It's pretty clear that the Phillies have run out of gas, regressing to their true talent level in the latter stages of a long season.
As poorly as they've played for 35 days now, the Phils do still have a puncher's chance in the NL East. They enter Monday night 4½ games behind the Braves with 20 to play. They haven't been five games back at any point all season.
Phillies (74-68) vs. Nationals (71-72)
Jake Arrieta (10-9, 3.61) vs. Erick Fedde (1-3, 6.00)
First pitch: 7:05 p.m.
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Streaming: NBCSportsPhiladelphia.com and the NBC Sports App
Phillies Pregame Live begins at 6:30 p.m. ET
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Jake Arrieta starts Monday night. He and Aaron Nola have a combined 2.39 ERA in their 25 starts against NL East opponents this season.
The problem is the Phillies' other starting pitchers have a combined 5.41 ERA in the other 35 games.
The Phils are 28-32 against the NL East. Both the Nationals and Mets have better divisional records.
The Braves are 42-21 against the NL East ... which is the equivalent of winning all 21 series they've played.
To the Phillies' benefit, they do have both Arrieta and Nola pitching in this series against the Nats. In 10 days, the Phils go down to Atlanta for four crucial games. Everyone except Zach Eflin is slated to start that series.
Another opponent with a high ERA
It hasn't mattered for much of the season the caliber of starting pitcher the Phillies face. They've made so many anonymous arms look like top-of-the-rotation starters.
The Phillies have faced 32 starting pitchers this season who entered with fewer than 10 career starts - rookies and spot starters. They've been held to two runs or fewer by 18 of those 32 pitchers.
Tonight, they draw another one in Erick Fedde, who has a 7.08 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 10 career starts. Fedde has just one quality start in seven tries this season.
The forecast
The rain started this weekend and has been nonstop in Philadelphia. It finally stopped raining in South Philly around noon on Monday, and, fingers crossed, it looks like the weather will stay away tonight.
There is a 20 percent chance of precipitation from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m.
The Nationals, meanwhile, are exhausted after a rain-plagued weekend. They had a four-hour rain delay Friday night before the game was called, and then they went into multiple rain delays during Saturday's marathon doubleheader as well. Sunday's game was postponed.
