Decision 2020

Biden-Trump Race in Pennsylvania Is Tight, as Expected, New Poll Shows

Pennsylvania is going to be one of the states that decides who is elected in the Nov. 3 presidential election between the incumbent and the former vice president.

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Bucks County Republican chairwoman Pat Poprik isn't surprised to hear that a new Monmouth University Poll released Wednesday shows President Donald Trump gaining ground on Democratic challenger Joe Biden in Pennsylvania.

Poprik believes Trump is the better man for the suburbs like those towns in her county.

"The more this unrest continues in these cities, I think, that’s a big motivator for our voters," Poprik said. "Bucks County enjoys a great quality of life. We don’t want to be Philadelphia. We don’t want to see the looting and the protesters, and I think that’s a big concern for our voters."

Biden, the former vice president who grew up in Scranton, Pennsylvania, is holding onto a small lead over incumbent Republican Donald Trump among Pennsylvania's likely voters, according to the new Monmouth University Poll.

Depending on turnout of Pennsylvania voters, Biden's lead is 1 to 3 points, the survey of 400 registered voters in the Keystone State found. It was conducted Aug. 28-31.

That is a smaller lead than Biden had in a Monmouth poll conducted in July. Earlier in the summer, Biden held a 7 to 10 point lead over Trump.

"This is really a game of inches. The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there, Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said. "It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed."

The decline in support for Biden appears to come from men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties, according to the poll.

Bucks County is one of those 10 swing counties within Pennsylvania.

There are two months until the presidential election. The race between Biden and Trump is tightening in other swing states as well.

In Minnesota, which Hillary Clinton narrowly won in 2016, Trump is trying to flip the state this year. Political observers in that state say things are very tight, though polls show Biden maintains a slim lead.

In another poll conducted at the end of August, likely voters gave Biden a sizable lead in western swing states like Arizona and Colorado.

Anton Moore, a South Philadelphia ward leader who spoke at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, said Democrats in Pennsylvania need to act like Biden is trailing in surveys like the Monmouth Poll.

"We can’t underestimate the ground game and the significance of Donald Trump’s influence," Moore said. "We need to have all boots on the ground, foot on the pedal and getting some work done."

"We need to approach this race like Joe Biden is behind and we need a sense of urgency to make sure people vote," he added.

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