<![CDATA[NBC 10 Philadelphia - Philadelphia Weather News and Coverage]]>Copyright 2016http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories http://media.nbcnewyork.com/designimages/NBC10_40x125.png NBC 10 Philadelphia http://www.nbcphiladelphia.comen-usFri, 21 Oct 2016 09:05:46 -0400Fri, 21 Oct 2016 09:05:46 -0400NBC Owned Television Stations <![CDATA[Today's Forecast]]> Thu, 20 Oct 2016 17:25:25 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/185*120/Glenn_schwartz_sheena_parveen_1.jpg

Friday will still be an unseasonably warm day. Highest rain chances will be later in the evening and overnight Friday into early Saturday. Rain looks to linger to start the weekend, but clears out for Sunday, just in time for the Eagles game! And yes, this will be more like "football weather"!

Fri: Cloudy, scattered showers, mainly late. High 77

Sat: Rain lingers early, winds gusting as high as 30mph. High 58

Sun: Sun and few clouds. High 62

Mon: Mostly sunny. High 62

Tue: Mostly sunny. High 57

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<![CDATA[StormRanger10: Delivering You Accurate Weather Forecasts]]> Fri, 02 Sep 2016 16:16:52 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/stormrangerrain.jpg

NBC10’s exclusive StormRanger10 mobile radar truck is a one-of-a-kind vehicle that has a live, high-powered Doppler Radar that enables StormRanger10 to get out ahead of a storm. StormRanger10 can track storms wherever they are with a higher degree of accuracy and with more detail than ever before.

From increased visibility in the heart of a storm to the ability to alert people in real time that a tornado has touched down because it can detect actual debris on the ground, StormRanger10 is the latest addition to NBC10’s expanding weather arsenal designed to keep you and your family safe when severe weather strikes.

"This radar technology and mobile configuration is a first for any TV station or network of stations in the U.S," said Richard Stedronsky, a meteorologist and director of strategic business development and partnerships at Enterprise Electronics Corporation. "NBC-Telemundo is the first to deploy this fleet of mobile doppler radars in the nation."

"We are boosting our weather forecasting capabilities by building, from scratch, the first-of-its-kind fleet of mobile weather radars in the country because we know how important weather is to our viewers," said Valari Staab, President, NBCUniversal Owned Television Stations. "All of our stations will have access to this groundbreaking weather technology so they can deliver even more lifesaving weather information to their communities."

Glenn's Blog: Why StormRanger10 is so important »

So what makes StormRanger10 so unique in delivering you the most accurate forecast?

When severe weather approaches, NBC10 now has the ability to dispatch StormRanger10 to wherever the storm is going to strike. Using X-band, dual-polarization Doppler radar, StormRanger10 can provide our meteorologists with more detailed observations than any normal fixed radar can provide, giving them — and you — a hyperlocal look at the storm.

See StormRanger10 radar in action here »

"When you start to get over 100 miles away from the radar, the radar beam from a fixed radar is too high in the atmosphere to see lower weather phenomena,” said Stedronsky, whose company provides the new radar system in StormRanger10. "But that’s where severe weather takes place -- in the lowest parts of the atmosphere. With StormRanger, you can take your viewers to the weather and gather information that a traditional fixed radar could be missing.”

StormRanger10's radar, which has a maximum range of about 100 miles, will update about once every 60 seconds. These updates mean you'll be up-to-the-minute when tracking how and when the weather will impact you in your crucial locations such as your home and where you currently are. Our app users will receive push alerts when StormRanger10 is activated, allowing them to get a closer -- and more accurate -- look at the weather in their neighborhoods.

By driving StormRanger10 close to actual storms, NBC10 will be able to give a detailed look that TV stations never have been able to do before. Fixed radars may miss certain weather events due to terrain or blockages due to buildings in a downtown area. But StormRanger10 can fill in those gaps in coverage, and in turn provide a more complete picture of what is happening now and what those immediately in the crosshairs of a severe storm can expect.

Mobility is StormRanger10’s big advantage over fixed radar during severe thunderstorms. By positioning StormRanger10 wherever severe storms are about to strike, meteorologists will get a better idea of how the storms are forming, how severe they are and where and how fast they’re moving.

"This advanced look that you’ll get from a StormRanger means you’re giving more accurate and timely information to a viewer,” Stedronsky said.

Get accurate 10-day and hourly forecasts here »

In addition to radar, StormRanger10 has two cameras to give you an up-close look at conditions - one on the dashboard, and one pointed at a reporter riding in the vehicle.

“The information you're going to get on a local level is going to be unprecedented,” said Tom Jennings, president of Accelerated Media Technologies, which did the customization required to integrate the radar system into StormRanger10. “You’re going to get such high-resolution weather telemetry out of these trucks that you’ll know exactly what the weather’s doing in your neighborhood, not just theoretically what it’s doing across your state or county."

See how you can view StormRanger10 online »

Stedronsky says the key to it all is having full control of a mobile radar unit that can be sent to any storm, at any time.

“That’s going to be huge for protecting people and assets and saving lives,” Stedronsky said.

NBC10 is committed to bringing you the most accurate weather information possible, and StormRanger10 is just the latest investment we’re making into weather-related technologies to do just that. StormRanger10 is here to serve your community, and ensure that NBC10 First Alert Weather is your most-trusted source when severe storms strike.

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<![CDATA[Sheena Parveen Leaving Philly for NBC Washington]]> Thu, 06 Oct 2016 06:57:29 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Sheena+Parveen+2016.jpg

NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Sheena Parveen is leaving Philly but not the NBC family.

Sheena is moving to NBC10's sister station WRC-TV/NBC4 Washington.

"Our loss is WRC’s gain," said NBC10 vice president of news Anzio Williams. "Sheena has been a great advocate and supporter of our communities and her love for pets made her the perfect ambassador for our Clear the Shelters pet adoption campaign. I’m certain that DC-area viewers will benefit from her energy, enthusiasm and expertise and immediately connect with her."

Sheena joined the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team five years ago and delivered the weather for such major events as Superstorm Sandy and the Blizzard of 2016. She also delivered weather updates for CSN, the Flyers and 76ers.

"I'm excited about this new opportunity and am delighted that I will remain in the NBCUniversal family," Sheena wrote on Facebook. "However, at the same time I am sad to leave the Philadelphia area and our passionate and loyal viewers. I have enjoyed forecasting the weather here for almost 5 years, and helping to keep our viewers (you) safe."

Sheena will make the move to D.C. at the end of the year.

Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[DOWNLOAD the NBC10 App for Latest Weather]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2016 22:30:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/215*120/Follow+Storm+on+NBC10+App.JPG
View Full Story

Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[October Heat Wave Could Shatter 50 Records or More]]> Tue, 18 Oct 2016 07:40:55 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/161018-us-forcast-today-cr-0626_718d9cd6012de9aa599044e442d36ebe.nbcnews-ux-2880-1000weather-channel.jpg

Temperatures around the U.S. are expected to climb to mid-80s in the Northeast, and 90s in the South, breaking records on Tuesday, NBC News reported. Forty-four cities experienced record-breaking temperatures Monday, with Dodge City, Kansas reaching 100 degrees.

The heat wave is expected to hit the eastern part of the nation through Wednesday, with a strong cold front following.

“[Tuesday and Wednesday] should be the highest numbers,” Weather Channel meteorologist Kevin Roth said. “I would expect some 50 records or more set each day.”

Roth said that Washington D.C., Philadelphia and New York could see the unseasonably warm weather bring temperatures into the mid-80’s.

