<![CDATA[NBC 10 Philadelphia - Philadelphia Weather News and Coverage]]>Copyright 2016http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories http://media.nbcnewyork.com/designimages/NBC10_40x125.png NBC 10 Philadelphia http://www.nbcphiladelphia.comen-usMon, 26 Sep 2016 06:42:48 -0400Mon, 26 Sep 2016 06:42:48 -0400NBC Owned Television Stations <![CDATA[Today's Forecast]]> Sun, 25 Sep 2016 07:55:15 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/185*120/Glenn_schwartz_sheena_parveen_1.jpg

High temperatures slipped into the low to mid 70s Saturday, and the forecast calls for 70s to continue Sunday. In fact, Sunday will be a perfect fall day. Winds will remain light, and sunny conditions are forecast.

Best chance of much-needed rain is Tuesday morning. Chances of rain may return by Friday, and potentially into the following weekend.

Sun: Sunny and cool. High 74

Mon: Partly Sunny. High 74

Tue: Chance of showers, mostly through the morning. High 73

Wed: Partly sunny. High 74

Thu: Partly cloudy. High 72

Fri: Chance of showers. High 75


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<![CDATA[StormRanger10: Delivering You Accurate Weather Forecasts]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 16:16:52 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/stormrangerrain.jpg

NBC10’s exclusive StormRanger10 mobile radar truck is a one-of-a-kind vehicle that has a live, high-powered Doppler Radar that enables StormRanger10 to get out ahead of a storm. StormRanger10 can track storms wherever they are with a higher degree of accuracy and with more detail than ever before.

From increased visibility in the heart of a storm to the ability to alert people in real time that a tornado has touched down because it can detect actual debris on the ground, StormRanger10 is the latest addition to NBC10’s expanding weather arsenal designed to keep you and your family safe when severe weather strikes.

"This radar technology and mobile configuration is a first for any TV station or network of stations in the U.S," said Richard Stedronsky, a meteorologist and director of strategic business development and partnerships at Enterprise Electronics Corporation. "NBC-Telemundo is the first to deploy this fleet of mobile doppler radars in the nation."

"We are boosting our weather forecasting capabilities by building, from scratch, the first-of-its-kind fleet of mobile weather radars in the country because we know how important weather is to our viewers," said Valari Staab, President, NBCUniversal Owned Television Stations. "All of our stations will have access to this groundbreaking weather technology so they can deliver even more lifesaving weather information to their communities."

Glenn's Blog: Why StormRanger10 is so important »

So what makes StormRanger10 so unique in delivering you the most accurate forecast?

When severe weather approaches, NBC10 now has the ability to dispatch StormRanger10 to wherever the storm is going to strike. Using X-band, dual-polarization Doppler radar, StormRanger10 can provide our meteorologists with more detailed observations than any normal fixed radar can provide, giving them — and you — a hyperlocal look at the storm.

See StormRanger10 radar in action here »

"When you start to get over 100 miles away from the radar, the radar beam from a fixed radar is too high in the atmosphere to see lower weather phenomena,” said Stedronsky, whose company provides the new radar system in StormRanger10. "But that’s where severe weather takes place -- in the lowest parts of the atmosphere. With StormRanger, you can take your viewers to the weather and gather information that a traditional fixed radar could be missing.”

StormRanger10's radar, which has a maximum range of about 100 miles, will update about once every 60 seconds. These updates mean you'll be up-to-the-minute when tracking how and when the weather will impact you in your crucial locations such as your home and where you currently are. Our app users will receive push alerts when StormRanger10 is activated, allowing them to get a closer -- and more accurate -- look at the weather in their neighborhoods.

By driving StormRanger10 close to actual storms, NBC10 will be able to give a detailed look that TV stations never have been able to do before. Fixed radars may miss certain weather events due to terrain or blockages due to buildings in a downtown area. But StormRanger10 can fill in those gaps in coverage, and in turn provide a more complete picture of what is happening now and what those immediately in the crosshairs of a severe storm can expect.

Mobility is StormRanger10’s big advantage over fixed radar during severe thunderstorms. By positioning StormRanger10 wherever severe storms are about to strike, meteorologists will get a better idea of how the storms are forming, how severe they are and where and how fast they’re moving.

"This advanced look that you’ll get from a StormRanger means you’re giving more accurate and timely information to a viewer,” Stedronsky said.

Get accurate 10-day and hourly forecasts here »

In addition to radar, StormRanger10 has two cameras to give you an up-close look at conditions - one on the dashboard, and one pointed at a reporter riding in the vehicle.

“The information you're going to get on a local level is going to be unprecedented,” said Tom Jennings, president of Accelerated Media Technologies, which did the customization required to integrate the radar system into StormRanger10. “You’re going to get such high-resolution weather telemetry out of these trucks that you’ll know exactly what the weather’s doing in your neighborhood, not just theoretically what it’s doing across your state or county."

See how you can view StormRanger10 online »

Stedronsky says the key to it all is having full control of a mobile radar unit that can be sent to any storm, at any time.

“That’s going to be huge for protecting people and assets and saving lives,” Stedronsky said.

NBC10 is committed to bringing you the most accurate weather information possible, and StormRanger10 is just the latest investment we’re making into weather-related technologies to do just that. StormRanger10 is here to serve your community, and ensure that NBC10 First Alert Weather is your most-trusted source when severe storms strike.


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<![CDATA[What Turned the Schuylkill River Green? ]]> Thu, 22 Sep 2016 06:23:02 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Green-Schuylkill-River.jpg

Eagles fans aren’t the only ones bleeding green in Philadelphia. SkyForce10 captured a green blanket covering part of the Schuylkill River Wednesday. The peculiar shade had some wondering what was in the water.

It turns out that duckweed, a plant that grows in slow flowing areas of the river, was the cause. Recent rain in the area caused the plant to break up and flow downstream. The plant was spotted in the Schuylkill River last month as well.

Duckweed is harmless and is actually a source of food for many animals along the Schuylkill. The Philadelphia Water Department said the green color will disappear from the river once temperatures cool down in our area.



Photo Credit: NBC10.com]]>
<![CDATA[DOWNLOAD the NBC10 App for Latest Weather]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2016 22:30:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/215*120/Follow+Storm+on+NBC10+App.JPG
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Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[Flood Warning Along Philly Creek, Advisories in South Jersey]]> Mon, 19 Sep 2016 13:22:37 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/212*120/Philly+Heavy+Rain+Radar.JPG

The first significant rain in weeks brought a Flood Warning to Philadelphia and flood advisories to surrounding areas Monday morning.

The National Weather Service issued the warning for parts of Philadelphia, especially the area near the Frankford Creek Monday morning.

"Rainfall totals in excess of one inch will cause minor flooding along the Frankford Creek in Philadelphia," said the weather service.

Up to an inch or more of rain could fall as thunderstorms and heavy rainfall hits, said the weather service.

The National Weather Service also issued flood advisories for poor drainage and flood-prone areas in Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester and Ocean counties.

Shortly after noon, with most of the heavy rainfall out of the area, but with more rain coming, the flood advisories extended to Kent and New Castle counties in Delaware as well as Salem, New Jersey.

Expect highs to remain in the 70s as rain remains into the afternoon, said the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team.



Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[No Rain: It's a Drought for Philly, South Jersey]]> Fri, 16 Sep 2016 13:11:28 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Sun+Generic.jpg

Above average temperatures and a dry spell have led us to a drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor recently updated their drought level analysis, categorizing the Philadelphia area and much of New Jersey under the moderate drought level. That is the first level of drought (D1), categorized from D0 (abnormally dry) to D4 (exceptional drought).

Philadelphia has not seen measurable rain at the airport since Sept. 1, and before that, Aug. 21. The forecast calls for a primarily dry week ahead outside of some possible showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

The counties under moderate drought include part of Philadelphia County, as well as lower Montgomery and Lower Bucks counties. Also included are parts of Gloucester, Atlantic and Mercer counties as well as all of Camden, Burlington and Ocean counties.

This year, most areas have seen less than average rainfall. In fact, Trenton, New Jersey's annual precipitation is 7.66 inches below average. Philadelphia is 4.5 inches below. And, Allentown is 5.19 inches below. Reading currently has a 6.17 inches annual precipitation deficit. And, Mount Pocono comes in just over 3.5 inches below. Delaware has fared slightly better, with Wilmington only 1.24 inches below average. Atlantic City has seen just enough rain to put the official reporting station at 2.91 inches above average for annual precipitation.

At this point, one strong and steady storm could help alleviate the deficits.

Only a year ago, Philadelphia saw around 10 inches more rain than in 2016. As a result, some people may start to notice lawns and plants suffering compared to 2015.

