This is from the National Weather Service national center in DC…today..
...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...
The headline gets a little more ominous each day, and this makes sense, since the threat for the East Coast has increased each day. It’s interesting that many reports today have said something on the order of: “the track has changed”. If you’ve been reading these blogs since Monday, our thinking really hasn’t changed-Sandy was not going out to sea, and was a major threat to parts of the East Coast.
It’s surely not a surprise to me that The National Hurricane Center and many others were unfortunately influenced by the American model, the GFS. The European model has been consistent with Sandy since Sunday, bringing it much closer to the East Coast.
The GFS has now come to an overall solution much closer to the EURO.
Here are today's ensembles:
I know they’re hard to read. Just try to find our area on the map, in general. The center of all those circles is the eye of the storm. Almost all are close to us. The more circles, the stronger the storm. Now remember, this is the GFS, not the EURO! Almost complete agreement on the overall picture.
Here’s the latest EURO:
The EURO is still farther west than GFS, but not by much. Other models now, NOGAPS from the Navy, and the Canadian are also in the same general area.
The threat of at least a significant impact from Sandy has increased again today, as has the likelihood of a landfall along the U.S. East Coast.
Here’s generally what to expect HERE, depending on where landfall is:
Direct hit DE/NJ area:
Flooding-local and river
Major coastal flooding
Direct hit New England:
The weather will start to go downhill Sunday. A Hurricane Warning and evacuations could be in effect by then for coastal areas.
Complications are the full moon on Oct. 29, which will make any coastal flooding worse. And leaves will be a problem. Those still on trees will make it easier for some to come down, causing more power outages. Leaves on the roads will make it extra slippery. And other leaves will clog storm drains.
Air travel will be a nightmare, with flights canceled from DC to Boston, with many more big delays.
HURRICANE'S PREVIOUS SANDY BLOGS: