It's been nearly two years since the Sixers traded Michael Carter-Williams for the Lakers' protected first-round pick and it remains an abstract asset.
The pick didn't convey in 2015 (top-five protected) or 2016 (top-three protected). It is top-three protected again for the upcoming draft, then completely unprotected from there.
The Sixers' worst-case scenario is the Lakers land a top-three pick again and the Sixers have to wait another year, which obviously gives the Lakers an additional year to improve their team and finish somewhere closer to the middle of the league than the bottom.
But there's a chance - a pretty good chance, actually - that the pick does convey for the 2017 NBA draft and gives the Sixers one more young building block.
As of the morning of Christmas Eve, the Lakers have the seventh-worst record in the NBA at 11-22. The Nets, Sixers, Suns, Mavericks, Timberwolves and Heat all have worse records.
If the Lakers finish exactly where they are now, they'd have a 15 percent chance of landing a top-three pick. So if the season ended today, there would be an 85 percent chance the Sixers get the pick.
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Now obviously, the season doesn't end today. And with how poorly the Lakers have played lately, it's safe to assume they won't finish with the seventh-worst record but rather the fourth or fifth-worst. The Lakers are 1-11 in December, their only win coming over the Sixers. In the other 11 games, they've allowed an average of 112 points. The Lakers' point differential, typically an indicator of a team's true talent level, is fourth-worst in the NBA this season.
Of the teams below the Lakers in the standings, the Timberwolves seem most likely to move ahead. Minnesota has disappointed but has three young studs who are only getting better in Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach Lavine.
The Nets and Suns are worse than the Lakers and will likely finish with worse records. The Sixers are about an equal team. The Mavs and Heat have the potential to improve, but both will likely focus on the future instead, which could mean subtle late-season tanking.
Here's why the positioning matters:
• If the Lakers finish with the NBA's fourth-worst record, they'd have a 37.8 percent chance of cracking the top three and keeping the pick.
• If the Lakers have the fifth-worst record, their chances at cracking the top three drop to 29.1 percent.
• The team with the sixth-worst record has a 21.5 percent chance at the top three.
• The team with the seventh-worst record has a 15.0 percent chance.
• The team with the eighth-worst record has a 6.8 percent chance of getting a top-3 pick.
There are significant changes for the teams in those 4th-8th positions, especially between 7 and 8.
It's also worth noting that if the Lakers are not one of the bottom-five teams, their only pick possibilities are exactly where they are, worse than where they are, or the top three. So for instance, say the Lakers finish with the seventh-worst record, they can only pick 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 8th or 9th.
The best possible scenario for the Sixers this year would be getting the fourth overall pick from the Lakers. They can get it only if the Lakers are one of the four worst teams.
The chances of the Sixers' getting that fourth overall pick from the Lakers are:
• 8.5 percent if the Lakers finish 4th-worst
• 23.8 percent if the Lakers are 3rd-worst
• 31.9 percent if they're 2nd-worst
• 35.8 percent if they have the worst record in the NBA
A lot can change between now and Game 82 but that's where things sit now. The Lakers have the NBA's ninth-most difficult remaining schedule based on win percentage of future opponents.