Louis Holod, Owner of Holod’s True Value Hardware, said it’s not time to panic, yet.

"Most of the grass here is blue grass, and it goes dormant above 90 degrees," Holod said. "Sixty to 90 percent of it will come back automatically. Then you can do your repairs, and spend a lot less money."

If you’re particularly concerned about your lawn, Holod said you can water the area.

"If it’s small enough, water now. If it’s larger, then I’d hold off until we get just one good rain and you can overseed it, but probably the most bang for your dollar would be lime."

Holod also suggests that if you do water your lawn, do so before 10 a.m. because watering at night can lead to fungus problems. He also said not to aerate your lawn until we’ve seen rain, as the soil may be too dry for aeration to currently work.

]]>
<![CDATA[First Alert Weather: Abnormally Dry]]> Thu, 15 Sep 2016 07:59:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017095215_1200x675_765723715728.jpg NBC10 meteorologist Bill Henley explains the abnormally dry conditions in our area.]]> <![CDATA[Hurricane's Blog: The Case Study for StormRanger10]]> Wed, 14 Sep 2016 15:44:53 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/206*120/StormRanger10.JPG

Why Have a 'Radar on Wheels?'

Radars just aren’t close enough together in the existing fixed radar network. The map below shows all the National Weather Service radars across the country:

[[393432591, C, 825,638]]

The dots are small, but basically our area is "covered" by radars in Ft. Dix, New Jersey; Dover, Delaware; and State College, Pennsylvania. As I explained in a blog when StormRanger10 debuted, they are simply not close enough for equally good coverage across our area.

The biggest radar "gap" in our area is clearly in Chester and Berks Counties. Places outside the yellow area on the map below have the worst coverage of fixed radars. I would call areas in yellow "marginal" for tornadoes, precise rain/snow lines, and small showers. The areas in green are covered the "best."

[[393432391, C, 506,531]]

If we want to get the best look at storms, especially in the areas with the poorest coverage up to now, we need to move the radar to the storms. That is what StormRanger10 does.

Amazing Results From Small Storms

 On Friday, Sept. 9, the radar showed very little on it anywhere in our area. The conventional, fixed radars showed NOTHING in Bucks County and Mercer County. We had sent StormRanger10 to Quakertown, which happens to be southeast of Allentown-in the yellow area on the local coverage map. If any storms were going to develop, we expected them to form (or move to) within 30 miles of our selected site.

Around 5:30pm, StormRanger10 suddenly saw a small but intense shower develop right near Easton, Pennsylvania -- yet, the fixed radar system still showed just light showers at the very same time!

This wasn’t even happening in the main "gap" area, yet the difference was striking (and frankly, surprising). As the showers tracked southeast through Bucks County, we saw our most striking result yet. At 6:15, StormRanger10 showed an intense shower in Trenton, New Jersey, while the fixed radar didn’t show a drop of rain in all of Bucks or Mercer counties. So how could the fixed radars miss that heavy shower?

[[393442151, C, 826, 704]] [[393442461, C, 1104,702]]

The answer had to be that, by the time the Ft. Dix or State College radar beams got to the shower, the beam was too wide. The radar beam is very narrow at first, but the farther it gets from the radar, the wider it gets, and therefore can’t detect as much detail. In this case, they missed some very heavy rain.

Meanwhile, StormRanger10 kept tracking the shower, which was still dumping heavy rain on a small area. And this all happened during our newscasts, so I was able to show the difference on TV-live.

Test Results Even Better Than Expected

As I stated earlier, it was surprising to capture a heavy shower without the fixed radars showing anything-in an area not even in the main radar "gap." We clearly expect future radar beams from the fixed radars to show:

  1. What looks like precipitation, but it’s really just moisture in mid-level clouds and is not reaching the ground (beam gets too high)
  2. The higher parts of rain and snow clouds-missing intensity near the ground
  3. Small and weak radar returns in some places where it is actually raining heavily (beam gets too wide)

We’re excited to see what we find with future thunderstorms, floods, and winter storms. Remember, this is all new. StormRanger10 is the first of its’ kind for TV. And you’ll be able to see the discoveries right along with us by watching NBC10 and/or our APP. [[287977901, C]]



Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[No Rain: Dry Days Inch Philly Region Closer to Drought]]> Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:52:49 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/drought-generic-brown-grass.jpg

Above average temperatures and a dry spell have made the last few weeks of summer feel more like the middle of summer.

Philadelphia has not seen measurable rain at the airport since Sept. 1, and before that, August 21. The forecast Tuesday calls for a primarily dry week ahead as well.

The U.S. Drought Monitor recently categorized the Philadelphia area, the Lehigh Valley and most of New Jersey as abnormally dry. That category is only one level below moderate drought.

This year, most areas have seen less than average rainfall. In fact, Trenton, New Jersey's annual precipitation is 7.06 inches below average. Philadelphia is 3.99 inches below. And, Allentown is 4.61 inches below. Reading currently has a 5.59 inches annual precipitation deficit. And, Mount Pocono comes in just under 3 inches below. Delaware has fared slightly better, with Wilmington only 0.64 inches below average. Atlantic City has seen just enough rain to put the official reporting station at 3.32 inches above average for annual precipitation.

At this point, one strong and steady storm could help alleviate the deficits.

Only a year ago, Philadelphia saw nearly 10 inches more rain than in 2016. As a result, some people may start to notice lawns and plants suffering compared to 2015.

Louis Holod, Owner of Holod’s True Value Hardware, said it’s not time to panic, yet.

"Most of the grass here is blue grass, and it goes dormant above 90 degrees," Holod said. "Sixty to 90 percent of it will come back automatically. Then you can do your repairs, and spend a lot less money."

If you’re particularly concerned about your lawn, Holod said you can water the area.

"If it’s small enough, water now. If it’s larger, then I’d hold off until we get just one good rain and you can overseed it, but probably the most bang for your dollar would be lime."

Holod also suggests that if you do water your lawn, do so before 10 a.m. because watering at night can lead to fungus problems. He also said not to aerate your lawn until we’ve seen rain, as the soil may be too dry for aeration to currently work. [[287977901, C]]



Photo Credit: NBC]]>
<![CDATA[Polar Bears Trap Meteorologists in Russia]]> Tue, 13 Sep 2016 11:45:20 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/GettyImages-82275695.jpg

Polar bears may not look frightening from far away, but for five Russian meteorologists, they have become quite terrifying. 

For almost two weeks, five meteorologists stationed on one of the Izvestiy TSIK islands, located 2,800 miles from the country’s capital, have been stranded inside their weather station due to the presence of the bears. 

Polar bears are normal in the area, though their population has more than doubled in 2016, NBC News reported. 

The meteorologists themselves aren’t in danger, but some of their work has been halted because it's been too dangerous to leave the station. 

The weather bureau in Arkhangelsk has said it will send a ship with supplies such as flares and small explosives to the station in an attempt to scare the polar bears off. 

The bears are an endangered species. In Russia, shooting polar bears is a crime, unless done in self-defense.



Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[High Heat, Below Average Rain]]> Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:02:49 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017057848_1200x675_763346499907.jpg Are we in a drought? NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Krystal Klei explains just how far below average the rain amounts are in our area and how you can keep your plants alive.]]> <![CDATA[Glenn's Blog: Weather Ridiculousness Like 'Rain Bombs']]> Mon, 12 Sep 2016 13:18:14 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/160*120/Old+Farmers+Almanac.jpg

United Airlines-Taking Science Back to Dark Ages
(I’m not making this stuff up. I wouldn’t even joke about something this absurd)

The CEO of United Airlines, Oscar Munoz, was quoted last week:

"…we should definitely be prepped. A very quick example: Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a very nasty winter, particularly in Chicago-one of our main hubs. So as we speak, our operating team is hard at work as to how are we going to accommodate passengers."

(He apparently wasn’t joking either)

United Airlines is the 3rd biggest airline in the world, with $37.5 billion annual revenue. They also have a state-of-the-art Weather Forecasting Center in Chicago. They employ actual meteorologists with actual science degrees.

Obviously, Mr. Munoz didn’t ask his own meteorologists what they thought of the Farmer’s Almanac (or Old Farmer’s Almanac-they are separate publications). If he had, they would have either:
A.    Laughed
B.    Looked at him like he was crazy

Yet he is actually planning to make decisions that will financially impact the company based on a publication with one of the worst reputations for accuracy in the meteorological world.

How do I know they are so bad? I did an extensive research project while at Penn State, and verified decades of forecasts for multiple cities. The results: the forecasts were statistically significantly WORSE than even predicting average. That’s right-you can flip a coin and do better than what you read from these entertaining, yet lacking-forecast-accuracy publications.

