The last time Philadelphia had any snowfall on Christmas Day was seven years ago in 2010, and that was just a trace of snow from a flourish of flurries. Only five times in the past 129 years have we seen more than an inch of snowfall on Christmas Day.
The last time was 1.1 inch of snow in 2002, and prior to that it was the 4.1 inches of snow that fell 48 years ago on Christmas Day in 1969.
Our last true "White Christmas" in Philadelphia was 2009. That year there was 8 inches of snow remaining on the ground from a 23.2-inch snowstorm a week earlier.
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The odds of a white Christmas in Philadelphia stand at a measly 8 percent -- but that may change this year.
Our mid-December arctic blast has already delivered three snow-producing storms in the past week, and as of December 15 we have nearly four times our average snow for the entire month.
Now, many of the medium- and long-range forecast models are pointing to a large winter storm for much of the nation, including Philadelphia.
However, before you go crazy buying sleds and snow blowers, I must warn these models can shift and timing can change. What looks like snow for us now may shift toward New York or Baltimore, so stay tuned for the next week especially if you plan any travel between next Thursday and Sunday, Christmas Eve.
That said, take a look at the European forecast model track for late next week. It is considered the gold standard of forecast models and it forms a large winter storm deep in the heart of Texas late next week, That tracks from Dallas to New York creating a travel nightmare for many people between Thursday and Christmas Eve.
If this storm develops and the track pans out, we may see snow or a rain snow mix here in Philadelphia.