Photo Credit: The Weather Channel]]>
<![CDATA[Where's the Fall Foliage in the Philly Area? ]]> Tue, 18 Oct 2016 06:52:52 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Fall-Foliage-Philadelphia-A.jpg

When NBC10 hit a local state park Monday, people had mixed feelings about the warmer than average forecast temperatures and the lacking fall foliage.

“I think they could be a little better, have a bit more color, but we're getting there,” said Glenn Smith, as he looked through the trees around him.

“It's still pretty green, which is surprising. I'm not used to it being this green,” said Sarah Schneider, who is from the area and feels like it’s September instead of October.

While portions of the region have begun to see peak colors, the southeast portion of Pennsylvania as well as Southern New Jersey and Delaware haven't been so lucky.  In fact, in a report by foliagenetwork.com, it categorizes the fall colors for the area as moderate to low.

“It seems like a very slow start. When fall does hit, it will probably be fast and quick,” said Service Forester Heather Kerr.

According to Kerr, there are quite a few factors that determine when fall foliage peaks, and how long it lasts.

“As the seasons change, the night becomes a lot cooler, the trees start to go dormant and they understand they need to start sending all their reserves to their roots," Kerr said.

Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s for afternoon highs, and only slip to the 60s at night. Those temps don’t help with the Philadelphia areas fall foliage shortage. Plus, the area has had a drier than average year. That can lead to an earlier start to the leaves changing colors. However, the area actually had a wet start to fall, which may have delayed the start of peak foliage colors. Finally, Kerr said the type of tree plays a big role in when the change occurs, and how impressive it is.

“Different species have different chemicals in the leaves. Maples will have different chemicals than an oak. So they're going to produce different colors, different vibrancy and they'll start changing at different times,” said Kerr.

Here's the good news! Those colors are projected to fill out at least a bit more beginning this weekend through Halloween, and may lead to about 15 to 20 percent of trees in full color. Regardless, the Service Forestry suggests heading to higher elevations where temperatures have dropped lower for the best fall foliage sightings.

Photo Credit: garneldmejilla/Instagram]]>
<![CDATA[Pacific Northwest Escapes Worst of Storm’s Fury]]> Sun, 16 Oct 2016 08:35:38 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/220*120/AP16288688963856_opt.jpg

A powerful storm fueled by the remnants of a typhoon swept through the Pacific Northwest Saturday, toppling dozens of trees in the Portland area and knocking out power, but the winds were less fierce than feared in Seattle.

Forecasters had warned of a possible historic storm along the coast. Gusts of a 77 mph were recorded near Garibaldi, Oregon — but in the Portland metro area gusts of 53 mph were recorded at the city's airport, and in the Seattle area wind gusts were around 40 mph, the National Weather Service said.

The storm was still powerful enough to cause damage. Two tornadoes touched down in coastal Oregon Friday, including one that tore through a neighborhood in the town of Manzanita, damaging around 30 homes, officials said.

Photo Credit: AP]]>
<![CDATA[1st Frost for Parts of Philly Region]]> Fri, 14 Oct 2016 13:31:39 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Frost-Generic.jpg

A frosty start to the weekend as parts of the greater Philadelphia region possibly deal with the first frost of the season Saturday.

After a chilly start to Friday as a cold front pushed eastward off the east coast a great day could be expected with mild winds, plenty of sunshine and comfortable temps (mid-60s). But get ready for another chilly night and chilly morning Saturday.

We do have all the ingredients needed for frost, and if you recall NBC10 First Alert Weather Team made note of this likely frost Thursday. Here's why we called for that frost: calm winds, a clear sky and a few other technical factors. Anyhow long story short, we have a Frost Advisory starting at 1 a.m. until 9 a.m. Saturday for parts of Bucks, Chester, Montgomery, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton counties in Pennsylvania and Atlantic, Burlington, Cumberland and Ocean counties in New Jersey. The frost will be the first for neighborhoods outside of the Lehigh Valley.

Friday brings us lots of sunshine and that's the trend through the weekend. Building clouds late Sunday and possible scattered shower Monday THEN things get very INTERESTING and here's why:

Looks like we'll hit upper 70s on Tuesday possible lower 80s on Wednesday with a southerly push of air.

Two long range models (including Canadian and Euro) show a developing system in The Atlantic later next week. The GFS shows a low developing offshore, but generally speaking the GFS doesn't do a great job picking these systems up. I'll post a technical forecast, so keep an eye out for that.

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<![CDATA[Fog and Isolated Showers Thursday]]> Wed, 12 Oct 2016 17:34:28 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/194*120/PhillyRainumbrella.JPG

So we’ve mentioned increasing clouds and the likelihood of passing showers tomorrow. While we’re currently under the influence of a high pressure system, a weak cold front passes tomorrow. Keep in mind they’re not widespread, but it does look like Philly Metro could get an isolated shower. I’ve included two models below (long and short range) for a more colorful explanation of the passing showers. 

Notice in the long range model (GFS) the front stay mainly north but in the short range model (NAM) it dips a bit lower and brings the scattered showers farther south. 

[[396853971, C,512,384]]

[[396854361, C,512,384]]

[[396854761, C,512,384]]

[[396854891, C,512,384]]

[[396855001, C,512,384]]

[[396855271, C,512,384]]

As for tonight, you'll see a few clouds develop as we get a bit of an onshore push, but we'll stay dry. By tonight we'll see some fog developing and it really does look like most of us will have to deal with the fog, but it will be more dense along the shoreline and just WNW of Philly. Below you’ll see three graphs of the expected fog time frames… 

[[396855431, C,640,552]]

[[396855491, C,640,552]]

[[396855581, C,640,552]] 

Photo Credit: cheesesteakbluetelescope/Instagram
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<![CDATA[Hurricane Matthew and Climate Change]]> Tue, 11 Oct 2016 16:25:35 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/GettyImages-613195388_opt.jpg

No, It's Not Too Soon

Some people who are yet to be convinced of a warming climate have another thing in common: After every natural disaster, they’ll either say: “There is no evidence that _______ was influenced by climate change," or many who describe themselves as “Luke warmers” often say: "It’s too early to tell if climate change had any impact on ______”. 

Well, at some point we have to acknowledge that it is NOT too soon to talk about this stuff. And it is not too soon to show concern how climate change may be already helping to make “natural” disasters more disastrous. Matthew is likely one of those examples, and we don’t have to wait months or years before research gives us more quantitative evidence. Those who say it’s “too soon” now are not likely to believe later studies anyway. So, why not talk about it while the storm is still fresh in our minds? 

However, as a TV meteorologist, I feel it was too soon to discuss the climate change link during the storm. The priority for us should always be the current situation and dangers in the coming days. There may be some stations or networks that have the extra time to talk about such a complex subject. But most of us sure don’t. We’re already trying to squeeze ten minutes of information into a three minute weathercast. Any talk about the climate change connection means that we have to skip other, more immediate concerns. It’s a different story after the storm, though.[[395816011, C]]

But Don't Go Too Far: Climate Change Didn't Do It All 

With a subject as politically sensitive as climate change, we need to be careful about how far we go with the headlines. For example, an article from grist.org under the sub-heading “October hurricanes aren’t supposed to be this scary” was reprinted on slate.com. Their title was: “Climate Change Likely Made Hurricane Matthew Worse”. The word “likely” made it a responsible and accurate headline according to the prevailing science of climate change. But the Facebook and Twitter headlines for the same article were: “Yes, Climate Change is Likely to Blame for Deadly Hurricane Matthew.” That headline was neither responsible nor accurate. Again, this was the same article from the same media organization! 

Does this really matter? Yes it does. Why do you think 97% of the climate scientists who publish most agree on the climate change consensus, yet a much lower percentage of the general public does? Part of the reason is that “the other side” uses exaggerations and extreme forecasts that don’t pan out as ammunition. Every wild exaggeration and wild, unsubstantiated forecast hurts the credibility for all. No, the Arctic isn’t going to be ice-free in 5 years, Miami is not going to be under water in 10 years, and the record hurricane activity of 2004 and 2005 is not going to be considered “normal” any time soon. I grimace every time I see one of those headlines. Many people mean well, but end up hurting the understanding and acceptance of climate science. 

Climate change isn’t to blame for the existence of Matthew. In case you haven’t heard, there have been hurricanes for hundreds, if not thousands, if not millions of years. And climate change didn’t make Matthew deadly. It could have formed and tracked over the same areas and caused deaths, even if it had occurred in 1816 instead of 2016. But is surely could have made Matthew stronger and deadlier. 

So, Slate, please watch your headlines. The article itself was mostly reasonable, as you’ll see.

"Nature on Steroids:" Extra Fuel For Matthew 

This isn’t rocket science. An open-minded 5th grader can understand that if:

A. Hurricanes are fueled by warm oceans


B. Warmer oceans help make hurricanes stronger.

Who is going to argue with that? No reasonable person can. 

Also: if…

A. More rain falls when nearby oceans are warmer


B. Warmer oceans help lead to more rain from hurricanes 

Here is the evidence that these changes are already happening. It’s not just a theory about the future:

Average Global Sea Surface Temperature, 1880–2015

[[396696071, C,696,435]]

Extreme One-Day Precipitation Events in the Contiguous 48 States, 1910–2015

[[396696121, C,696,435]]

Yes, ocean temperatures have been going up for decades. And there are more times when extreme rain falls.

There’s a specific way to measure the amount of moisture in the air ahead of a storm. It’s called “precipitable water”. And yes, records were set for the highest amount ever recorded in Jacksonville, FL and Charleston, SC. We’ve seen similar records ahead of numerous floods in recent years. (Records have even been set in winter ahead of big snowstorms.)

[[396696201, C,667,500]]

So, is it a coincidence that parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina set all-time records for storm surge heights, rainfall, and river levels? Remember, Matthew was only a Category 1 hurricane when it finally made landfall in South Carolina. It didn’t stall. It simply dumped more rain than any other tropical or non-tropical system on record. 

How was Matthew affected by climate change? Here are the “not yet proved” assumptions:

1. Strengthened 80 mph in just 24 hours-3rd fastest on record in Atlantic (behind only Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007)

2. Stayed Category 4 or 5 for 102 hours-longest stretch in Atlantic in October (ocean not as warm in October, so these storms can stay strong later in the season)

3. Extra warm ocean strengthened it and kept it strong longer

4. Stronger storm for longer time led to record high storm surges

5. Extra precipitable water led to record rainfall, which then led to record flooding

None of the above would have been as likely if greenhouse gases hadn’t increased so much in past decades. 

Here’s a great article with an amazing cartoon video explaining the “weather on steroids” concept-from one of the top weather research centers in the world.

Photo Credit: Getty Images
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<![CDATA[Philly First Responders Head South for Matthew Relief Efforts]]> Fri, 07 Oct 2016 12:19:12 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/175*120/GettyImages-613160100.jpg Although Hurricane Matthew has downgraded to a Category 3, the threat it poses is still very dangerous. NBC10’s Pamela Osborne is in the Digital Operations Center to tell us how first responders from our neighborhoods plan to help.

Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[Airlines Cancel Flights in Path of Hurricane Matthew]]> Fri, 07 Oct 2016 09:19:14 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/180*120/hurricaneMM.jpg Airports in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando shut down operations due to Hurricane Matthew. The impact has been felt at Philadelphia International Airport.

Photo Credit: NOAA]]>
<![CDATA[NBC10 in Florida For Matthew Preparations]]> Wed, 05 Oct 2016 20:31:56 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017384164_1200x675_780116035820.jpg Thousands of people in Florida are rushing to prepare as Matthew gets closer. NBC10’s Randy Gyllenhaal is in Florida reporting on storm preparations in Miami.]]> <![CDATA[Drying Out Later Sunday as Matthew Continues to Move Out]]> Sun, 09 Oct 2016 14:52:45 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/218*120/weather+grab+matthew+moving+out.JPG

What's the latest on Hurricane Matthew, the storm's track and the damage left behind? The NBC10 First Alert Weather Team keeps you updated. (Last updated: 12:30 p.m. Sunday)

12:30 p.m. Update

Hurricane Matthew continues to move northeast on its way out of our area. NBC10 First Alert meteorologist Krystal Klei predicts that the system will be completely gone by late afternoon, taking with it most of the rain and leaving some time for a clear evening -- maybe even with some peeks of sun in spots.

Flood warnings and advisories issued for coastal New Jersey and Delaware expire Sunday afternoon. A wind advisory will remain in effect until 6 p.m. with gusts to around 45 mph for several counties and areas in New Jersey and Delaware, including Kent, Sussex, Delaware's beaches, Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May and the Jersey Shore. Winds are expected to be sustained at 20 mph to 30 mph and last through the day.

Areas west already saw rain clearing Sunday morning. The clearing trend is expected to continue across the area from west to east, with only a few spotty isolated showers lingering.

8:45 a.m. Update

[[396446291, C]]

Hurricane Matthew weakened to a post-tropical cyclone, and the storm has been downgraded, but First Alert meteorologist Krystal Klei warns: The storm still packs 75 mph winds in some places.

Matthew continued to move east-northeast at 14 mph along the coast Sunday morning, bringing bands of rain from North Carolina all the way north to our region, where the region awoke on Sunday to rain showers.

Flooding near Milton in Sussex County, Delaware as a result of the rain was reported Sunday morning, and a flood warning was in effect for parts of Sussex and Kent counties through 12:45 p.m. A flood advisory has been issued for the Shore -- including Cape May County, southeastern Atlantic County and southeastern Cumberland County -- until 11:45 a.m. Heavy rain in the area, where up to two inches of rain already fell, is expected to cause "minor flooding," according to the National Weather Service.

The center of the storm as of early Sunday was located about 30 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina. The storm is continuing to track northeast, and the latest models predict that it will continue to move northeast, heading out to sea. It does not appear that Matthew will loop around and hit Florida again as earlier models had predicted.

A cold front passing through our area from the west will help to shove Matthew out throughout the day, likely moving the rain away from the region as the day goes on.

[[396446411, C]]

[[396433791, C]]

9 p.m. Update

A Wind Advisory will be in effect starting Sunday at 8 a.m. until 6 p.m. (See area shaded in light brown.

[[396426781, C]]

Wind gusts could reach 45 mph. This would be due to a combination of the warmer, moist tropical air being displaced by a massive cold front sweeping in. See the simple but cool image below to get an idea of why the winds kick up so much, especially when there is such a difference in the type of air mass. We're in for plenty of wind Sunday.

[[396426801, C]]

8 p.m. Update

We’re getting a very small taste of the outflow from Matthew as rain bands and thick clouds move northward. We forecast the approach of the southerly flow around 1 p.m. and that was just about the time the rain made it to Center City.

I’ve been explaining for the past few days that this rain was a combination of Matthew rain and clouds (before he heads offshore) and then the cold front. Please see the images below for an idea of the rain direction and surface setup.

[[396423741, C]]

[[396423871, C]]

[[396423921, C]]

We’ve been seeing developing fog and as of right now we have a flash Flood Watch in effect until midnight for Kent County, I do also like to include Sussex, simply because of the direction of the moisture –in this case. Otherwise I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a fog advisory soon.

