Glenn’s Blog: Cindy and Our Weekend

If you have outdoor plans early Saturday, you may want to change them a bit to avoid the downpours.

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NOAA
That’s a map of the entire U.S., by the way, so it’s clear that the circulation around what was Tropical Storm Cindy is HUGE. You don’t need a hurricane to cause massive flooding-it is more about how big an area the circulation covers. And there was plenty of flooding along the Gulf Coast in the past couple of days.
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NBC Newschannel
Tropical Storms obviously weaken as they track inland. But it’s mostly the wind that dies. Sometimes the rain actually increases. That depends on how fast the storm moves. Tropical systems that hit the Gulf Coast often stall, since upper-level winds that steer the storms tend to be weak in summer-especially in the Deep South. This time, though, it’s going to move. The upper winds will determine where the core of what is left of Cindy moves.
nWHAT’S THE FUTURE TRACK?
nThat one is pretty obvious. Just follow the winds. The computer models have been in amazing agreement on the future track over the past 24 hours. And that track takes it right over our area Saturday morning. First, the track of the LOW pressure center itself:
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South Florida Water Management District
The LOW pressure center may be hard to find by the time it gets here, but we’ll be able to track the rain all the way to the coast-and beyond. Here is the rainfall prediction from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC):
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NOAA
The map above takes the entire storm into account, so you can see that our area will see much less rain than that red and purple area from Louisiana to Western Pennsylvania. We are expecting about 1 to 1 ½ inches of rain. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but most of it should fall during just a few hours Saturday morning. And it might be even less than an hour. One high-resolution model just shows a narrow band of tropical downpours and thunderstorms.
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This is a computer model valid for 8 a.m. Saturday with a small band of heavy showers/storms.
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Pacific Park
Once this area of rain races through, the rest of the weekend looks nice-especially Sunday, with sunshine and low humidity.
nSo, if you have outdoor plans early Saturday, you may want to change them a bit to avoid the downpours. If only every summer weekend was like this!
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