90-Day Forecast: For 'Suckers' Only

Weather forecasting has improved steadily in recent decades, mainly due to better computer models. But nearly all meteorologists agree that predicting daily weather beyond two weeks just isn’t possible.

Some people even questioned us when NBC10 became the first station in our area to do a 7-day forecast more than a dozen years ago. But before debuting it, we experimented for a full year behind the scenes to prove that we could do it with some degree of accuracy. We even showed some "skill" (a technical term) out to 10 days. Further research has allowed us to debut our "10 Days on 10" forecast in recent months.

As if their widely ridiculed 45-day forecast wasn’t enough, the private weather company AccuWeather introduced their 90-day forecast in April of this year. Yes, they actually make a prediction for every day for the next three months. This includes specific temperatures, and even exact amounts of rain or snow. Pretty impressive, isn’t it? Except for the fact that there’s NO SCIENCE that allows that sort of precision forecasting that far out.  I’m not the only one saying such things. Here are some others commenting on the 45-day forecast from previous news articles:

Dr. Cliff Mass, Professor of Meteorology: "There’s a whole literature on it…..There’s no doubt about it: there’s no forecast skill past two weeks of daily weather."

Alison Bridger, San Jose State Dept. of Meteorology: "It’s inconceivable that they could know it’s going to be rainy in New York on May 9…”

Others are even stronger in their disapproval:

Dr. Steve Tracton: "..hyper-extended forecasts (undermine) the credibility of the science of meteorology. There cannot be skill at those ranges-it goes back to chaos theory."

Jason Samenow -- Capital Weather Gang Chief Meteorologist: "AccuWeather calls its new 45-day weather forecast launched Monday 'revolutionary.' I call it a joke. In reality, it is simply peddling a useless product to people who don’t know better."

AccuWeather describes its’ new 90-day forecast as "a valuable tool for planning further in advance, including the best time of the season for road trips, vacations, and outdoor activities. People should not use long-range forecasts as a strict guide, but rather look at how the weather patterns evolve."

I occasionally get requests from viewers for a forecast months in advance-usually for a big event like an outdoor wedding or graduation. I always tell them that there’s no way to make such a prediction more than a couple of weeks in advance. Even questions about which weekend would be best for a vacation cannot be answered far ahead (at least with any level of accuracy).
Many of these people are desperate -- they need an answer -- ANY ANSWER. Those are the people who go to the Old Farmer’s Almanac or a bogus 90-day forecast.

In the words of Prof. Nolan Doesken from Colorado State: "From a customer perspective, there is a demand for this service whether it’s accurate or not."

As the old saying goes: "There’s sucker born every minute."

'Rain Bombs': The Latest Ridiculous Name

"Bombogenesis" is a pretty funny sounding name. But it’s a real name that describes a real, quantifiable process. If a storm’s pressure lowers enough in 24 hours, meteorologists say it has undergone "Bombogenesis." But what in the world is a "rain bomb?"

This is the picture that started it all (courtesy Bruce Haffner @chopperguyhd):

OK, so it may look a little like an atomic bomb explosion – but it isn’t! Here’s what the real thing looks like:

What some people are calling a "rain bomb" is actually a "wet microburst." You can look it up. It happens-not often, but it happens, especially in places like Arizona, where this one hit July 18.

But this is the era of:
1.    Having to come up with new, spectacular names for everything, and
2.    Blaming everything on climate change

Now, if you’ve read a few of my blogs, you know that I agree with the consensus on climate change. But the overall, accurate, worrisome forecasts for the future are made less credible by those looking to blame every kind of weather (severe or not) on climate change. This is what is known as "a stretch." And the biggest culprit in this case is Bloomberg.com, which often has accurate and responsible stories on the subject. How did this get by the editors?



Photo Credit: AP
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<![CDATA[Cheerleaders, Fans Overcome by Heat at Football Game]]> Sat, 10 Sep 2016 23:58:39 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Extreme_Heat_Forces_Students_to_Change_Routines_1200x675_505292867676.jpg

A handful of high school students and spectators were overcome by heat at a football game in Wilmington, Delaware Saturday, officials said.

Delaware Military Academy took on Wilmington Charter at Baynard Stadium around 1 p.m. when people started falling ill.

The temperature reached 91 degrees in the city with the heat index soaring to 101 degrees, according to the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team.

Firefighters and paramedics were called in to treat those who were overcome by the hot weather.

A cheerleading coach told NBC10 that a few of her cheerleaders were among the heat exhausted. She called the incident "very scary" and said adults were working hard to keep students hydrated.

]]>
<![CDATA[Record Set: For 41 Straight Hours, Temps Stayed Above 80]]> Sat, 10 Sep 2016 08:29:02 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/heatwave-military-generic-2.jpg

A odd temperature record for Philadelphia was apparently set Friday when temperatures remained above 80 degrees from midnight to midnight.

Friday, Sept. 9, 2016, became the first September day on record where the temperature stayed above 80 degrees for the entire 24-hour period. Meteorologists and weather nerds first became aware of the possibility for the weather oddity early Friday evening.

At 5 p.m., the National Weather Service in Mount Holly had predicted a steady fall in the temperature between then and midnight. And on cue, the temperature did fall, but at midnight, it was still 82 degrees, the NWS said in its three-day, hour-by-hour history.

At 2:54 a.m. Saturday morning, the temperature finally dipped below 80 - to 79 degrees, the NWS chart shows. 

Actually, according to the NWS, the temperature in Philadelphia remained above 80 degrees for 41 straight hours, from 8:54 a.m. Thursday through 1:54 a.m. Saturday.

One of Pennsylvania's notable weathermen, Steve Seman of Penn State's Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science even came up with a hashtag. On Friday evening, he and others said a thunderstorm rolling through the city seemed like the only variable standing in the way of all 80s over the next seven hours.

And as the Washington Post points out, nearby cities similarly felt the heat.

Friday was also the hottest Sept. 9 on record, peaking at 96 degrees in the afternoon.



Photo Credit: FILE
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<![CDATA[Heat Causes Another Early Dismissal for Local Students]]> Fri, 09 Sep 2016 21:00:24 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017028995_1200x675_761586243885.jpg This week's high temperatures were an issue for schools, especially those without air conditioning. And some chose to send kids home early because of it.]]> <![CDATA[Heat Is on: Local Schools to Close Early Friday]]> Fri, 09 Sep 2016 14:01:35 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/school+empty+classroom.jpg

Just days after the school year has begun, the school day is already being cut short for Philadelphia public and parochial school students due to excessive heat.

With temperatures expected in the 90s with high humidity Friday, the Philadelphia School District announced that all schools would close at noon Friday. [[392766801, C]]

The heat also will impact after-school activities.

"All after-school activities including all athletic programs and professional development classes scheduled for Friday are canceled as well," said the district in a news release. "All District early childhood centers will remain open as per their regular schedule. In addition, administrative offices will be open according to their regular schedule."

Philadelphia schools dismissed as normal Thursday despite temps pushing into the high 90s. [[392802101, C]]

The district urged parents and students to check the website and call 215-400-4636 for more details.

Philadelphia Catholic schools will also close early Friday, following the school district's lead.

Camden City, Haddon Township and Trenton public schools in New Jersey as well as Reading and Upper dublin Townships schools in Pennsylvania also reported they would close early on Friday.

A list of local schools closed early this week due to the heat and humidity.

Keep up to date with any other school closings or early dismissals posted to the school closing section.



Photo Credit: Getty Images
This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.]]>
<![CDATA[Pa. Schools Dismiss Early Due to Heat, Humidity]]> Thu, 08 Sep 2016 14:55:55 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/202*120/Reading+School+District.JPG

A day after Trenton schools announced early dismissals due to heat, Reading schools made the same decision.

With temperatures expected in the 90s with high humidity Thursday, the Reading School District in Berks County, Pennsylvania announced that all schools would close early.

"Due to the record-setting excessive heat wave expected this afternoon and predicted heat index, ALL RSD students will be dismissed early on Thursday, Sept. 8," said a message on the school district website.

Schools will dismiss as follows:

  • Reading High School - 11:30 a.m.
  • All Elementary Schools - 11:40 a.m.
  • Reading Intermediate High School and All Middle Schools - 12:15 p.m.
  • AM-Pre-Kindergarten - Normal dismissal at 10:45 a.m.
  • There will be no PM-Pre-K and no PM Vo-Tech

Camden city schools also closed early Thursday, dismissing at 1 p.m.

School officials expected to announce Thursday night if they will dismiss students early again on Friday.