We're watching an increase in winds overnight as the cold front FINALLY makes it. Keep in mind we lucked out, because the cold front kept Matthew from moving farther northward, but my thoughts go out to those who have seen great devastation with the hurricane and tropical storm force winds as well as the heavy rain that has flooded so many areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and now North Carolina.

Below please see Matthew’s path as it continues to weaken and finally make it out to sea.

[[396423941, C]]

12:30 p.m. Update

[[396398821, C]]

Matthew made landfall and was officially announced during an 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Matthew was a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, with 75 mph winds (so a weak cat 1). It hit southeast of McClellanville, SC. It had downgraded to a Category 1 during 9 a.m. hour, and was riding the coastline very closely ahead of landfall. It continues to move northeast at 12 miles per hour. This will continue to cause major coastal flooding due to storm surge, as well as heavy rain bands and strong winds.


Saturday morning saw the direct impacts of Hurricane Matthew along the Georgia and South Carolina coast. Beginning with Savannah and stretching to Charleston, Matthew’s eyewall lashed the coastline. The eye of the storm hung just 10 to 20 miles off coast at times throughout Saturday morning. At 8 a.m. the hurricane also was downgraded to a Category 1 with winds registering at 85 mph. Through the earlier hours of the morning, the storm was a Category 2 with winds at 105 mph. The strongest and most dangerous part of the storm-the eyewall- brought heavy rain, strong winds, and massive storm surge to the area, especially during high tide early in the morning hours. With the landfall of the eyewall coinciding with the early high tide, devastating coastal flooding is likely to be visible with sun up.

It didn’t matter that it was “only” a Category 2 hurricane that hit the area early Saturday. The ocean has been churned up for days by a Category 4 hurricane. Those giant waves don’t just flatten when the center of the storm weakens a bit. We saw that with Sandy, which had supposedly weakened ahead of landfall. But the giant Category 3 hurricane had been building the waves for days ahead of landfall. Don’t let that last intensity number fool you!

Category 2 Matthew brought reports of gusts above 90mph to areas near Tybee Island and other South Carolina shore points. The massive system has also dumped upwards of 15” of rain along portions of South Carolina’s coast. The NWS Charleston reported that a tide gauge at Fort Pulaski peaked at 12.56 feet, which set a new record, surpassing Hurricane David’s previous record. Even as the hurricane downgraded to a category 1 at 8am, the storm is still considered very dangerous for the SC and NC coasts through Saturday morning and afternoon.


The chance of Matthew tracking all the way up the coast toward us is close to zero. The cold front that will pass through Saturday (bringing showers to our area) will cause Matthew to turn to the right. Then, the HIGH pressure that builds over our area behind the front will help force Matthew more to the south. The latest “Spaghetti Models” show many solutions that have Matthew continuing to turn right until it makes almost a full circle-perhaps hitting the Bahamas again!

[[396398831, C]]

That’s a very unusual track, but such “loops” have happened before. But even if that does happen, Matthew is not likely to be a major hurricane. Still, getting hit twice by the same storm would be a bit too much.

[[287977901, C]]

Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[Heavy Downpours Bring Flood Threat]]> Fri, 30 Sep 2016 14:50:56 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/flood-generic-file.jpg

UPDATE: By mid-afternoon Friday, the National Weather Service had canceled most of its flood advisories in the region.

Flooding threatened a large part of the Philadelphia region Friday as rain, possibly heavy at times, and wind continued to pound the area Friday.


"The heaviest rain occurred overnight but we still could get heavy downpours during the day today," said NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Bill Henley. "And, with those heavy downpours – because we've already had tremendous rain in the area – there could be some flash flooding. It's not going to be widespread but something to be looking out for."

A Flash Wood Watch remained in effect through Friday afternoon for most of Delaware, parts of South Jersey and Delaware County, Pennsylvania. An earlier Flash Flood Watch for Philadelphia expired. The National Weather Service also issued a Flood Warning for Sussex County, Delaware until 3 p.m. [[395382921, C]]

"Heavy rainfall will continue to affect the area through today," said the NWS. "Widespread 3 to 6 inches has fallen across portions of the Delmarva and southern New Jersey over the last two days, with higher amounts of 10-12 inches across far southern Delaware. Additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall today will lead to more flooding and exacerbate existing flooding."

The NWS also warned of potential coastal flooding as rain and wind hit the coastlines.

"The heaviest rain occurred overnight but we still could get heavy downpours during the day today," said NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Bill Henley. "And, with those heavy downpours – because we've already had tremendous rain in the area – there could be some flash flooding. It's not going to be widespread but something to be looking out for."

Temps on Friday will only get into the 60s with wind and rain making it feel chilly. The rain will continue into the weekend with more of it expected Saturday.

"We will see some rain this weekend but it's not going to be the heavy rain we've seen (Friday)," said Bill.

After a dreary Saturday, Bill said more rain is possible Sunday but so is sunshine in the afternoon. [[287977901, C]]

Photo Credit: File - Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[StormForce10 Tracks Rainy Commute in Delaware]]> Thu, 29 Sep 2016 10:23:53 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017294916_1200x675_775614531682.jpg Road conditions were impacted Thursday morning by the heavy rain in New Castle County, Delaware. NBC10's Matt DeLucia reports on the road in StormForce10.]]> <![CDATA[Hurricane's Blog: Heavy Rain (& Matthew Forms)]]> Thu, 29 Sep 2016 11:13:25 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Generic+Rain+Generic+Umbrella+Generic+Rainy.jpg

UPDATE: The NBC10 Weather Team issued a First Alert for the Jersey Shore and Delaware after heavy rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

First Alert for Heavy Rain

Let’s start with the final product. Here’s the latest rainfall total predicted by the National Weather Service, based on averaging several different computer models:

[[395145401, C, 499,456]]

While this map will obviously not end up being perfect, it does reflect our current thinking. Overall, the heaviest rain with this whole system should be well west of our area-in parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia. The rain totals in our area should be highest in all of Delaware and Chester and Berks counties in Pennsylvania. That is why we’ve issued a FIRST ALERT for those areas. The FIRST ALERT may have to be expanded eastward later.

That’s a LOT of rain. But most of our area has been very dry lately. The rivers and creeks are unusually low for this time of year. And this “event” is going to last for multiple days, and is not expected to be concentrated over just a few hours. That would be much more of a flash flood threat.

Other Areas to Watch

Even though our weather has been quite dry overall, some areas have been wetter than others. A certain amount of rain over a 6 hour period could cause flash flooding. Here’s the map that shows the most vulnerable areas:

[[395145561, C, 467,530]]

So, parts of Chester and upper Montgomery counties in Pennsylvania, and parts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware could flood with about 3 inches of rain in a six-hour period (in some spots, only 2 inches could cause flooding). Since some thunderstorms are going to be hitting during this event, it is possible that one of those vulnerable spots could get a heavy burst of rain.

A Rough Morning Rush Thursday?

Some computer models are suggesting the heaviest burst of rain occurs during the Thursday a.m. rush. Look at the map from the Canadian model, valid 11 a.m. Thursday. The yellow and orange colors show the heaviest rain in the period 8 to 11 a.m.

[[395146231, C, 512,387]]

The Setup

The above map shows LOW pressure to our west and a giant area of HIGH pressure just north of Maine. That combination means a persistent and rather strong wind off the ocean. This will keep feeding in Atlantic moisture, and also keeping temperatures down. It’ll be hard to get out of the 60s for days.

At upper levels of the atmosphere, the picture looks extreme:

[[395147331, C, 512,348]]
There is an unusually intense upper-air LOW centered in Kentucky. The blue colors show just how extreme it is (WAAAY below normal pressures). But take a look in Canada. Those reddish colors indicate pressures WAAAY above normal. This type of combination of extreme reds and blues have been found ahead of dangerous weather setups.

Once again, as of now, it looks like that most dangerous weather will occur west of our area, but it will need to be watched closely.

Tropical Storm Matthew Forms

September is the historical peak of hurricane season, and now the latest storm has developed-Matthew. It’s a pretty large storm, and was quickly evaluated as a storm with winds of 60 mph. It’s moving quickly westward, but is expected to take turn to the north late in the weekend.

[[395147951, C, 448, 358]]

Matthew is expected to become a hurricane by the weekend, and many computer models take it to major hurricane status (111-plus mph – Category 3 and above).

Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[What Turned the Schuylkill River Green? ]]> Thu, 22 Sep 2016 06:23:02 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Green-Schuylkill-River.jpg

Eagles fans aren’t the only ones bleeding green in Philadelphia. SkyForce10 captured a green blanket covering part of the Schuylkill River Wednesday. The peculiar shade had some wondering what was in the water.

It turns out that duckweed, a plant that grows in slow flowing areas of the river, was the cause. Recent rain in the area caused the plant to break up and flow downstream. The plant was spotted in the Schuylkill River last month as well.

Duckweed is harmless and is actually a source of food for many animals along the Schuylkill. The Philadelphia Water Department said the green color will disappear from the river once temperatures cool down in our area.

Photo Credit: NBC10.com]]>
<![CDATA[Flood Warning Along Philly Creek, Advisories in South Jersey]]> Mon, 19 Sep 2016 13:22:37 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/212*120/Philly+Heavy+Rain+Radar.JPG

The first significant rain in weeks brought a Flood Warning to Philadelphia and flood advisories to surrounding areas Monday morning.

The National Weather Service issued the warning for parts of Philadelphia, especially the area near the Frankford Creek Monday morning.

"Rainfall totals in excess of one inch will cause minor flooding along the Frankford Creek in Philadelphia," said the weather service.

Up to an inch or more of rain could fall as thunderstorms and heavy rainfall hits, said the weather service.

The National Weather Service also issued flood advisories for poor drainage and flood-prone areas in Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester and Ocean counties.

Shortly after noon, with most of the heavy rainfall out of the area, but with more rain coming, the flood advisories extended to Kent and New Castle counties in Delaware as well as Salem, New Jersey.

Expect highs to remain in the 70s as rain remains into the afternoon, said the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team.

Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[No Rain: It's a Drought for Philly, South Jersey]]> Fri, 16 Sep 2016 13:11:28 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Sun+Generic.jpg

Above average temperatures and a dry spell have led us to a drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor recently updated their drought level analysis, categorizing the Philadelphia area and much of New Jersey under the moderate drought level. That is the first level of drought (D1), categorized from D0 (abnormally dry) to D4 (exceptional drought).

Philadelphia has not seen measurable rain at the airport since Sept. 1, and before that, Aug. 21. The forecast calls for a primarily dry week ahead outside of some possible showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

The counties under moderate drought include part of Philadelphia County, as well as lower Montgomery and Lower Bucks counties. Also included are parts of Gloucester, Atlantic and Mercer counties as well as all of Camden, Burlington and Ocean counties.

This year, most areas have seen less than average rainfall. In fact, Trenton, New Jersey's annual precipitation is 7.66 inches below average. Philadelphia is 4.5 inches below. And, Allentown is 5.19 inches below. Reading currently has a 6.17 inches annual precipitation deficit. And, Mount Pocono comes in just over 3.5 inches below. Delaware has fared slightly better, with Wilmington only 1.24 inches below average. Atlantic City has seen just enough rain to put the official reporting station at 2.91 inches above average for annual precipitation.

At this point, one strong and steady storm could help alleviate the deficits.

Only a year ago, Philadelphia saw around 10 inches more rain than in 2016. As a result, some people may start to notice lawns and plants suffering compared to 2015.

Louis Holod, Owner of Holod’s True Value Hardware, said it’s not time to panic, yet.

"Most of the grass here is blue grass, and it goes dormant above 90 degrees," Holod said. "Sixty to 90 percent of it will come back automatically. Then you can do your repairs, and spend a lot less money."

If you’re particularly concerned about your lawn, Holod said you can water the area.

"If it’s small enough, water now. If it’s larger, then I’d hold off until we get just one good rain and you can overseed it, but probably the most bang for your dollar would be lime."

Holod also suggests that if you do water your lawn, do so before 10 a.m. because watering at night can lead to fungus problems. He also said not to aerate your lawn until we’ve seen rain, as the soil may be too dry for aeration to currently work.

<![CDATA[First Alert Weather: Abnormally Dry]]> Thu, 15 Sep 2016 07:59:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017095215_1200x675_765723715728.jpg NBC10 meteorologist Bill Henley explains the abnormally dry conditions in our area.]]> <![CDATA[Hurricane's Blog: The Case Study for StormRanger10]]> Wed, 14 Sep 2016 15:44:53 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/206*120/StormRanger10.JPG

Why Have a 'Radar on Wheels?'

Radars just aren’t close enough together in the existing fixed radar network. The map below shows all the National Weather Service radars across the country:

[[393432591, C, 825,638]]

The dots are small, but basically our area is "covered" by radars in Ft. Dix, New Jersey; Dover, Delaware; and State College, Pennsylvania. As I explained in a blog when StormRanger10 debuted, they are simply not close enough for equally good coverage across our area.

The biggest radar "gap" in our area is clearly in Chester and Berks Counties. Places outside the yellow area on the map below have the worst coverage of fixed radars. I would call areas in yellow "marginal" for tornadoes, precise rain/snow lines, and small showers. The areas in green are covered the "best."

[[393432391, C, 506,531]]

If we want to get the best look at storms, especially in the areas with the poorest coverage up to now, we need to move the radar to the storms. That is what StormRanger10 does.

Amazing Results From Small Storms

 On Friday, Sept. 9, the radar showed very little on it anywhere in our area. The conventional, fixed radars showed NOTHING in Bucks County and Mercer County. We had sent StormRanger10 to Quakertown, which happens to be southeast of Allentown-in the yellow area on the local coverage map. If any storms were going to develop, we expected them to form (or move to) within 30 miles of our selected site.

Around 5:30pm, StormRanger10 suddenly saw a small but intense shower develop right near Easton, Pennsylvania -- yet, the fixed radar system still showed just light showers at the very same time!

This wasn’t even happening in the main "gap" area, yet the difference was striking (and frankly, surprising). As the showers tracked southeast through Bucks County, we saw our most striking result yet. At 6:15, StormRanger10 showed an intense shower in Trenton, New Jersey, while the fixed radar didn’t show a drop of rain in all of Bucks or Mercer counties. So how could the fixed radars miss that heavy shower?

[[393442151, C, 826, 704]] [[393442461, C, 1104,702]]

The answer had to be that, by the time the Ft. Dix or State College radar beams got to the shower, the beam was too wide. The radar beam is very narrow at first, but the farther it gets from the radar, the wider it gets, and therefore can’t detect as much detail. In this case, they missed some very heavy rain.

Meanwhile, StormRanger10 kept tracking the shower, which was still dumping heavy rain on a small area. And this all happened during our newscasts, so I was able to show the difference on TV-live.

