Breaking Down Sixers' NBA Draft Lottery Odds, Scenarios - NBC 10 Philadelphia

Breaking Down Sixers' NBA Draft Lottery Odds, Scenarios



    Breaking Down Sixers' NBA Draft Lottery Odds, Scenarios
    Breaking down Sixers' NBA draft lottery odds, scenarios

    The 2017 NBA draft lottery is upon us.

    On Tuesday night, the Sixers will find out where and how many times they will select on June 22. They could have two first-round picks, depending on the ping-pong balls, and four second-round selections.

    Let's explore the multiple scenarios the Sixers are facing when the results are revealed in New York City.

    The Sixers finished with the fourth-worst record in the NBA (28-54), giving them an 11.9 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick on their own. 

    They also have pick swap rights with the Kings (32-50), who have a 2.8 percent chance of getting the top pick. The Sixers gained those rights from the trade involving Nik Stauskas in 2015. 

    Combine those two scenarios and the Sixers have a cumulative 14.7 percent chance of getting No. 1, 15.1 percent chance of No. 2 and 15.4 percent chance of No. 3. 

    The Nets (20-62) have the highest chance of all teams at 25.0 percent. Their pick, however, conveys to the Celtics stemming from the 2013 trade involving Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. 

    The Kings' swap rights have value, but it's the potential of the Lakers' pick that Sixers fans have been eyeing for a while now. The Lakers had the third-worst record (26-56) this season and have a 15.6 percent chance to end up with the No. 1 pick. 

    The pick in play was originally acquired in 2015 through the three-team Michael Carter-Williams trade. This year, it is top-three protected. If the Lakers end up with the fourth pick or below, it is heading to Philadelphia. The Sixers have a 53.1 percent chance to get the Lakers' 2017 pick, which becomes unprotected in 2018.

    Should the Lakers' pick fall out of the top three, the Sixers have an 8.7 percent chance of having two picks in the top four, a 39.6 percent chance of two picks in the top five, a 52.3 percent chance of two picks in the top six, and a 53.1 percent chance of two picks in the top seven. 

    If the Sixers get the No. 1 pick and the Lakers' pick remains top-three protected, it is a win for the Sixers. They would have first dibs on an impact player and rights to the Lakers' unprotected pick next season. The possibility of guard Markelle Fultz and, barring a major turnaround in L.A., another lottery pick next season? That would be a successful draft. 

    Things get interesting when two picks are involved. 

    When it comes to multiple selections, the ideal situation for the Sixers would be the first (their own or the Kings) and fourth pick (the Lakers). They could address needs in both the frontcourt and on the wing with players such as Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum and De'Aaron Fox. In selecting two top-five players, the Sixers could really begin to shape their future with these two picks and a foundation of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Dario Saric already in place.

    The biggest value of landing two picks, though, could be the trade value. The Sixers have more than enough young pieces to build upon. What they don't have is high-caliber, established talent. 

    The Sixers could, as a hypothetical example, package the lower pick with Jahlil Okafor. They have remained open to trading Okafor this offseason and the inclusion of a pick could bolster the return. Instead of spending money in free agency, the Sixers could acquire a targeted, more veteran player through a trade that involves a pick. 

    The same train of thought applies if the Sixers get two selections, say, later in the top five or six. Players like Malik Monk and Jonathan Isaac are deservedly lottery picks, but would the Sixers need both at this stage in their development? In order for the Sixers to take the next step, they have to add experience to their roster. In a situation like this, the Sixers could benefit from using one of two picks as a trade piece. 

    How will the Sixers' results shake out? Embiid will be representing the team on stage when the order is announced, trusting the draft lottery process.