Glenn 'Hurricane' Schwartz's Blog: Rain on Thanksgiving? - NBC 10 Philadelphia

Glenn 'Hurricane' Schwartz's Blog: Rain on Thanksgiving?



    NBC10 First Alert Weather: Cold, Rainy Thanksgiving Forecast

    It is a cold, clear day Wednesday, but expect spots of showers for Thanksgiving. NBC10 First Alert Weather chief meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz has details. (Published Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016)

    Pretty Nice Overall

    Yes, there are chances of rain on Thanksgiving, but most of the holiday weekend looks dry and rather comfortable. Of course, any rain on Thanksgiving could be important, considering the parade and last-minute travel. So let’s start with that... Your Thanksgiving Weather OutlookYour Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

    Thanksgiving Day

    First of all, it won’t be nearly as cold Thursday morning as it was Wednesday morning (many places were in the 20s). It will be a cloudy day, and there is a chance of some showers moving through. The details are the tricky part.

    Various computer models show the remnants of the impressive rain area to our west (widen out the picture on our interactive radar):

    Some of that moisture will be moving into our area Thanksgiving Day. But here’s a great example of “be careful what you’re looking at” -- it could make you think the rain threat is higher than it actually is...

    First is the map from one model for 4 p.m. when you look for the “radar” images:

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    That looks pretty wet, doesn’t it? And this is a “high resolution” version of that model, so it should see the detail well. But is it actually saying that it’s going to be really wet? We’re looking at radar here, not the actual weather. Sometimes the rain that radar sees up in the clouds doesn’t reach the ground. So we need to look at the “accumulated rain” to see how much this model suggests will reach the ground:

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    Now, we see the map barely get a color. That suggests only very light rain would be expected by 4 p.m. in the Philadelphia area, and virtually none in New Jersey. Look at the top map again to see what a difference there is!

    Other computer models don’t even show any rain at all. And no models show widespread or heavy rain. You can bring an umbrella just in case, but there’s no need to cancel outdoor plans at this point. Temperatures may be a bit below the “normal” of 54 degrees in the afternoon due to clouds. But there will be very little wind, so it won’t feel very cold.

    Black Friday

    Most computer models now keep us dry, with rain chances at or below 20 percent in all areas. Clouds will once again keep temperatures down a bit, but even a little sunshine could let us reach the mid-50s. It’ll be another day with very little wind. Macy's Thanksgiving Parade Through the YearsMacy's Thanksgiving Parade Through the Years

    Rest of the Weekend

    Both Saturday and Sunday will feature a lot of sunshine with temperatures near or a little below normal for this time of year. It should be a good bit windier Sunday, with 15-25 mph winds.