Test Results Even Better Than Expected

As I stated earlier, it was surprising to capture a heavy shower without the fixed radars showing anything-in an area not even in the main radar "gap." We clearly expect future radar beams from the fixed radars to show:

  1. What looks like precipitation, but it’s really just moisture in mid-level clouds and is not reaching the ground (beam gets too high)
  2. The higher parts of rain and snow clouds-missing intensity near the ground
  3. Small and weak radar returns in some places where it is actually raining heavily (beam gets too wide)

We’re excited to see what we find with future thunderstorms, floods, and winter storms. Remember, this is all new. StormRanger10 is the first of its’ kind for TV. And you’ll be able to see the discoveries right along with us by watching NBC10 and/or our APP. [[287977901, C]]

Photo Credit: NBC10
This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.]]>
<![CDATA[No Rain: Dry Days Inch Philly Region Closer to Drought]]> Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:52:49 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/drought-generic-brown-grass.jpg

Above average temperatures and a dry spell have made the last few weeks of summer feel more like the middle of summer.

Philadelphia has not seen measurable rain at the airport since Sept. 1, and before that, August 21. The forecast Tuesday calls for a primarily dry week ahead as well.

The U.S. Drought Monitor recently categorized the Philadelphia area, the Lehigh Valley and most of New Jersey as abnormally dry. That category is only one level below moderate drought.

This year, most areas have seen less than average rainfall. In fact, Trenton, New Jersey's annual precipitation is 7.06 inches below average. Philadelphia is 3.99 inches below. And, Allentown is 4.61 inches below. Reading currently has a 5.59 inches annual precipitation deficit. And, Mount Pocono comes in just under 3 inches below. Delaware has fared slightly better, with Wilmington only 0.64 inches below average. Atlantic City has seen just enough rain to put the official reporting station at 3.32 inches above average for annual precipitation.

At this point, one strong and steady storm could help alleviate the deficits.

Only a year ago, Philadelphia saw nearly 10 inches more rain than in 2016. As a result, some people may start to notice lawns and plants suffering compared to 2015.

Louis Holod, Owner of Holod’s True Value Hardware, said it’s not time to panic, yet.

"Most of the grass here is blue grass, and it goes dormant above 90 degrees," Holod said. "Sixty to 90 percent of it will come back automatically. Then you can do your repairs, and spend a lot less money."

If you’re particularly concerned about your lawn, Holod said you can water the area.

"If it’s small enough, water now. If it’s larger, then I’d hold off until we get just one good rain and you can overseed it, but probably the most bang for your dollar would be lime."

Holod also suggests that if you do water your lawn, do so before 10 a.m. because watering at night can lead to fungus problems. He also said not to aerate your lawn until we’ve seen rain, as the soil may be too dry for aeration to currently work. [[287977901, C]]

Photo Credit: NBC]]>
<![CDATA[Polar Bears Trap Meteorologists in Russia]]> Tue, 13 Sep 2016 11:45:20 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/GettyImages-82275695.jpg

Polar bears may not look frightening from far away, but for five Russian meteorologists, they have become quite terrifying. 

For almost two weeks, five meteorologists stationed on one of the Izvestiy TSIK islands, located 2,800 miles from the country’s capital, have been stranded inside their weather station due to the presence of the bears. 

Polar bears are normal in the area, though their population has more than doubled in 2016, NBC News reported. 

The meteorologists themselves aren’t in danger, but some of their work has been halted because it's been too dangerous to leave the station. 

The weather bureau in Arkhangelsk has said it will send a ship with supplies such as flares and small explosives to the station in an attempt to scare the polar bears off. 

The bears are an endangered species. In Russia, shooting polar bears is a crime, unless done in self-defense.

Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[High Heat, Below Average Rain]]> Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:02:49 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017057848_1200x675_763346499907.jpg Are we in a drought? NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Krystal Klei explains just how far below average the rain amounts are in our area and how you can keep your plants alive.]]> <![CDATA[Glenn's Blog: Weather Ridiculousness Like 'Rain Bombs']]> Mon, 12 Sep 2016 13:18:14 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/160*120/Old+Farmers+Almanac.jpg

United Airlines-Taking Science Back to Dark Ages
(I’m not making this stuff up. I wouldn’t even joke about something this absurd)

The CEO of United Airlines, Oscar Munoz, was quoted last week:

"…we should definitely be prepped. A very quick example: Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a very nasty winter, particularly in Chicago-one of our main hubs. So as we speak, our operating team is hard at work as to how are we going to accommodate passengers."

(He apparently wasn’t joking either)

United Airlines is the 3rd biggest airline in the world, with $37.5 billion annual revenue. They also have a state-of-the-art Weather Forecasting Center in Chicago. They employ actual meteorologists with actual science degrees.

Obviously, Mr. Munoz didn’t ask his own meteorologists what they thought of the Farmer’s Almanac (or Old Farmer’s Almanac-they are separate publications). If he had, they would have either:
A.    Laughed
B.    Looked at him like he was crazy

Yet he is actually planning to make decisions that will financially impact the company based on a publication with one of the worst reputations for accuracy in the meteorological world.

How do I know they are so bad? I did an extensive research project while at Penn State, and verified decades of forecasts for multiple cities. The results: the forecasts were statistically significantly WORSE than even predicting average. That’s right-you can flip a coin and do better than what you read from these entertaining, yet lacking-forecast-accuracy publications.

90-Day Forecast: For 'Suckers' Only

Weather forecasting has improved steadily in recent decades, mainly due to better computer models. But nearly all meteorologists agree that predicting daily weather beyond two weeks just isn’t possible.

Some people even questioned us when NBC10 became the first station in our area to do a 7-day forecast more than a dozen years ago. But before debuting it, we experimented for a full year behind the scenes to prove that we could do it with some degree of accuracy. We even showed some "skill" (a technical term) out to 10 days. Further research has allowed us to debut our "10 Days on 10" forecast in recent months.

As if their widely ridiculed 45-day forecast wasn’t enough, the private weather company AccuWeather introduced their 90-day forecast in April of this year. Yes, they actually make a prediction for every day for the next three months. This includes specific temperatures, and even exact amounts of rain or snow. Pretty impressive, isn’t it? Except for the fact that there’s NO SCIENCE that allows that sort of precision forecasting that far out.  I’m not the only one saying such things. Here are some others commenting on the 45-day forecast from previous news articles:

Dr. Cliff Mass, Professor of Meteorology: "There’s a whole literature on it…..There’s no doubt about it: there’s no forecast skill past two weeks of daily weather."

Alison Bridger, San Jose State Dept. of Meteorology: "It’s inconceivable that they could know it’s going to be rainy in New York on May 9…”

Others are even stronger in their disapproval:

Dr. Steve Tracton: "..hyper-extended forecasts (undermine) the credibility of the science of meteorology. There cannot be skill at those ranges-it goes back to chaos theory."

Jason Samenow -- Capital Weather Gang Chief Meteorologist: "AccuWeather calls its new 45-day weather forecast launched Monday 'revolutionary.' I call it a joke. In reality, it is simply peddling a useless product to people who don’t know better."

AccuWeather describes its’ new 90-day forecast as "a valuable tool for planning further in advance, including the best time of the season for road trips, vacations, and outdoor activities. People should not use long-range forecasts as a strict guide, but rather look at how the weather patterns evolve."

I occasionally get requests from viewers for a forecast months in advance-usually for a big event like an outdoor wedding or graduation. I always tell them that there’s no way to make such a prediction more than a couple of weeks in advance. Even questions about which weekend would be best for a vacation cannot be answered far ahead (at least with any level of accuracy).
Many of these people are desperate -- they need an answer -- ANY ANSWER. Those are the people who go to the Old Farmer’s Almanac or a bogus 90-day forecast.

In the words of Prof. Nolan Doesken from Colorado State: "From a customer perspective, there is a demand for this service whether it’s accurate or not."

As the old saying goes: "There’s sucker born every minute."

'Rain Bombs': The Latest Ridiculous Name

"Bombogenesis" is a pretty funny sounding name. But it’s a real name that describes a real, quantifiable process. If a storm’s pressure lowers enough in 24 hours, meteorologists say it has undergone "Bombogenesis." But what in the world is a "rain bomb?"

