IPO Outlooks: Analyst Sees Diverging Paths for Airbnb and DoorDash

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A rush of analyst calls have come out on newly public companies Airbnb and DoorDash.

Needham, the most bullish, gave a buy rating and $200 price target for both, joining Jefferies, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank with optimistic outlooks.

Not everyone agrees. One of those companies has a lot better footing than the other, according to Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management. He calls Airbnb a "natural beneficiary of the post-Covid world."

"I do like Airbnb much more than I like DoorDash," Schlossberg told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday. "If you're betting on the idea that the pandemic is over, then Airbnb's business is just about to have its best days in front of it, whereas DoorDash's business has already had its best days because of all the demand that we've had for takeout."

Airbnb and DoorDash trade just above $139. DoorDash opened for trading on its Dec. 9 IPO at $182; Airbnb opened at $146 in its debut a day later.

Still, Schlossberg is wary about both for now.

"I think I'm a short-term skeptic. Let's just start with the point that both companies are grossly overvalued, and that the only way you're going to play this is if you have a three- to five-year investment perspective or you're just betting on very near-term momentum to take them higher," he said.

Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, also sees both stocks as slightly overvalued though he's bullish over the longer term. Airbnb, for example, should head higher so long as it can hold within its support range of $131 to $139 in the near term, he said on the same "Trading Nation" interview.

"If not, new lows should be expected," he said.

At its bottom, on Dec. 15, Airbnb dipped to $121.50. It reached $174.97 at its peak on Dec. 22.

"I like the company longer term. It's a high-margin business," Gordon said. "The only real cost to Airbnb is the website and functionality. The financials showed really impressive resilience during the pandemic. Revenues dropped all the way down to about $330 million in Q2 of 2020 but came all the way back to about $1.3 billion in Q3 of 2020."

Its third-quarter revenue was down 19% from a year earlier as the company faced weaker demand during the pandemic.


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