MLB

Where Can Judge Break the AL Home Record? A Look at the Remaining 7 Games for NYY

Will Judge surpass Maris’ record to make history on his home field? Or will the four-time All-Star do the honors in Texas when the Yankees visit the Rangers?

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Where could Aaron Judge break American League HR record? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Yankees have been in the spotlight for the past week and it’s safe to say, they did not disappoint.

Aaron Judge not only matched Roger Maris’ single-season American League home run record with 61 during Wednesday’s game in Toronto, but the Yankees also clinched the AL East Division just a day earlier.

After quite the whirlwind in Canada, luckily for the Blue Jays’ sake, New York is returning home for a three-game set against the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx.

Will Judge surpass Maris’ record to make history on his home field? Or will the four-time All-Star do the honors in Texas when they visit the Rangers?

Here’s a glance at what games the Yankees have left and predictions as to what Judge will accomplish:

What games do the Yankees have left in the regular season?

The Yankees have seven games left in the regular season, starting with a three-game series against the Orioles.

Here is the full Yankees’ remaining schedule for the regular season:

  • Friday, Sept. 30: Home vs Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET; TV - Amazon Prime Video
  • Saturday, Oct. 1: Home vs. Orioles, 1:05 p.m. ET; TV - YES, MLBN (out-of-market only)
  • Sunday, Oct. 2: Home vs. Orioles, 1:35 p.m. ET; TV - YES, MLBN (out-of-market only)
  • Monday, Oct. 3: At Texas Rangers, 7:05 p.m. ET; TV - YES, MLBN (out-of-market only)
  • Tuesday, Oct. 4: Double header at Texas Rangers, 2:05 p.m. ET; TV - YES, MLBN (out-of-market only); 8:05 p.m. ET; TV - YES
  • Wednesday, Oct. 5: At Texas Rangers, 4:05 p.m. ET; TV - YES

Does Aaron Judge have better odds hitting a home run at home or on the road? 

Judge’s career home run rate at home is higher than his home run rate on the road. At home, the slugger usually hits one every 13.2 plate appearances, while on the road, he hits one every 16.1 plate appearances.

Technically, though Judge can seemingly hit a run from anywhere at any time, the likelihood he will do so at home in the Bronx is favored. 

Will Judge accomplish the feat this weekend against the Orioles on his home turf, or will the pressure be too much?

How many home runs has Judge hit against the Orioles?

Judge, who currently leads all baseball in home runs (61), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage with (.693), on-base plus slugging (1.119), adjusted OPS+ (212) and runs created (166), has hit 10 home runs against the Orioles so far this season. 

Judge hit his first homer against the Orioles on Tuesday, April 26 at home.

He hit a three-run home run during the eighth inning against Baltimore on Thursday, April 28 at home.

Judge hit another one on Monday, May 16 and two more on Tuesday, May 17 at Camden Yards.

He hit a solo home run during the first inning, as well as a two-run game-tying home run on Monday, May 23 against the Orioles, at home.

Then during the July 22-24 series in Baltimore, Judge hit two runs on Friday, July 22 and one run on Sunday, July 24.

Who are Judge’s opposing starting pitchers for the next seven games?

For the next seven games, Judge will be battling the Baltimore Oriole and the Texas Rangers. 

On the Orioles side, here is the projected lineup for starting pitchers:

  • Friday, Sept. 30: Home vs Orioles; Opposing pitcher: Jordan Lyles
  • Saturday, Oct. 1: Home vs. Orioles; Opposing pitcher: Austin Voth
  • Sunday, Oct. 2: Home vs. Orioles; Opposing pitcher: Kyle Bradish

And now on the Rangers side:

  • Monday, Oct. 3: At Texas Rangers; Opposing pitcher: Martin Perez
  • Tuesday, Oct. 4: Double header at Texas Rangers; Opposing pitcher: Jon Gray
  • Wednesday, Oct. 5: At Texas Rangers; Opposing pitcher: TBD

How has Judge fared against Baltimore pitchers so far this season?

For Friday’s game against the Orioles, Judge has had 14 at-bats against opposing pitcher Jordan Lyles, and has hit two career home runs.

This will be Judge’s first time facing both Austin Voth, who will pitch on Saturday, and Kyle Bradish, who will take the mound on Sunday.

How has Judge fared against Texas pitchers so far this season?

For Monday’s game against the Rangers, Judge has had nine career at-bats against opposing pitcher Martin Perez. He hasn’t hit a home run off the lefty yet. Against Perez the slugger hasn’t seen the ball well, batting .111 and with only one hit in nine at-bats.

On Tuesday, Judge will stand head-to-head with Jon Gray, whom he has not yet faced at the plate.

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