This is the picture that started it all (courtesy Bruce Haffner @chopperguyhd):

OK, so it may look a little like an atomic bomb explosion – but it isn’t! Here’s what the real thing looks like:

What some people are calling a "rain bomb" is actually a "wet microburst." You can look it up. It happens-not often, but it happens, especially in places like Arizona, where this one hit July 18.

But this is the era of:
1.    Having to come up with new, spectacular names for everything, and
2.    Blaming everything on climate change

Now, if you’ve read a few of my blogs, you know that I agree with the consensus on climate change. But the overall, accurate, worrisome forecasts for the future are made less credible by those looking to blame every kind of weather (severe or not) on climate change. This is what is known as "a stretch." And the biggest culprit in this case is Bloomberg.com, which often has accurate and responsible stories on the subject. How did this get by the editors?

Photo Credit: AP
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<![CDATA[Cheerleaders, Fans Overcome by Heat at Football Game]]> Sat, 10 Sep 2016 23:58:39 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Extreme_Heat_Forces_Students_to_Change_Routines_1200x675_505292867676.jpg

A handful of high school students and spectators were overcome by heat at a football game in Wilmington, Delaware Saturday, officials said.

Delaware Military Academy took on Wilmington Charter at Baynard Stadium around 1 p.m. when people started falling ill.

The temperature reached 91 degrees in the city with the heat index soaring to 101 degrees, according to the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team.

Firefighters and paramedics were called in to treat those who were overcome by the hot weather.

A cheerleading coach told NBC10 that a few of her cheerleaders were among the heat exhausted. She called the incident "very scary" and said adults were working hard to keep students hydrated.

<![CDATA[Record Set: For 41 Straight Hours, Temps Stayed Above 80]]> Sat, 10 Sep 2016 08:29:02 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/heatwave-military-generic-2.jpg

A odd temperature record for Philadelphia was apparently set Friday when temperatures remained above 80 degrees from midnight to midnight.

Friday, Sept. 9, 2016, became the first September day on record where the temperature stayed above 80 degrees for the entire 24-hour period. Meteorologists and weather nerds first became aware of the possibility for the weather oddity early Friday evening.

At 5 p.m., the National Weather Service in Mount Holly had predicted a steady fall in the temperature between then and midnight. And on cue, the temperature did fall, but at midnight, it was still 82 degrees, the NWS said in its three-day, hour-by-hour history.

At 2:54 a.m. Saturday morning, the temperature finally dipped below 80 - to 79 degrees, the NWS chart shows. 

Actually, according to the NWS, the temperature in Philadelphia remained above 80 degrees for 41 straight hours, from 8:54 a.m. Thursday through 1:54 a.m. Saturday.

One of Pennsylvania's notable weathermen, Steve Seman of Penn State's Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science even came up with a hashtag. On Friday evening, he and others said a thunderstorm rolling through the city seemed like the only variable standing in the way of all 80s over the next seven hours.

And as the Washington Post points out, nearby cities similarly felt the heat.

Friday was also the hottest Sept. 9 on record, peaking at 96 degrees in the afternoon.

Photo Credit: FILE
This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.]]>
<![CDATA[Heat Causes Another Early Dismissal for Local Students]]> Fri, 09 Sep 2016 21:00:24 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000017028995_1200x675_761586243885.jpg This week's high temperatures were an issue for schools, especially those without air conditioning. And some chose to send kids home early because of it.]]> <![CDATA[Heat Is on: Local Schools to Close Early Friday]]> Fri, 09 Sep 2016 14:01:35 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/school+empty+classroom.jpg

Just days after the school year has begun, the school day is already being cut short for Philadelphia public and parochial school students due to excessive heat.

With temperatures expected in the 90s with high humidity Friday, the Philadelphia School District announced that all schools would close at noon Friday. [[392766801, C]]

The heat also will impact after-school activities.

"All after-school activities including all athletic programs and professional development classes scheduled for Friday are canceled as well," said the district in a news release. "All District early childhood centers will remain open as per their regular schedule. In addition, administrative offices will be open according to their regular schedule."

Philadelphia schools dismissed as normal Thursday despite temps pushing into the high 90s. [[392802101, C]]

The district urged parents and students to check the website and call 215-400-4636 for more details.

Philadelphia Catholic schools will also close early Friday, following the school district's lead.

Camden City, Haddon Township and Trenton public schools in New Jersey as well as Reading and Upper dublin Townships schools in Pennsylvania also reported they would close early on Friday.

A list of local schools closed early this week due to the heat and humidity.

Keep up to date with any other school closings or early dismissals posted to the school closing section.

Photo Credit: Getty Images
This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.]]>
<![CDATA[Pa. Schools Dismiss Early Due to Heat, Humidity]]> Thu, 08 Sep 2016 14:55:55 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/202*120/Reading+School+District.JPG

A day after Trenton schools announced early dismissals due to heat, Reading schools made the same decision.

With temperatures expected in the 90s with high humidity Thursday, the Reading School District in Berks County, Pennsylvania announced that all schools would close early.

"Due to the record-setting excessive heat wave expected this afternoon and predicted heat index, ALL RSD students will be dismissed early on Thursday, Sept. 8," said a message on the school district website.

Schools will dismiss as follows:

  • Reading High School - 11:30 a.m.
  • All Elementary Schools - 11:40 a.m.
  • Reading Intermediate High School and All Middle Schools - 12:15 p.m.
  • AM-Pre-Kindergarten - Normal dismissal at 10:45 a.m.
  • There will be no PM-Pre-K and no PM Vo-Tech

Camden city schools also closed early Thursday, dismissing at 1 p.m.

School officials expected to announce Thursday night if they will dismiss students early again on Friday.

Photo Credit: Google Street View]]>
<![CDATA[No Such Thing as 'Hype' or 'Ratings' for Storms like Hermine]]> Wed, 07 Sep 2016 18:39:12 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WEB+Glenn+11pm+forecast+-+23195600_20720952.jpg

How about we start with some of the nastier tweets?

pure fear mongering. Exploited emotions for ratings. Should be embarrassed.

Feel sorry for the the shore businesses who lost $$$ because this fraud chose ratings over scientific fact

anything to say 2 the shore merchants you crushed with your catastrophic warnings

what do you say to those who feel this has been overhyped and cost shore businesses money?

You hyped the whole weather situation at the jersey shore

So what is "hype"?

Merriam-Webster defines hype as: 1. Deception 2. Publicity; especially promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind.

Hermine wasn’t hyped. The threat was real. The threat was for coastal flooding in parts of our region that could have been worse than Sandy. The threat was life-threatening. The threat was acknowledged by every meteorologist who knows anything about hurricanes. There wasn’t much disagreement on the threat.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) & National Weather Service used the term “life-threatening inundation” in their forecasts for our coastline. Their specific forecast for ocean levels from Atlantic City to Rehoboth Beach were literally at or above all-time record levels.

At one time or another, every computer model-from all over the world predicted a major storm taking a rare left turn and tracking dangerously close to the coast. It obviously wasn’t a repeat of Sandy -- not as large or tracking fast directly into the coast. But there were some scary similarities. The main difference was Hermine was threatening when coastal populations had swollen to beyond capacity due to the big holiday weekend. Sandy hit way after the summer season -- only a small fraction of the population of last weekend.

What is our mission as meteorologists?

We are not talking about a science like astronomy, where we can predict to the minute when the next eclipse will start and finish, and to the mile about which areas will see it. This is weather forecasting, which everyone knows is not an exact science. The science has improved steadily in the 40-plus years I’ve been forecasting, but chaos theory says that we can never be perfect.