Photo Credit: Google Street View]]>
<![CDATA[No Such Thing as 'Hype' or 'Ratings' for Storms like Hermine]]> Wed, 07 Sep 2016 18:39:12 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WEB+Glenn+11pm+forecast+-+23195600_20720952.jpg

How about we start with some of the nastier tweets?

pure fear mongering. Exploited emotions for ratings. Should be embarrassed.

Feel sorry for the the shore businesses who lost $$$ because this fraud chose ratings over scientific fact

anything to say 2 the shore merchants you crushed with your catastrophic warnings

what do you say to those who feel this has been overhyped and cost shore businesses money?

You hyped the whole weather situation at the jersey shore


So what is "hype"?

Merriam-Webster defines hype as: 1. Deception 2. Publicity; especially promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind.

Hermine wasn’t hyped. The threat was real. The threat was for coastal flooding in parts of our region that could have been worse than Sandy. The threat was life-threatening. The threat was acknowledged by every meteorologist who knows anything about hurricanes. There wasn’t much disagreement on the threat.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) & National Weather Service used the term “life-threatening inundation” in their forecasts for our coastline. Their specific forecast for ocean levels from Atlantic City to Rehoboth Beach were literally at or above all-time record levels.

At one time or another, every computer model-from all over the world predicted a major storm taking a rare left turn and tracking dangerously close to the coast. It obviously wasn’t a repeat of Sandy -- not as large or tracking fast directly into the coast. But there were some scary similarities. The main difference was Hermine was threatening when coastal populations had swollen to beyond capacity due to the big holiday weekend. Sandy hit way after the summer season -- only a small fraction of the population of last weekend.


What is our mission as meteorologists?

We are not talking about a science like astronomy, where we can predict to the minute when the next eclipse will start and finish, and to the mile about which areas will see it. This is weather forecasting, which everyone knows is not an exact science. The science has improved steadily in the 40-plus years I’ve been forecasting, but chaos theory says that we can never be perfect.

So, when a life-threatening storm approaches on one of the busiest weekends of summer, what do we do? When the official forecast from the well-respected NHC predicts record coastal flooding, what do we say? Are we “hyping” the storm by relaying these statements? Of course not. It’s called “communication," and it is our responsibility to do it. And we need to communicate it at the same level of concern NHC does. If we don’t, we are being reckless and irresponsible.

What happened to Hermine?

Hermine was a headache to predict even before it became Hermine. The tropical wave originated off the coast of Africa Aug. 18, as the historical peak of hurricane season began. It struggled in its path across the Atlantic, often being predicted to strengthen into a tropical storm, but not doing so until it reached the Gulf of Mexico. It reached hurricane strength in the Northern Gulf before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

The future track looked like a threat to our part of the coast even before it made landfall. The forecast from the world-renowned European Model on Wednesday, Aug. 31, showed a potential future disaster: a hurricane tracking a mere 50 miles off of Cape May by Sunday morning.

The purple area (winds at 5000 feet of 74 to 92 mph) of maximum winds covered virtually ALL of NJ and DE, and even extended west of Philadelphia. Winds would be less at the ground-but not much less. Worse, it had Hermine stalling in the area for days, which would build up the seas to a point where record flooding would be possible in some areas.

The EURO is not only the best overall model in the world, but it has also been the best hurricane model for the past few years. It has even beaten the NHC models specifically designed for the tropics. As you may recall, the EURO was, by far, the best model during Sandy. It was predicting the rare, sharp left turn at the same time other models were tracking it out to sea. The EURO is run 51 times twice a day, and those 51 solutions are averaged into what is known as an “ensemble." I refer to this as “the best of the best." The ensembles showed the same solution. Twenty-four hours later, the EURO showed the same solution: an historic storm for the South Jersey shore and the Delaware beaches.

Other computer models started coming up with the same solution in the next couple of days, adding to the concern. Relying on only one model-even if it’s the best, can be a mistake at times. But when multiple models on multiple days come up with similar, yet rare solutions, it does more than raise eyebrows. So NHC predicted a track and intensity close to the EURO:

The consensus was that Hermine would track about 150 miles off the East Coast, then stall, and then start curving back toward the coast. Their “cone of uncertainty” extended from the Jersey shore itself out to about 300 miles offshore. It turned out that Hermine tracked up to 370 miles offshore! It went SO far east that even a strong and rare left turn days later still didn’t bring the storm as close to the coast as the NHC prediction had.

Compare the actual track below to the predicted one:

Why did Hermine track so far east?

Predicting a hurricane to stall or dramatically change course is, by far, the hardest part of the job. This means that the storm is entering an area with very weak (or changing) “steering currents." These currents are winds thousands of feet up. My former boss at NHC, Dr. Neil Frank used to say: “Hurricanes move along like logs in a river. But, in this case, the rivers MOVE." Modern computer models are much better at predicting these changing rivers, but….

In this case, even a 100 mile error in the forecast track was critical (even 50 miles would be important). So, precision was needed in the hardest part of the track forecast. Unlike with Sandy, the timing of the left turn was off. And that changed everything. Hermine was able to continue tracking east into the Atlantic farther and farther as the stall or turn was delayed. Even moving only 10 mph, a one day delay would mean a 240 mile error to the east. That’s exactly what happened.

Talking about 'uncertainty'

We know hurricane track forecasts won’t be perfect. We know the forecast of this particular storm was tough due to the unusual movement. But we also know that being “wishy-washy” in forecasts causes people to tend to NOT take action. Does the public want forecasts that say: “Well, the hurricane could track this way and lead to a life-threatening situation. Or it could track farther east, and we’ll end up with a nice weekend”?

What would people do if a meteorologist said that? Probably nothing. And if the worst happened, we would have failed as both meteorologists and communicators. Our mission of “protecting life and property” would be ignored.

The governors of New Jersey and Delaware did exactly the right thing by issuing a state of emergency. The consequences of not doing that, and have the storm merely do as predicted could have ended up tragically. And we in the local meteorological world also did the right things, even though they turned out wrong. As one of the rare tweets said:

This reminds me of the saying from one of my former colleagues at NHC many decades ago. He called it "The Meteorologist’s Motto":

“I forecast with great trepidation, and for that I have no regrets. Because when I’m right no one remembers, and when I’m wrong, no one forgets.”



Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[Hermine Makes Westerly Turn Far Off Coast]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2016 12:35:10 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Margate+Dark+Sky+Beach+Hermine.jpg

Hermine on Monday made the westerly turn forecast in earlier models -- but the turn came late enough that our region will continue to feel only minor effects.

The main concerns related to Hermine for the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches continue to be minor threats of coastal flooding at high tide, winds along the shore and a high threat of rip currents in the ocean, NBC10 meteorologist Krystal Klei said. The most serious issue, the rip currents caused by the storm churning out at sea, has led to a number of beaches being closed for swimming during the Labor Day holiday.

Klei said Hermine's latest track, updated by the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. Monday, shows the storm poses a bigger threat now for parts of Long Island, Cape Cod, Boston and Providence. Hermine's peak winds still reached about 70 mph -- near hurricane-force -- on Monday as the storm moved northwest at 6 mph.  

NBC10's First Alert Weather Team is tracking the possibility of light rain along the shore, but otherwise, the majority of Hermine's impact will likely be felt in the form of clouds and wind.

Further inland, weather will stay pleasant, with temperatures reaching into the 80s Monday.

[[392204681, C]]

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued over land while a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect due to the threat of minor and moderate coastal flooding.

"This will continue through midweek until the storm moves farther away," meteorologist Sheena Parveen said.

[[392312611, C]]

 



Photo Credit: Rebecca Banner
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<![CDATA[OCNJ Bans Beach Swimming as Hermine Kicks Up Currents]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2016 08:03:48 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016960748_1200x675_758137923869.jpg Ocean City, NJ closed its beaches to swimmers Labor Day as Hermine continued to churn in the Atlantic, creating dangerous rip currents at New Jersey beaches. NBC10's Pamela Osborne is live in Ocean City with a look at the surf.]]> <![CDATA[Christie on Weaker Hermine: Flood Risk Still Possible for Jersey Shore]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 14:29:28 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WNBC_000000012961741_1200x675_757922371557.jpg New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie discusses his past decisions to order evacuations when storms approach. "This is always a damned if you do damned if you don't situation," Christie said. "I went through this with Irene and Sandy."]]> <![CDATA[Drone Video Shows Storm Damage in Fla.'s Alligator Point]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:08:25 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Alligator+Point+Drive+Damage+Hermine.jpg As Hurricane Hermine slammed into Florida's coast early Friday, the onrushing surf washed out a 5,000-foot stretch of road in Alligator Point. Video courtesy Daniel Martinko.

