Poll Finds ‘Statistical Tie' in Democratic Race for Philadelphia Mayor

Voters seem to split on support of a Democratic candidate in the race for Philadelphia's 100th mayor.

Early Friday, the Committee of Seventy -- a non-profit group that does not endorse any candidates -- released results from, what the committee calls the "first nonpartisan public poll" of the city's upcoming mayoral election.

It found Democratic candidates locked in a "statistical tie" for support between likely Democratic voters.

According to the poll, -- which has a 3.8% credibility interval, or margin of error -- former city controller Rebecca Rhynhart has the support of 18% of likely Democratic voters, followed by former city council members, as 17% of likely Democratic voters stood behind Cherelle Parker, 15% would endorse Helen Gym and 14% would support Allan Domb.

Another 11% of likely Democratic voters indicated support for grocer Jeff Brown, in the recent poll.

With two and a half weeks to go, the nonprofit noted that 20% of voters remain undecided.

The Committee of Seventy also surveyed respondents on how they’d rank their choices for mayor if given that option. The non-profit noted that "ranked choice voting" or “instant runoff voting,” is a popular method of voting used in approximately 60 cities including New York City, Minneapolis and Oakland.

As explained by the Committee of Seventy, "[r]anked-choice voting eliminates candidates one-at-a-time until one candidate wins with more than 50% of votes. If a voter’s first choice is eliminated, their ballot counts for their next highest ranked candidate."

If voters used this method to select the next mayor, the non-profit's survey found that Rhynhart would come in first and Parker would come in second.

“These results make clear what we knew all along: that every vote matters,” said Lauren Cristella, Committee of Seventy’s interim president and chief operating officer in a statement. “We want every eligible voter to vote, to be informed when they vote, and to vote with confidence. This poll is a snapshot in time that hopefully gives voters an additional piece of information to use when they walk into a voting booth or complete a mail-in ballot. There are a lot of great tools available to help voters make the right decisions for themselves and their families, and we undertook this poll to add one more tool to the toolbox.”

Breaking down the poll results

Along with these results, the Committee of Seventy reported a number of other findings:

• If undecided voters were pushed to make a choice, Rhynhart would win 19% of the vote, Parker would take 17%, Gym would garner 16%, Domb would get 16% and Brown would pull 15%, while 15% of likely Democratic voters would remain undecided.
• Among white voters, Rhynhart leads with 29%, five points ahead of the next-strongest candidate in this group of voters, Helen Gym.
• Among men, Rhynhart leads with 21%, five points better than she does among women and four points ahead of the next candidates.
• Rhynhart also holds leads among higher-income voters, where she finishes 5 points ahead of Gym, in Center City, where she dominates, and among the youngest voters.
• Parker holds a strong lead among perspective Latino voters. She would get 31% of their support, which would be twice that of any other candidate.
• Parker would also see strong support from voters in Northwest Philadelphia at 28% and among Black voters, with 25%.
• Parker also leads among 50-to-64-year-olds, and, the poll shows her well ahead of Rhynhart among conservatives and moderates.
• Gym, the results show, would hold a strong lead among voters who say they are “very liberal,” where she takes 40%, 15 points ahead of Rhynhart.
• Gym also outperforms her numbers among white voters and upper-income voters, groups where she finishes just 4-5 points behind Rhynhart.
• Gym also is ahead among the 9% of voters who report that they have already voted, where she takes 20% of those banked votes.
• Domb has small leads over Parker among conservatives and moderates and a significant advantage in Northeast Philly. He also leads among voters with high school diplomas.
• Brown found significant support from the oldest voters and among conservatives, those with high school educations, and those who have attended some college.
• In the early vote, Brown has 17%, slightly behind Gym.

The Committee of Seventy commissioned the poll in partnership with FairVote, Urban Affairs Coalition, The Philadelphia Citizen, and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia.

According to the non-profit, the recent poll interviewed 1,500 Philadelphia adults via phone and text from April 21 to 25, 2023.

“With multiple candidates within the confidence interval and a fifth of likely voters still undecided, the race is still wide open,” said Sharmain Matlock-Turner, CEO of the Urban Affairs Coalition in a statement. “We’re excited to work with partners across the city to make sure that every eligible Philadelphian gets out and makes their voice heard in this election.”

Currently, there are nine Democratic candidates in the Philadelphia mayoral race and one Republican candidate. The Philadelphia primary election will take place on Tuesday, May 16.