<![CDATA[NBC 10 Philadelphia - Philadelphia Weather News and Coverage]]>Copyright 2016http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories http://media.nbcbayarea.com/designimages/NBC10_40x125.png NBC 10 Philadelphia http://www.nbcphiladelphia.comen-usMon, 30 May 2016 12:29:54 -0400Mon, 30 May 2016 12:29:54 -0400NBC Owned Television Stations <![CDATA[Today's Forecast]]> Mon, 30 May 2016 08:51:17 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/185*120/Glenn_schwartz_sheena_parveen_1.jpg

Tropical moisture streaming up the east coast will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms with some heavy downpours for Memorial Day. Rainy weather is most likely for the shore and the Delaware beaches and into interior NJ & DE. Cloudy skies and a chance of showers today for Philadelphia and surrounding communities.
Clearing overnight tonight, sunny and warmer Tuesday.

Memorial Day: Cloudy, chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 78

Tue: Mostly sunny and warm. High 88

Wed: Mainly sunny, 82

Thu: Partly sunny, 76

Fri: Mostly cloudy, showers. 79

Sat: Chance of rain, 77

Sun: Partly sunny, 82


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<![CDATA[Memorial Day Weekend Ends With Heavy Rain, Storms ]]> Mon, 30 May 2016 10:00:05 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/rain-stock-breaking-148110839.jpg

Sunny skies and warm weather gave way to heavy rain and cooler temperatures during Memorial Day Weekend.

Tropical Depression Bonnie moved into our area around 6 p.m. Sunday. While Bonnie weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression, it the storm still packed a punch, bringing downpours to some areas overnight.

The system poured an average of more than an inch of rain an hour in some places before moving out as it continued north up the coast.

Though the bulk of Bonnie was out by mid-morning Monday, spotty showers and clouds will be the theme of the day for most of the area, with the possibility of a stray thunderstorm or two in some places.

In addition to the rain, temperatures dropped slightly on Monday, with highs reaching into the 70s in most areas.

A drying trend will start overnight Monday into Tuesday, bringing sun back for much of the remainder of the week. Rain is expected to return on the weekend.

Several towns canceled their Memorial Day Parades ahead of the rain. Click here to see a list of cancellations.

Stay with NBC10.com and the NBC10 app for the latest weather updates.

]]>
<![CDATA[First Alert: Tropical Storm Bonnie Weakens to Depression]]> Sun, 29 May 2016 10:38:59 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/214*120/Tropical+Storm+Depression+Bonnie+Shot+from+Carolinas.JPG

A tropical storm that poured rain along the East Coast in the South weakened Sunday morning to a tropical depression as it traveled north.

The National Hurricane Center issued an advisory at 8 a.m. Sunday that Tropical Storm Bonnie weakened to a depression near the coast of the Carolinas.

The storm was expected to make landfall Sunday morning. The National Hurricane Center advisory said much of the Carolinas and coastal Georgia continued to see heavy rain Sunday morning, even as the storm weakened.

All tropical storm warnings and coastal watches and warnings issued in connection with Tropical Depression Bonnie were discontinued.

Bonnie continued to move north at about 9 mph with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.

The storm could bring rip currents to the Jersey Shore as it moves north. A National Weather Service statement issued early Sunday warned ocean swimmers to stay within sight of lifeguards on New Jersey beaches.

The tropical depression is expected to bring bouts of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms to the Delaware Valley and Jersey Shore in time for Memorial Day.

 

 


Stay with NBC10.com and the NBC10 app for continuing First Alert Weather coverage.



Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[Beautiful Weather Kicks Off Summer at the Shore]]> Sun, 29 May 2016 08:58:49 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015510996_1200x675_695024707680.jpg The holiday weekend's hot, sunny weather brought people in droves to the Jersey Shore, making for a strong start to the summer season for beach towns. NBC10's Pamela Osborne is live on the boardwalk in Ocean City.]]> <![CDATA[Positives & Negatives of Summerlike Heat]]> Thu, 26 May 2016 13:10:04 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015476259_1200x675_693397059898.jpg Heat greeted fans of the Devon Horse Show Thursday.]]> <![CDATA[Memorial Day Weekend Warmup Continues ]]> Thu, 26 May 2016 01:06:39 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Warming-Trend-Philadelphia.jpg

IF YOU THINK IT IS HOT ALREADY, JUST WAIT!
We’ve seen a tremendous jump in temperatures since Saturday. Here are the official high temperatures in Philadelphia:

Saturday: 62

Sunday: 66

Monday: 76

Tuesday: 83

Wednesday: 88

The average (or “normal”) high for this time of year is 77. So we’ve gone from 15 degrees below normal to about 15 degrees above normal (once we get to the predicted 92).