So, when a life-threatening storm approaches on one of the busiest weekends of summer, what do we do? When the official forecast from the well-respected NHC predicts record coastal flooding, what do we say? Are we “hyping” the storm by relaying these statements? Of course not. It’s called “communication," and it is our responsibility to do it. And we need to communicate it at the same level of concern NHC does. If we don’t, we are being reckless and irresponsible.

What happened to Hermine?

Hermine was a headache to predict even before it became Hermine. The tropical wave originated off the coast of Africa Aug. 18, as the historical peak of hurricane season began. It struggled in its path across the Atlantic, often being predicted to strengthen into a tropical storm, but not doing so until it reached the Gulf of Mexico. It reached hurricane strength in the Northern Gulf before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

The future track looked like a threat to our part of the coast even before it made landfall. The forecast from the world-renowned European Model on Wednesday, Aug. 31, showed a potential future disaster: a hurricane tracking a mere 50 miles off of Cape May by Sunday morning.

The purple area (winds at 5000 feet of 74 to 92 mph) of maximum winds covered virtually ALL of NJ and DE, and even extended west of Philadelphia. Winds would be less at the ground-but not much less. Worse, it had Hermine stalling in the area for days, which would build up the seas to a point where record flooding would be possible in some areas.

The EURO is not only the best overall model in the world, but it has also been the best hurricane model for the past few years. It has even beaten the NHC models specifically designed for the tropics. As you may recall, the EURO was, by far, the best model during Sandy. It was predicting the rare, sharp left turn at the same time other models were tracking it out to sea. The EURO is run 51 times twice a day, and those 51 solutions are averaged into what is known as an “ensemble." I refer to this as “the best of the best." The ensembles showed the same solution. Twenty-four hours later, the EURO showed the same solution: an historic storm for the South Jersey shore and the Delaware beaches.

Other computer models started coming up with the same solution in the next couple of days, adding to the concern. Relying on only one model-even if it’s the best, can be a mistake at times. But when multiple models on multiple days come up with similar, yet rare solutions, it does more than raise eyebrows. So NHC predicted a track and intensity close to the EURO:

The consensus was that Hermine would track about 150 miles off the East Coast, then stall, and then start curving back toward the coast. Their “cone of uncertainty” extended from the Jersey shore itself out to about 300 miles offshore. It turned out that Hermine tracked up to 370 miles offshore! It went SO far east that even a strong and rare left turn days later still didn’t bring the storm as close to the coast as the NHC prediction had.

Compare the actual track below to the predicted one:

Why did Hermine track so far east?

Predicting a hurricane to stall or dramatically change course is, by far, the hardest part of the job. This means that the storm is entering an area with very weak (or changing) “steering currents." These currents are winds thousands of feet up. My former boss at NHC, Dr. Neil Frank used to say: “Hurricanes move along like logs in a river. But, in this case, the rivers MOVE." Modern computer models are much better at predicting these changing rivers, but….

In this case, even a 100 mile error in the forecast track was critical (even 50 miles would be important). So, precision was needed in the hardest part of the track forecast. Unlike with Sandy, the timing of the left turn was off. And that changed everything. Hermine was able to continue tracking east into the Atlantic farther and farther as the stall or turn was delayed. Even moving only 10 mph, a one day delay would mean a 240 mile error to the east. That’s exactly what happened.

Talking about 'uncertainty'

We know hurricane track forecasts won’t be perfect. We know the forecast of this particular storm was tough due to the unusual movement. But we also know that being “wishy-washy” in forecasts causes people to tend to NOT take action. Does the public want forecasts that say: “Well, the hurricane could track this way and lead to a life-threatening situation. Or it could track farther east, and we’ll end up with a nice weekend”?

What would people do if a meteorologist said that? Probably nothing. And if the worst happened, we would have failed as both meteorologists and communicators. Our mission of “protecting life and property” would be ignored.

The governors of New Jersey and Delaware did exactly the right thing by issuing a state of emergency. The consequences of not doing that, and have the storm merely do as predicted could have ended up tragically. And we in the local meteorological world also did the right things, even though they turned out wrong. As one of the rare tweets said:

This reminds me of the saying from one of my former colleagues at NHC many decades ago. He called it "The Meteorologist’s Motto":

“I forecast with great trepidation, and for that I have no regrets. Because when I’m right no one remembers, and when I’m wrong, no one forgets.”

Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[Hermine Makes Westerly Turn Far Off Coast]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2016 12:35:10 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Margate+Dark+Sky+Beach+Hermine.jpg

Hermine on Monday made the westerly turn forecast in earlier models -- but the turn came late enough that our region will continue to feel only minor effects.

The main concerns related to Hermine for the Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches continue to be minor threats of coastal flooding at high tide, winds along the shore and a high threat of rip currents in the ocean, NBC10 meteorologist Krystal Klei said. The most serious issue, the rip currents caused by the storm churning out at sea, has led to a number of beaches being closed for swimming during the Labor Day holiday.

Klei said Hermine's latest track, updated by the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. Monday, shows the storm poses a bigger threat now for parts of Long Island, Cape Cod, Boston and Providence. Hermine's peak winds still reached about 70 mph -- near hurricane-force -- on Monday as the storm moved northwest at 6 mph.  

NBC10's First Alert Weather Team is tracking the possibility of light rain along the shore, but otherwise, the majority of Hermine's impact will likely be felt in the form of clouds and wind.

Further inland, weather will stay pleasant, with temperatures reaching into the 80s Monday.

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The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued over land while a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect due to the threat of minor and moderate coastal flooding.

"This will continue through midweek until the storm moves farther away," meteorologist Sheena Parveen said.

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Photo Credit: Rebecca Banner
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<![CDATA[OCNJ Bans Beach Swimming as Hermine Kicks Up Currents]]> Mon, 05 Sep 2016 08:03:48 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000016960748_1200x675_758137923869.jpg Ocean City, NJ closed its beaches to swimmers Labor Day as Hermine continued to churn in the Atlantic, creating dangerous rip currents at New Jersey beaches. NBC10's Pamela Osborne is live in Ocean City with a look at the surf.]]> <![CDATA[Christie on Weaker Hermine: Flood Risk Still Possible for Jersey Shore]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 14:29:28 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WNBC_000000012961741_1200x675_757922371557.jpg New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie discusses his past decisions to order evacuations when storms approach. "This is always a damned if you do damned if you don't situation," Christie said. "I went through this with Irene and Sandy."]]> <![CDATA[Drone Video Shows Storm Damage in Fla.'s Alligator Point]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:08:25 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Alligator+Point+Drive+Damage+Hermine.jpg As Hurricane Hermine slammed into Florida's coast early Friday, the onrushing surf washed out a 5,000-foot stretch of road in Alligator Point. Video courtesy Daniel Martinko.

Photo Credit: Daniel Martinko]]>
<![CDATA[Coast Guard Rescues Kite Surfer]]> Sun, 04 Sep 2016 11:45:41 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/173*120/9316surfer.jpg

A U.S. Coast Guard crew rescued a kite surfer Saturday after he was pushed far off shore from Fire Island.

The crew of a 47-foot motor lifeboat found the surfer about one mile southwest of Democrat Point and pulled him out of the water, officials said. An emergency medical technician determined that the surfer wasn't injured.

"Cases like this really highlight just how dangerous it is out on the water right now,” said Capt. Andrew Tucci, commander of Sector Long Island Sound. “With the impending storm promising to make things even worse we strongly urge all boaters not to go out, especially paddle boats and other small craft.”

Photo Credit: U.S.Coast Guard]]>