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A ‘Pleasant' Surprise: Strong Job Numbers, Low Layoffs Show No ‘Major Indicators' of a Recession, Economists Say

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Job openings were up and layoffs were down in April, shutting down fears that a recent rise in job cuts could be the start of a growing trend.

Openings increased to 10.1 million last month, up from 9.6 million in March, according to the Department of Labor's latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report. Opportunities are growing across retail trade; health care and social assistance; and transportation, warehousing and utilities. And 6.1 million people were hired into new jobs, on par with the previous month.

Meanwhile, though layoffs from major tech, finance and media companies continue to command headlines, cuts across the job market dipped to 1.6 million for the month of April, down from 1.8 million in March, and made up just about 1% of the workforce.

Experts worried a rise in layoffs could signal the start of a continuing trend, "so we were pleasantly surprised layoffs fell down closer to February levels after rising in March," Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute tells CNBC Make It.

It's still a favorable job market to applicants and workers, she says, with "very little to indicate the labor market is cooling off."

People are worried about job security and staying put

Even so, layoff news is having a chilling effect and more people are staying put in their current jobs. Some 3.8 million people left their jobs last month, or 2.4% of the labor force, which is the lowest level since February 2021, but on par with pre-pandemic numbers.

Churn is coming down from record numbers through the last few years, when some 4 million people were quitting every month during the Great Resignation.

But there are still opportunities in some pockets of the labor market, particularly in leisure and hospitality roles. Across the job market and as of April, there were 4.4 million more jobs than people to fill them. However, the gap has closed by 24% in the last year, and cooling wage growth also means there aren't any major talent shortages across the board, Gould says.

Workers have less power than they did a year ago

Despite surprisingly resilient April numbers, workers have less bargaining power today compared with a year ago, says ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak. Worker leverage fell by 28.4% in the last year, measured by the ratio between quits and layoffs.

"It quantifies the degree to which the balance of power has shifted back from job seekers and workers to employers as the economy has recovered from the pandemic and staffing shortages have become less widespread an issue," she wrote for ZipRecruiter.

In the last year, job openings have fallen 14.1%, quits have fallen 15.7%, and layoffs have risen 17.8%.

Overall job openings are down by 16% from a peak in March 2022 but more sharply — by 36% — for online job postings, according to ZipRecruiter. The largest drops in online job postings are in technology, business, transportation and storage, and finance and insurance jobs with openings down by at least 50% — several sectors that have resorted to layoffs after over-hiring during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, job openings in education, agriculture, health care, and sports and recreation remain steady.

'No major indicators of an oncoming recession'

Some experts say the latest numbers are signs of a job market that's still revving up instead of slowing down, and should be good news to people worried about a downturn.

"There are no major indicators of an oncoming recession in this data," said Rachel Sederberg, a senior economist with Lightcast, during a press briefing. "The labor market is still hot, and while it's cooled some, it's still quite warm."

Gould says there isn't enough data to prompt the Fed to be worried about an "overheated" job market or to tamp down on unchecked wage inflation. However, she says, "I have concerns that if the Fed keeps raising rates, that could lead to a recession."

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