BUT AT LEAST IT’S NOT HUMID-YET
Relative humidity dropped to only 19% Wednesday afternoon, which is extremely low for this part of the country. For those who follow dewpoints, it was around 40. By Friday, the afternoon dewpoint should be around 60, or even higher. That would make the relative humidity closer to 40%. That’s still not up to July levels, but pretty close.

(Relative humidity is just that-relative-to the temperature. So, in the afternoon, when it gets most uncomfortable, the relative humidity is the lowest. That’s very confusing. And that’s why we normally don’t use relative humidity on TV. The dewpoint is much more consistent from day to night)

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY
There isn’t any day of the weekend (Friday through Monday), when the chance of rain is zero. But it’s pretty low Friday and Saturday, and then it goes up Sunday. By Memorial Day itself, showers become likely. But even then, it’s not a washout. Here are the forecast weather maps for those days:

The maps show a generally dry pattern Friday, with HIGH pressure well offshore (the “Bermuda High”). That means a wind flow from the south, which will result in sea breezes at the shore, keeping temperatures much lower than those inland. The green in the rain area, but it doesn’t mean it’ll be raining everywhere at any given time Monday.

Forecast High Temps

PhiladelphiaJersey ShoreDel. Beaches
Friday937888
Saturday947989
Sunday887379
Monday786669


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<![CDATA[Beautiful Sunrise to Start Work Week Down the Shore]]> Mon, 23 May 2016 09:12:11 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015413125_1200x675_690951747683.jpg NBC10 Jersey Shore reporter Ted Greenberg shot a beautiful sunrise on the beach in Ventnor, New Jersey Monday morning.]]> <![CDATA[Hurricane's Blog: Summer-Like Temps for Holiday Weekend ]]> Mon, 23 May 2016 10:57:44 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Summer-Heat.jpg

MAY SHOWERS…AND CLOUDS…AND CHILLY
It’s no secret that this May has been one of the coolest, cloudiest, and wettest ones in memory. We’ve had at least some rain on 17 of the 22 days this month. And how about sunshine? We’ve had exactly ONE official sunny day, as opposed to 14 days of overcast or near-overcast skies.

Temperatures have been above “normal” on only 3 days. Overall, May has been about 4.1 degrees below normal. It’s going to end a streak of 11 straight months of above normal temperatures in Philadelphia.

Here is a look at temperatures compared to normal Sunday 5/22:

[[380438011, C]]

BUT IT’S ALL GOING TO CHANGE-FAST!
Instead of temperatures gradually returning to normal and perhaps a bit higher, we’re about to see a huge jump in temperatures over less than a week. The high Saturday 5/21 in Philadelphia was only 62 (normal is 76). In Wilmington, DE it was only 60. And in some parts of Southern Delaware and at the Jersey Shore, it didn’t even get out of the 50s.

The pattern will change so fast that we’ll be in full summer levels by this Thursday, and it should stay unseasonably warm all the way through the Memorial Day Weekend. We could even see a day or two that reach 90 degrees. Here is the map of temperatures compared to normal only a few days from now-Thursday.

[[380438031, C]]

The continuous cloud cover and occasional rain will be gone along with the chill. But that doesn’t mean it will be bright and sunny all day through the holiday. The summer pattern could lead to some summer thunderstorms for at least part of the weekend. But at least it’ll feel like summer!


