see more than 2 inches, and that’s the area shaded in blue. The Shore may get slightly less than an inch, in the area shaded in light green.
Halloween & Temple/Notre Dame
We finally have a big college football game to talk about: Notre Dame at Temple Saturday night at 8 p.m. That’s only a couple of hours after the main time for Halloween trick-or-treating. The sun sets right at 6 p.m., so it will be completely dark by 6:30 p.m. As of now, the weather looks good for outdoor activities, although it’ll be on the chilly side. The expected weather:
There shouldn’t be much wind, either.