After two elections of mostly playing defense in New Jersey congressional races, Democrats are showing signs of making a concerted push to win some Republican-controlled seats in the 2014 elections.
A year before voting, the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted central New Jersey's 3rd District, where Republican Jon Runyan last week announced he would not seek re-election, and southern New Jersey's 2nd District, held by Republican Frank LoBiondo for nearly two decades. Democratic candidates have begun campaigning in both districts.
So far, national Republican groups have not gotten visibly involved in campaigns in Democrat-held districts. Each party currently holds six seats in the state.
The Democrats' push meant an early start for the 2014 race. The DCCC has been organizing in both districts since summer, and now Democrats with deep backing are running in both.
Bill Hughes Jr., a lawyer and son of a congressman who represented the 2nd District from 1975 until 1994, is running against LoBiondo in a district that covers the southernmost part of the state.
And last week, Aimee Belgard, a Burlington County freeholder, announced her candidacy in the 3rd District, which stretches from the Philadelphia suburbs to the shore.
Her supporters handed out a list of more than 50 current and former Burlington County elected officials who have endorsed her.
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The dynamics of that race changed the day before Belgard formally entered with a speech at Paulsdale, the Mount Laurel home where early-20th century abolitionist Alice Paul once lived. That's because Runyan, a former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman, announced he would not seek a third term next year. He said he wanted to spend more time with his family, but Democrats have read his decision partly as a sign of frustration with last month's partial federal government shutdown. Runyan, who always said he did not want to make a career of politics, voted against the shutdown.
Republicans have represented the area now covered by the 3rd District for more than a century, with the exception of the two years when John Adler held the seat before being ousted by Runyan in 2010 as tea party-backed political outsiders helped Republicans take the majority in the House.
But Democrats point out that President Barack Obama won in the district, as have Democratic U.S. Senate candidates.
And Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew handily withstood a challenge last week for his seat in a district that includes much of the 2nd Congressional District
Brigid Harrison, a Montclair State University political scientist, said there are reasons to think Democrats could take both seats, but she said history gives them a better chance in the open 3rd than in the 2nd.
"Ninety-six percent of incumbent members of Congress who run for re-election win,'' she said. "We have to keep that in mind when we talk about those competitive districts.''
Runyan's win over an incumbent was the first one for a New Jersey congressional challenger since 1998. Other Republicans ran attention-grabbing, closer-than-expected races against longtime Democrat lawmakers in 2010, especially, but could not muster wins.
Belgard is banking that voters in the 3rd will remember the shutdown and hold Republicans responsible. The shutdown had a particularly large impact on her district, which is home to Joint Base McGuire Dix Lakehurst, where more than half of the nearly 7,000 employees were furloughed.
"In Washington,'' Belgard told supporters as she announced her campaign, "the government shutdown was a political game.''
While there's not a Republican candidate running against her yet, Ian Prior, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, is clear on what his party is likely to emphasize in a campaign there.
"If Washington Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking that they have a chance in 2014,'' he said in an email, "I suggest that they start watching the news and taking note of the disastrous implementation of Obamacare, the President's slipping approval ratings in New Jersey and the poor showing by Barbara Buono in the governor's race.''
