Is Ersanity Finally Coming to an End?

Ersan Ilyasova didn't have a bad game in last night's 113-95 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, necessarily: He posted a 13-10 double-double on 4-9 shooting in 31 minutes, pretty solid numbers all told. But it was a very frustrating 4-9, involving some quick-trigger threes that didn't need to be rocketed as thoughtlessly as they were, and a couple of his usual step-back jobs that provided Dirk-like magic at the season's beginning, but seem purposefully difficult now that they're not going in as often. Watching Ersan has become an exercise in such frustration, to the point where it covers up all the things he still does pretty well, and makes fans look forward to the days where he's no longer an essential part of this team. 

I should stop at this point and say that I was very, very wrong about Ersan Ilyasova. When he came over with a conditional first-rounder in exchange for Jerami Grant, I found the deal unjustifiable and obnoxiously predicted that Ilyasova would never experience a consequential moment in Philly. But he was absolutely awesome to start the season, one of the most important players on the team (if not an outright squad MVP candidate the first month or two) and one of the biggest reasons we were able to turn around our 0-8 start to the season and become a legitimately competitive ballclub. He shot well, he rebounded well, he gave our roster fluency. I was wrong about Ersan Ilyasova, and for that I formally apologize. 

But even at his absolute peak for the Sixers, I always held out hope we would trade Ersan before the trade deadline. As many good things as he did for the Sixers, particularly alongside Embiid in the frontcourt, I just never believed it could last forever -- particularly not beyond a contract year -- and I figured we'd be smart to cash in on him at the height of his value. Particularly, as Dario Saric started to emerge as a legitimate contributor and the (knock on everything) long-awaited debut of Ben Simmons neared -- both of whom who would end up taking a lot of his minutes anyway -- Ilyasova looked more and more like a luxury, and not an essential part of this team. 

Sadly, though Ersan would likely still have value to a team in need of a floor-stretching four, his value may already have crested some. January was his least-efficient month of the season, with his shooting dropping from 47% to 43% and his three-point shooting from 40% to 35%, his offensive rating dipping well below his defensive rating, and his usage rate become unsustainably high. He can still pull out a game like Sunday's 31-point, 11-rebound night in Chicago (albeit in a decisive loss), but even with that game, he's 4-19 from three in his last four contests, including an 0-3 night from deep against Houston that finally brought his incredible streak of 41 consecutive games with a triple to an end. 

It might not be the worst thing, though -- if Ersan's productivity continues to dip, it will further erode his trade value, but it'll also decrease the likelihood of the team re-signing him to a mega-deal in the off-season. Signing Ilyasova to big money for multiple years could prove disastrously short-sighted, both given his history of underperforming after contract years and given the glut of frontcourt players the Sixers already need to find minutes for, which should prove only more crowded in the days to come. If all Ersan ever gives off is one stellar half a season of professional basketball, that's already more than we ever could have asked for from him. Let's play out the string with him, and cut ties before the irritating memories start to outnumber the good.

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