The White Vote could be the deciding factor in Battleground Pennsylvania, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll.
There's a drift slightly back to the McCain camp.
In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, 10/23/08, twelve days until votes are counted, the contest tightens, but Democrat Barack Obama still wins.
In a poll nine days ago, among white voters, McCain was down seven points.
Today, he is down three.
Here are the key takeaways:
Pennsylvania: Obama by 12
41% McCain [R]
53% Obama [D]
Philly region: Obama by 4
45% McCain [R]
49% Obama [D]
Politics
White Voters in PA = Obama by 3
46% McCain [R]
49% Obama [D]
Black Voters in PA = Obama landslide
10% McCain [R]
89% Obama [D]
How meaningful is the white vote “drift” to McCain? “What Democrats remember is that in 2002, five pollsters, including SurveyUSA, predicted Democrat Ed Rendell would defeat Republican Mike Fisher by 17 or more points. Rendell won by 8. The polls overstated the Democrat by 10 points on average. Fast forward to today. SurveyUSA shows Obama up by 12. If Democrat strength is overstated by 10 points, then Obama is only up by 2, as some campaign insiders claim,” said Jay Leve, the CEO of SurveyUSA.
“If Philadelphia fails to carry the mail for Barack Obama, the 21 electoral votes don’t get delivered to the Democrats,” said Leve.
Leve also points out, “There are 6 regions in Pennsylvania. Obama leads in only 1 of the 6 – Philadelphia. 3 of the regions are tied. McCain leads in 2.”