Photo Credit: Daniel Martinko]]>
<![CDATA[Coast Guard Rescues Kite Surfer]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 11:45:41 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/173*120/9316surfer.jpg

A U.S. Coast Guard crew rescued a kite surfer Saturday after he was pushed far off shore from Fire Island.

The crew of a 47-foot motor lifeboat found the surfer about one mile southwest of Democrat Point and pulled him out of the water, officials said. An emergency medical technician determined that the surfer wasn't injured.

"Cases like this really highlight just how dangerous it is out on the water right now,” said Capt. Andrew Tucci, commander of Sector Long Island Sound. “With the impending storm promising to make things even worse we strongly urge all boaters not to go out, especially paddle boats and other small craft.”



Photo Credit: U.S.Coast Guard]]>
<![CDATA[What to Expect From Hermine]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2016 07:37:11 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/214*120/Hermine+gallery+add+MONDAY+4.JPG Hermine moved further off land Sunday morning as the threat for severe flooding and wind damage along the Jersey Shore and Delaware diminished. Check out the timeline as of midday Sunday.

Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[Here's What Hermine Looks Like at Delaware Beaches]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 09:17:01 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Delaware+Hermine.jpg

Some people are braving high wind and heavy rain to tweet and Instagram from Delaware beaches and coastlines Saturday.

Here's a look from the ground at what Hermine as it arrives in Delaware. New Jersey and Pennsylvania, the storm is on its way.

On Friday, people in Washington D.C. and southern states shared their vantage points of Hermine as the massive storm swept up the coast.

Tropical Storm Hermine continues to crawl up the East Coast, as its wind and precipitation that eventually arrive could cause record-level flooding for the coast south of Atlantic City.

Its northern front of rain began falling in Cape May by late Saturday morning.

Four to five inches of rain could fall on Cape May by Monday afternoon, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.

"Major" flooding is now part of the NWS forecast.

Dangerous Tropical Storm conditions will be present and those who are still considering making a trek down the shore should re-consider, NBC10 First Alert Weather chief meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz warned Saturday morning. In fact, Hermine could become a hurricane again once it hits open ocean late Sunday into Monday.

Winds could reach 60 miles per hour along the Jersey shore, NBC10 is forecasting.

"This is a potentially life-threatening situation," Hurricane said. "There should be a voluntary evacuation by today, Saturday, from coastal areas."

Hurricane said Hermine's path is "very unusual."



Photo Credit: @pangelos
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<![CDATA[Christie: No Mandatory Evacuations Ahead of Hermine]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:54:55 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/195*120/NOAA+Hermine+new.JPG

UPDATE, 12:45 p.m. Sunday:

A state of emergency remains in effect for Atlantic, Cape May and Ocean counties in New Jersey, but Gov. Chris Christie said Sunday that now that Hermine is remaining further offshore than initially predicted, the state of emergency is more of a precaution.

Christie, speaking at a news conference Sunday afternoon, said he declared the state of emergency when record-level flooding was expected earlier as previous models agreed that Hermine would veer toward the coast and strengthen.

The state of emergency makes resources available should the state need them to deal with flooding. Authorities said moderate flooding concerns remain, but major flooding, as earlier predicted, seems unlikely.

Christie urged people to stay safe and avoid going in the choppy water off of New Jersey's beaches. Hermine is creating high storm swells, rip currents and rough waves.

The governor said he is not ordering evacuations from any parts of the Shore at this point. He said updates will be provided if anything changes.


NOTE: Below is an earlier version of this story, when Christie first declared the state of emergency. See update at top.

[[392250911, C]]

Hermine continues to crawl up the East Coast, as its wind and precipitation that eventually arrive could cause record-level flooding for the coast south of Atlantic City.

Gov. Chris Christie declared a state of emergency at 1:30 p.m. for Atlantic, Cape May and Ocean counties. In a statement, the governor's office warned that travel issues and power outages could "make it difficult or impossible for residents to obtain the necessities of life."

"This situation may become too large in scope to be handled by the normal county and municipal operating services in Ocean County, Atlantic County and Cape May County, and this situation may spread to other parts of the State," the statement said.

Delaware Governor Jack Markell also issued a limited State of Emergency for Sussex County, Delaware set to begin at 5 p.m. Saturday.

“Tropical Storm Hermine is a powerful storm that will bring significant rainfall and localized flooding, especially in coastal and Delaware Bay communities in Sussex County,” said Governor Markell.  “I encourage Delawareans and visitors to our state to take precautions and stay tuned to weather forecasts and transportation updates throughout the weekend.”

Hermine's northern front of rain began falling in Cape May by late Saturday morning.

The track of the storm continues to show a big coastal flooding concern with two to four inches of rain possible for parts of South Jersey along the shore and Delaware beaches.

"Major" flooding is now part of the NWS forecast for parts of New Jersey and Delaware.

Dangerous Tropical Storm conditions will be present and those who are still considering making a trek down the shore should re-consider, NBC10 First Alert Weather chief meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz warned Saturday morning. In fact, Hermine could become a hurricane again once it hits open ocean late Sunday into Monday.

Winds could reach 60 miles per hour along the Jersey shore, NBC10 is forecasting.

"This is a potentially life-threatening situation," Hurricane said. "There should be a voluntary evacuation by today, Saturday, from coastal areas."

Hurricane said Hermine's path is "very unusual."

[[392204681, C]]

Just before 5 p.m. Friday, the National Weather Service issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Ocean and Salem counties in New Jersey as well as Kent and New Castle Counties in Delaware that will last until Monday.

"Stay home if you’re already inland. If you must go to the shore, plan on coming back Saturday night at the latest. And tell your friends and relatives the same thing," Hurricane said. "If you live at the shore, be prepared to 'hunker down' for a few days-perhaps without power, and perhaps cut off by flooded roads. And take everything off balconies, porches, and lawns and bring it inside," he warns. 

Hurricane also said the models suggest there will be a "huge contrast" between the shore and areas inland.

In addition to the storm's path, the speed of Hermine remains in question. If the storm stalls off the Jersey and Delaware coasts, the potential for heavy rain and flooding increases both at the shore and inland as far as Philadelphia and the suburbs. [[392208501, C]]

Ahead of Hermine's arrival, rip currents will be a risk for swimmers. The storm could create wave heights of 6 feet or higher Saturday into Sunday and hazardous seas and rip currents could last into the middle of next week, said the weather team.

Get tips for dealing with rip currents

Inland, rain will move from south to north later in the day Saturday and last throughout Sunday. The Lehigh Valley, Poconos and Berks county will see the least amount of rain and lightest winds.

Hermine could nearly stall offshore early next week, and could strengthen again, causing further problems at the shore.

On Friday evening, Mayor Don Guardian of Atlantic City announced the cancellation of two concerts on the beach scheduled for Saturday and Monday. "Due to the significance of the approaching Tropical Storm Hermine, and out of an abundance of caution for concert goers, staff, the bands, and everyone else involved, we have decided to cancel this weekend's beach concerts," Mayor Guardian said in a statement.[[392215141, C]] 

Stick with the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team throughout the weekend as the storm’s track could change. [[287977901, C]]



Photo Credit: NOAA.gov
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<![CDATA[Hermine Preparations in Sea Isle]]> Sat, 03 Sep 2016 00:04:42 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016940452_1200x675_757367363913.jpg As Hermine approaches for the holiday weekend, businesses are already seeing a drop in beach goers. NBC10's Brandon Hudson looks at preparations in Sea Isle.]]> <![CDATA[Delaware Beach-Goers Prepping for Hermine]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 19:38:23 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016939279_1200x675_757226051873.jpg Hermine isn't just hitting the Jersey Shores this holiday weekened. Beach-goers in Delaware were also prepping for the tropical storm, and trying to avoid any issues.]]> <![CDATA[Jersey Shore Prepares for Hermine]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 16:37:13 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016937940_1200x675_757099587997.jpg With Hermine making its way towards our region, shore-goers are making sure they're ready.]]> <![CDATA[Hermine Causes Cancellation of Wildwood Concert]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 12:40:37 -0400 New Jersey's Top 10 Beaches.]]> New Jersey's Top 10 Beaches.]]> http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/wildwood1.jpg The Wildwood Block Party Music Festival was can celled Friday due to threat of inclement weather from Hermine. Meanwhile, organizers of The Beach Concert Series in Atlantic City featuring Blink 182 have made contingency plans to prepare for the storm.]]> <![CDATA[Dramatic Images: Hermine Takes Aim at East Coast]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2016 14:46:01 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/264*120/hurricane+hermine+5.jpg

Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[Florida Man Water Skis Flood Waters From Hermine]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 12:19:39 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Screen-Shot-2016-09-02-at-12.16.14-PM-%282%29.jpg Wesley Chapel resident Robby McLaughlin went water skiing on roadside flood waters on Sept. 2, 2016.

