“Hurricane” Previews Winter Forecast — Cold Or Warm?

One day left until the forecast of the season

Thanks to all of you who have commented on my last blog or e-mailed me in the past couple of months asking for my winter forecast.

It's almost here -- only hours to wait.

Most of those who ask for the winter forecast want it to be a cold and snowy one. Those who have the greatest interest in weather like it snowy, stormy or both. That's what got us interested in weather in the first place.

I became interested in both winter storms and hurricanes at the age of 10, so I understand the passion many of you have. I have that same passion.

But, loving wild weather doesn't mean, as professionals, that we’re going to predict it will happen.

Everyone has a bias of sorts (it’s only human), but our job as meteorologists is to understand our biases and adjust for them.

I have been accused in the past of having "a warm bias" by a number of e-mailers and those commenting on the wonderful Eastern U.S. Weather Forum (check it out!) They claim that I don’t predict enough cold or snow.

Being accused of a warm bias by snow and cold lovers is a good thing. If they were constantly happy with my forecasts I would have a cold bias like them.

Some of you are going to like my winter forecast and others won't. I can assure you that I have spent a lot of time (months) researching and trying to learn more about seasonal forecasting.

Seasonal forecasting is a whole different animal than daily forecasting -- most meteorologists are not interested in doing this type of forecasting. Many don’t even believe it's possible to predict winter in November.

I haven’t been right all the time (I'd say about 7 of 11 right in the past), so don't take the forecast as a guarantee only as a forecast.

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