Photo Credit: WTVJ]]>
<![CDATA[Hermine Hits Redington Shores in Florida]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 12:28:17 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Screen-Shot-2016-09-02-at-12.24.33-PM-%282%29.jpg Strong winds, heavy rain in Redington Shores, Florida, on Sept. 1, 2016.

Photo Credit: WTVJ]]>
<![CDATA[Glenn's Blog: Hermine & Labor Day Weekend]]> Thu, 01 Sep 2016 18:09:27 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/herminehurricane.jpg

BAD TIMING
Of all weekends for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to threaten, Labor Day weekend may be the worst. It’s the last chance for many folks to enjoy the beaches. The ocean is way warmer than Memorial Day or the 4th of July. And September can mean nice, comfortable weather compared to the extreme heat of the heart of summer. And now a tricky tropical system will have an impact. But how much of an impact will it have? 

WHAT WE’RE MOST SURE ABOUT
1. Hermine will not be a major hurricane. It will not be another Sandy. A storm tracking from the Gulf of Mexico toward our area must go over land for a long time, which will surely weaken it. On the other hand, Irene, Floyd, Gloria, Sandy, and other names we remember were OCEAN tracks that hit or came close to us.

2. It’s a good thing we haven’t had much rain recently. Anytime a tropical system is predicted to move very slowly (as Hermine will), we look at the potential flood threat. Previous storms that led to serious flooding have come after very rainy periods.

3. The farther you are from the ocean, the less rain and wind you will have by the time it’s over. You also have the best chance of having dry weather at least through Saturday night, and the best chance of clearing Monday. 

WHAT’S YET TO BE DETERMINED
1. As usual, the track will largely determine how much rain, wind, and coastal flooding will occur. Major updates of computer models come every 6 hours, and their forecasts have changed each time.

2. Hermine is likely to stall (or move very slowly) off the coast of New Jersey starting Sunday. Exactly where it stalls is unpredictable this far in advance. Even a 50 mile difference in the stall point can lead to big differences in impacts for us.

3. The moon phase will add to any coastal flooding caused by Hermine. Coastal flooding will be higher the farther south the storm stalls.

4. Ocean temperatures are unusually high off the coast of NJ/DE. A slow-moving Hermine could strengthen as it lingers. If it does, places that start off dry Saturday night and Sunday could get rain later. 

WHY WOULD IT SLOW-DOWN SO MUCH OR STALL?
Take a look at the predicted upper-air map for Sunday morning:[[392076791, C,600,600]] 

Blue areas have below normal pressures, while reddish areas are the opposite. That unusually high pressure in Southeast Canada will act as a “block”, preventing Hermine from racing out to sea like so many previous storms have. 

Below is the result of that block: the Monday map that shows Hermine still offshore (the L), being blocked by a big area of HIGH pressure in the upper right of the screen. So the storm will be spinning around for multiple days, keeping the ocean churned up, causing each high tide to be a problem-perhaps until Wednesday! [[392077131, C,600,600]]

With the addition of higher water levels from the “new moon” (tides are higher with full and new moon phases), the potential for significant coastal flooding increases. The exact wind direction and strength of Hermine will determine just how much of a problem it is. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the entire coastlines of Delaware and New Jersey. The Watch technically only goes until Sunday afternoon, but could be extended well beyond that. The Watch means that Tropical Storm conditions (39+ mph winds) are possible. If it becomes likely, then a Tropical Storm Warning would be issued. 

There is a chance that Hermine will lose tropical characteristics as it drifts in the Atlantic. That’s what happened to Sandy, and it led to tremendous confusion about the storm. Many thought Sandy was weakening, just because it wasn’t technically a hurricane anymore. In this case, Hermine could actually become MORE tropical if it spins around enough for long enough. In any event, an already complicated setup could become even more complicated early next week. 

If you have any interests at or near the shore, please keep up-to-date on developments this weekend. The NBC10 App is a great way to do that-no matter where you are in the area.



Photo Credit: NOAA
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<![CDATA[How Hermine Will Impact Your Holiday Weekend]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 10:40:30 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/GettyImages-598590592.jpg

Get the latest as of Friday

Hermine will impact much of our area this holiday weekend with the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches bearing the brunt its effects, NBC10 First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz says.

Rain will move into Delaware and the most southern points of New Jersey by Saturday afternoon. It'll then spread north as the storm nears.

The Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches will see heavy rain, wind gusts over 40 mph and coastal flooding. Beach erosion is also expected.

"Seas will be huge off-shore," Hurricane said. "It'll be dangerous to go boating."

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued Thursday afternoon for the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches. It is expected to last through Sunday.

Ahead of Hermine's arrival, rip currents will be a risk for swimmers. The storm could create wave heights of 6 feet or higher Saturday into Sunday.

Get tips for dealing with rip currents

Inland, rain will move from south to north later in the day Saturday and last throughout Sunday. The Lehigh Valley, Poconos and Berks county will see the least amount of rain and lightest winds.

[[392073161, C]]

Hermine strengthened into a category 1 hurricane Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. It was downgraded back to a tropical storm while over Georgia Friday morning.

Hermine will nearly stall offshore early next week, and could strengthen again, causing further problems at the shore.

Stick with the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team leading up to the weekend as the storm’s track could change. [[287977901, C]]



Photo Credit: Getty Images
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<![CDATA[Total Solar Eclipse in 2017]]> Thu, 25 Aug 2016 07:02:31 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/212*120/total+eclipse.jpg

North America will see its first total eclipse since 1979 in a year, and some people are planning ahead by booking hotel rooms.

A solar eclipse occurs when the moon crosses between the earth and the sun, which is blocked out. The moon and the Earth will be perfectly aligned for a few minutes on Aug. 21, 2017. 

But viewers in the tri-state area will have to settle for a partial eclipse. The prime viewing spots in the eastern United States include most of South Carolina, central Tennessee and a sliver of Georgia.

Self-described eclipse chaser Mike Kentrianakis told KPCC, a public radio station in California, that the best viewing spots for the total eclipse will be within a 70-mile wide path that stretches from the Pacific Northwest to South Carolina. 

"Oh, it's bigger than the Super Bowl, much bigger," said Kentrianakis

The next total solar eclipse after the 2017 alignment will happen in 2024.

Read more at KPCC.



Photo Credit: AP/File]]>
<![CDATA[Is Climate Change Responsible for Extreme Weather Events?]]> Tue, 23 Aug 2016 18:45:57 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Storm+clouds-566267213.jpg

THIS IS WHERE THE “REAL” DEBATE IS

Ask just about any climate scientist and they’ll tell you that the climate is warming, and most of that warming is due to human activity. Period. But ask if a record flood, or hurricane, or blizzard, or wildfire, or drought has been made worse due to climate change (or global warming, depending on which term you choose). You’ll probably get a lot of different answers. THIS is where debate among climate scientists is REAL.

It’s called “Attribution Science," and it is a rather recent development. For decades, climate scientists and meteorologists kept quoting the same line after each weather disaster: “No single extreme event can be blamed on global warming” (or something close to that). It quickly closed any debate environmental activists tried to start. It was easy. But it’s not easy anymore.

Computer models of future climate have long shown that the future will include:

*more (and worse) heat waves

*more (and worse) droughts

*more (and worse) floods

*more (and worse) wildfires

But the question always was: “How far in the future do we expect this increase to start? “ Many of us talked about how all these above things would happen in decades to come. But a series of incredible record events got some thinking differently. Had the expected future changes already started?

THE BLIZZARD OF ’96: THE TALK BEGINS

I remember questions about the possible effect of global warming on the Blizzard of ’96 in Philadelphia, when we broke our all-time snowstorm record by an amazing amount. The old record: 21.3”. The new record: 30.7”. How can a place with detailed records going back 120+ years break a record by so much? There were a lot of articles about the possible connection, even in our local papers:

http://articles.philly.com/1996-01-19/news/25653806_1_discernible-human-influence-influence-on-global-climate-greenhouse-warming

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/14/weekinreview/ideas-trends-blame-global-warming-for-the-blizzard.html

http://www.newsweek.com/global-warming-176896

….and many more….

But most scientists (including me) repeated the established line: “No single storm can be blamed on global warming.” We even did an in-depth special report on the possible connection. I got the chance to interview the late Dr. Jerry Mahlman, Director of the GFDL, a top government research organization. Even though he said, “The debate is over,” when it came to whether global warming was real (1996!), he scoffed at the idea that the blizzard was caused (or even significantly aided) by global warming.

MORE STORMS, MORE RECORDS, MORE MINDS CHANGED

As the 90s came to a close and the new century began, we started noticing more and more extreme weather-from heat waves and drought to record snowstorms-and incredible floods. With each event, our “defenses” got a bit lower.

All of the below happened in the U.S. There were obviously many others in different parts of the world (info from NCDC-National Climatic Data Center):

1998: severe drought/heat wave- kills 200

1999: severely dry and hot-kills 500

2000: drought/heat wave-kills 140

2001: remnants of Tropical Storm produce 30-40 inches of rain

$11 billion damage-kills 43

2003: record 1-week total 400 tornadoes-kills 51

2004: series of hurricane strikes in Florida-kills more than 150

More than $70 Billion damage

2005: Katrina-kills 1800+. Damage $154 billion

2006: numerous wildfires-kills 28. Record area burned

2008: 2 separate tornado outbreaks-kills 70. Total 320+ tornadoes

2008: massive flooding in Midwest-kills 24. Damage $11 billion

2008: Hurricane Ike (largest on record)-kills 112. Damage $33 billion

2011: Blizzard Midwest to Northeast-kills 36

2011: 4 massive tornado outbreaks-kills 545. Total 746 tornadoes

2011: Drought/heat wave-kills 95. Damage $13 billion

2012: 6 separate outbreaks with 20+ tornadoes-Damage $17 billion

2012: Superstorm Sandy-kills 159. Damage $68 billion

2012: Drought/heat wave-kills 123. Damage $31 billion

2013: Drought/heat wave-kills 53. Damage $11 billion

This was a 15 year period that started getting more and more meteorologists and climate scientists wondering more and more about whether we can ATTRIBUTE at least some of those events to the changing climate.

We started hearing experts saying that “the dice are loaded” toward more extreme events, and that “it’s the atmosphere on steroids." And those who didn’t agree with those statements had to say it over and over. Every time a major disaster occurred, the debate rose up again.

ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE

But most of us needed something more than suspicions. We needed to see a concrete, specific reason for the extremes. What is the cause and effect relationship?

One of the first widely publicized studies was from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers. As you saw above, the year 2012 had numerous extreme events, and that was the year her research became known:

Her theory was that the rapid ice melt in the Arctic was causing:

1. Warming in the Arctic (more of the sun’s rays get absorbed in water than over ice)

2. This leads to less of a temperature contrast from the Arctic to the mid-latitudes and tropics

3. Since jet streams are related to temperature differences, they become “wavier," instead of more west to east

4. This leads to more cut-off LOWS in the upper atmosphere

5. Which leads to more intense and slow-moving storms

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/linking_weird_weather_to_rapid_warming_of_the_arctic/2501/

That seemed like a reasonable cause and effect, and later papers expanded on that theory. It even helped explain the unprecedented sharp left turn that Sandy took. Since her papers came out right around that time, they gained even more publicity. And, in time, other climate scientists either agreed with the theory or did their own research that agreed with it.

That seemed like a reasonable cause and effect, and later papers expanded on that theory. It even helped explain the unprecedented sharp left turn that Sandy took. Since her papers came out right around that time, they gained even more publicity. And, in time, other climate scientists either agreed with the theory or did their own research that agreed with it.

MORE RECORD FLOODS, HEAT, WILDFIRES, TYPHOONS, ETC.

So now, every record-smashing event seems to be tied to climate change. Just recently, the devastating floods in Ellicott City, MD and Louisiana have been added to the list. And, at the same time, major wildfires were hitting California-again.

IT’S NOT THAT SIMPLE

Yes, it would be easy to say that every record event in weather has been created, or made worse, by climate change. But we’ve seen extreme weather and record weather ever since the beginning of time. Weather is naturally variable, so how can we tell that any single one has an “unnatural” aid? Attribution Science is trying to answer those questions.

Below is one such attempt-from the National Academy of Sciences. Some types of extreme events have more obvious ties to climate change than others. Note how both extreme heat and extreme cold are at the top of the list.

 

SO, WHAT WAS THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON LOUISIANA FLOOD?

It will take months of research for respected scientific papers to come out and see how much of a tie there is to climate change. Attempts are being made for those attribution studies to come faster than they used to.

Was there more moisture in the atmosphere because of the increase in water vapor due to climate change? Yes. But was it enough to say that there wouldn’t have been devastating flooding without climate change? The added moisture probably made it worse, but was it 2% worse, 20% worse, or more? The science is still too primitive to say with confidence.

Below are a few articles related to this subject, if you’re interested in more detail.

http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Attribution-Extreme-Weather-Brief-Final.pdf

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/climate-change-louisiana.html?smid=tw-nytimesscience&smtyp=cur&_r=1

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/15/what-we-can-say-about-the-louisiana-floods-and-climate-change/?postshare=7811471294385986&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.f1f8323cc0d3

These extremes of the past 15-20 years have me wondering if 15-20 years from now, scientists will be wondering how we missed such obvious changes in our climate. By then, the extremes of today may seem modest by comparison.

Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz,

Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia



Photo Credit: Getty Images/EyeEm
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<![CDATA[Rip Current Rescues Along Jersey Sh]]> Tue, 23 Aug 2016 06:53:28 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/rip+current+rescues.jpg More than dozen people had to pulled from the water on the Jersey Shore from Deal to Atlantic City. Brian Thompson reports.]]> <![CDATA[The Shore is the Place to Be]]> Fri, 19 Aug 2016 19:54:24 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016751018_1200x675_747507267736.jpg With Labor Day Weekend in the near future, along with the end of summer, Jersey beaches aren't clearing up at all. NBC10's Cydney Long caught up with some beach-goers to see how they were spending the final weeks of summer.]]> <![CDATA[Beautiful Late Summer Day in Philly, N.J.]]> Fri, 19 Aug 2016 07:29:19 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016742801_1200x675_747181635619.jpg Temperatures in the high 80s will accompany sunny skies and relatively low humidity on Friday heading into the weekend.]]> <![CDATA[Glenn's Blog: 'Chemtrail' Conspiracy Crushed]]> Thu, 18 Aug 2016 13:46:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Chemtrails-picture-for-Glen.jpg

"HAVE YOU HEARD WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING?"

This would be a really funny story if so many people didn’t take this stuff seriously. But they do. In fact, atmospheric scientists have gotten so many e-mails, tweets and Facebook posts that drastic measures had to be taken. Now there’s actually been a published scientific study where actual scientists have spent (*wasted*) a lot of time debunking a long-lived conspiracy theory. Of course, it’s the government’s fault (*not really*).

(I have had to resort to explaining any sarcasm clearly, so no one will mis-interpret my statements. So, I use a (*____*) to show my real opinion.

THE CHEMTRAIL CONSPIRACY THEORY

You won’t believe this one! It seems the government has been secretly releasing dangerous chemicals into the upper atmosphere for about 20 years! (*not*). Depending on who is doing the writing, these "chemtrails" (*not even a real word*) involve:

  • Population control
  • Biological warfare
  • Chemical warfare
  • Psychological manipulation
  • Weather modification (combat global warming)

I have read and heard many people say that the U.S. Government has a program to actually poison its population. And this has already affected people’s health (*you must be kidding!*). Before you think that this mindset is rare, the new study quoted by the Washington Post says: "In a 2011 international survey, nearly 17% of respondents said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric spraying program (SLAP) to be true or partly true." That’s even more than the percentage of people who believe the moon landing was fake (*another whopper*).

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Some celebrities have been quoted about their belief in "chemtrails," including Prince, Vin Diesel, Chuck Norris, Merle Haggard, and Kylie Jenner (of course, if Vin Diesel or Chuck Norris wanted to argue that to my face, with a fist raised, I may be more inclined to agree with them).

It all starts with the real thing: CONTRAILS from jet aircraft. These CONdensation TRAILS form when water vapor from the exhaust condenses into narrow clouds as the plane races across the sky. We see them regularly...

Let a real Professor of Atmospheric Sciences explain in this blog about "chemtrails" versus "contrails."

SO THEY HAD TO DO A (PUBLISHED) STUDY

Hearing from individual professors or meteorologists hasn’t managed to calm down the fears of the 17%. The new study, from scientists at Stanford and the University of California, Irvine wanted "to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse." It was published in the past week by the prestigious Environmental Research Letters.

They surveyed 220 contrail experts and 255 atmospheric deposition experts (the type of scientists who should know better), A total of 77 responded (*the rest probably thought it was some sort of prank*).

The scientists were asked if they ever came across evidence "that you think indicates the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric spraying program?." The result: 76 of the 77 simply answered "no." What about the 77th one? "...said the evidence was "high levels of atmospheric barium in a remote area with standard 'low' soil barium." Sounds ominous (*not*).

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The study went into great detail, showing multiple "suspicious" photos. The scientists explained, for example, why these trails behind aircraft appear to be lasting longer than they used to (a major point from the conspiracy believers). Planes are flying higher, have larger engines that produce more water vapor, higher water vapor content of the atmosphere due to climate change, and increased fuel efficiency.

Doesn’t that sound more reasonable than the government trying to poison us?

AND ANOTHER THING

If anyone wanted to spray stuff in the atmosphere to affect us at the ground, they wouldn’t do it at the level jets fly. Anything up there just disburses into the atmosphere. They would spray close to the ground, like crop dusters.

HOW DID THIS ALL START?

I have wondered for years how this interesting (*crazy*) theory got started. The answer is really interesting (*really*). This goes back to 1996, when the Air Force published a paper, "Weather as a Force Multiplier." It was a theoretical look about how weather could be modified for combat. You can read it here.

And then it spread…and spread…and spread. I guess they didn’t read the "this report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios" part.

AND THEN THERE’S HAARP

HAARP is a real research program, started in 1990 (and recently cancelled). "Chemtrail" people sometimes say the "chemtrails" are from the HAARP program. And get a load of some of the things HAARP has been blamed for:

  • Floods
  • Droughts
  • Hurricanes
  • Earthquakes
  • Gulf War Syndrome
  • Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

….and the downing of TWA Flight 800 (according to Wikipedia –- I can only take so much reading of the conspiracy sites).

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The scientific study of "chemtrails" did not mention HAARP. Sounds like a reason for yet another interesting (*unnecessary*) study.

In the meantime, there are so many real problems in the world. I suggest focusing on one of them, instead of spending (*wasting*) your time worrying about ridiculous conspiracy theories that pose little (*no*) logic.

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz
Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia



Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[The Heat and Your Allergies]]> Tue, 16 Aug 2016 20:08:17 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Allergies+and+the+Heat+-+17205903_20547490.jpg Those with allergies can suffer even more during heatwaves thanks to the high humidity. NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Krystal Klei talks to a local doctor.

Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[Glenn's Blog: Even the Ocean Is Hot!]]> Mon, 15 Aug 2016 17:20:22 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/jersey+shore+generic+playing+beach.jpg

RECORD SET LAST WEEK

Since the ocean warms more slowly than the land, the highest water temperatures occur, on average, in late August. Last Wednesday, the Atlantic City ocean temperature reached 83.3 degrees for a short time -- a record. The man with the data is Jim Eberwine, a meteorologist formerly with the National Weather Service. He’s kept detailed air and water temperatures for the Jersey Shore for decades.

Here is Jim’s chart for water temperatures in various parts of New Jersey and Delaware/NJ:

AND THEN THE DROP…

Last Wednesday was the first day in our most extreme heat wave of the year. By the weekend, air temperatures reached well into the 90s, and the humidity jumped to its’ highest level of the summer so far. Yet the ocean temperature plunged. It fell from that 83.3 Wednesday to 64 Sunday. I warned viewers about the coming drop Wednesday. So, why did it happen, and how did I know that it would drop so much?

It’s called "upwelling”, and it happens occasionally in summer under certain conditions. At the Jersey Shore, it involves a persistent wind from the Southwest. While that wind direction heats up inland areas, it is parallel to the shore. That causes the warm surface water to get pushed out to sea. And to replace it, colder water from below moves up to the surface. Here’s a graphic and explanation from NOAA.

I’ve seen ocean temperatures drop into the 50s in the middle of summer on some of the hottest afternoons on land. It happens every year, and there’s nothing unusual about it.

WILL THE WATER GET WARM AGAIN?

In a word: yes. A persistent wind from the East or Southeast will allow some of that warmer water to return. But it may not get back to the record 83.3 degrees, or maybe not even 80. That’s a temperature uncommon for the Jersey Shore, but a bit more common for the Delaware beaches.

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz
Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia



Photo Credit: Getty Images
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<![CDATA[Ways to Beat the Heat]]> Thu, 14 Jul 2016 11:23:32 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/dfw-generic-swimming-03.jpg We're enduring the 5th heat wave of the summer and it could also be the longest. When the temperature is on the wrong side of 90, oppressive heat can put a ding in your plans. But no worries, there are plenty of other activities to help you escape the heat.

Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[The Heat is On...and On...and On ]]> Mon, 15 Aug 2016 10:30:16 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Heat-Generic-Photo.jpg

SUMMER DIDN’T START VERY HOT, BUT….
By the 4th of July, summer 2016 hadn’t been very hot. The hottest day of the entire summer up to that point was a mere 92 degrees. And it wasn’t even humid. There wasn’t a single heat wave in June. The single heat wave in May was the absolute minimum: 3 straight days of exactly 90 degrees. And the warmest night up to July 4th got down to 72 degrees-an indication of just how NOT humid it had been.

Then came July 6th. More than half the days since then have been 90 degrees or above in Philadelphia! We’ve had four heat waves since then, and the humidity seems that it’s gotten higher in each one. The current heat wave, although the temperature hasn’t gotten above 98, has become deadly. And there’s more of the heat wave to come.

THE HEAT INDEX (OR “FEELS LIKE” TEMPERATURE)
We’ve all heard “It’s not the heat-it’s the humidity”. But that’s not true. It is clearly both. And there is a single number that measures the impact. Believe it or not, it was first developed by a TV meteorologist (George Winterling in 1978), who called it "humiture." I actually prefer that term, since it perfectly combines humidity and temperature. Pretty clever, George.

The National Weather Service picked up the good idea and called it the Heat Index. Some refer to it as the “Feels-like Temperature”, which can also be used in winter instead of the Wind Chill. Viewers sometimes ask me for the “formula” for calculating these terms. I always tell them: “You really don’t want to know”, and show the formula that proves it:
   HI = -42.379 + 2.04901523T + 10.14333127R - 0.22475541TR - 6.83783x10-3T2- 5.481717x10-2R2 + 1.22874x10-3T2R + 8.5282x10-4TR2 - 1.99x10-6T2R2

See, you really don’t want to know. Fortunately, quick calculations can be made using sites like this or you can look at a simple table once you know the temperature and relative humidity:

[[390147922, C]]

Anything in the orange area is considered the “danger zone” (about 105 or higher). That’s when we see reports of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. I’ve seen Heat Index readings as high as 122 in our area. The highest I’ve ever heard about was an amazing 172 degrees F in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

Heat can be a killer. In July 1993, 118 people died from heat-related causes in Philadelphia. That’s the highest death toll from any weather event in our recorded history. So we take extreme heat seriously.

HOW HOT DID IT GET
On Saturday, the 13th, the heat index got up to about 112 in Philadelphia. The highest reading in our area was 122 degrees in Dover, DE. But the dewpoint reading there has seemed to be too high compared to nearby sites, so that may be a bit of a stretch.

Other top Heat Index readings were:
    113 in Millville, NJ
    112 at Atlantic City Airport
    110 in Wilmington, DE
    109 in Trenton, NJ
    108 in Allentown, PA
    107 in Reading, PA

HOW MUCH MORE OF THIS IS COMING?
We’re predicting highs of 95 both Monday and Tuesday. The dewpoints and relative humidity (either can be used for the calculations) won’t be quite as high as they were Saturday, so the Heat Index will be up to about 103. The problem is that the accumulation of heat is a key factor in heat-related deaths. Those brick row houses in parts of Philadelphia act like ovens without air conditioning. Fans just blow the heat around. Some people have air conditioning, but don’t turn it on because they feel they can’t afford it. When you combine that with elderly people with existing heart problems, the threat goes up even more.

Because of the above reasons, we ask that you check on the elderly during the rest of this heat wave, especially if they don’t use air conditioning. And make sure they get a break in a cool area-and with plenty of water. Of course, don’t forget about pets-they are wearing fur coats, and don’t have the luxury of turning on the AC themselves. And, of course, never leave a child in a hot car. Temperatures climb rapidly in an enclosed car on a sunny day.

After Tuesday, temperatures should drop off a bit (closer to 90 than 95), and the humidity will drop a bit. By next weekend, we could actually have highs in the 80s.

This has not been the hottest summer on record. The official temperature still hasn’t reached 100. There’s still plenty of summer to go. So far, we’ve had 30 days reaching 90+. The average for the whole summer is only 21.


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<![CDATA[Ominous Clouds Form as Storms Move Through Region ]]> Sat, 13 Aug 2016 21:19:38 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Storm-Clouds-Over-Musikfest.jpg

Storms moved through parts of the area Saturday night. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect for Montgomery, Lehigh, Berks, Hunterdon and Northampton counties until 9 p.m. Check out these photos and videos of the storm.

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Photo Credit: Joe Lazorik
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