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<![CDATA[Fun, Weather & Baseball for Young Phillies Fans]]> Thu, 19 May 2016 06:05:25 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015360297_1200x675_688661059786.jpg Weather took stage at home plate as the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team hosted Citizens Bank Weather Education Day Wednesday at the home of the Phillies.]]> <![CDATA[NBC10 Weather Education Day at Phillies Ballpark]]> Thu, 19 May 2016 06:06:51 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/CBPedit.jpg

NBC10 personalities will be at the home of the Phillies Wednesday afternoon for the second-annual Citizens Bank Weather Education Day Presented by NBC10 First Alert Weather.

NBC10 First Alert Weather team members Bill Henley, Sheena Parveen, Violeta Yas and chief meteorologist (and huge Phillies fan) Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz will provide an educational experience focused on weather that all students will enjoy. Hundreds of busloads of area students -- about 11,000 rally-towel-waving children in total -- came to the ballpark for the demonstrations before the Phils faced the Miami Marlins.

"Students of all ages will enjoy this ultimate field trip experience filled with both learning and fun," said the Phillies. [[379931931, C]]

Even if you couldn't make it down to the ballpark you could still check out the educational fun by watching LIVE on this page and following NBC10 on Facebook and Twitter. [[379950861, C]]

The weather programs got underway around 10:30 a.m. and the first pitch of the game is at 1:05 p.m.



Photo Credit: Getty Images
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<![CDATA[Meet the NBC10 Weather Team at Weather Education Day]]> Mon, 16 May 2016 06:22:12 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015304063_1200x675_686395971837.jpg The First Alert Weather Team will be at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday for NBC10's Weather Education Day. The meteorologists will teach kids about the weather by conducting experiments at the park.]]> <![CDATA[Frost Advisory, Freeze Warning in Effect]]> Mon, 16 May 2016 00:53:30 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Frost-Generic.jpg

UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT

The average (or “normal”) low for May 16th is 54 degrees in Philadelphia. In Allentown, it’s 48. In Mt. Pocono, it’s 45. It’s going to be WAAAAY colder than that Monday morning. It’ll be so cold that there are actually Frost and Freeze Warnings in parts of our area.

[[379585191, C]]

The area in purple is under a Freeze Warning, meaning the official temperature at instrument level (4 ft.) is expected to be 32 degrees or lower. That includes Carbon and Monroe counties, in the Poconos.

The area in light blue is under a Frost Advisory, and it includes Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton counties in our area. That means that as the wind diminishes Sunday night, temperatures at the instrument level might be above 32 degrees, but at ground level, they could drop to 32 degrees or lower. “Unprotected sensitive plants may be damaged or killed.” It’s important to protect or bring plants indoors. (By the way, the record low for Allentown for Monday is 37 degrees in 1939, and we’ll be close).

These advisories are in effect until 8 a.m. Monday, when temperatures will start climbing as the sun comes out. According to the advisories: “sensitive plants could be damaged if not protected or brought inside”. So in those areas, some precautions are advised.

THE CHILL WON’T LAST, THOUGH

This is just a one night thing. It won’t be nearly as cold for the rest of the week, and would be highly unlikely to occur even later in the month. But unless we see a big warm-up later in the month, this should break our string of 13 straight months with above normal temperatures.

But it doesn’t say anything about how hot the summer will be. That forecast will come later.


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<![CDATA[Crazy Climate Coincidences]]> Fri, 13 May 2016 09:10:49 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/180*120/AP_925393290929-solar.jpg

THE COSMIC COINCIDENCE

I love coincidences. The best one is the fact that from our view on earth, the moon and sun appear to be exactly the same size. Actually, the sun is about 400 times wider than the moon, but it is also about 400 times farther away. This is why total solar eclipses are so spectacular. The odds of this happening are astronomical (pun intended). Yet it is purely a coincidence. 

OTHER POPULAR COINCIDENCES

LINCOLN AND KENNEDY

Some of this is true, but some is urban legend:

1. Both defeated incumbent Vice Presidents

2. Both their Vice Presidents were Southern Democrats named Johnson

3. Both presidents were shot in the head on a Friday, seated next to their wives

4. Both presidents fathered 4 children, and had a son die during his presidency

5. Each assassin committed his crime in the building where he was employed

6. After shooting Lincoln, Booth ran from a theater to a warehouse; after shooting Kennedy, Oswald ran from a warehouse to a theater

7. Both assassins were killed before being tried

And more…… 

THOMAS JEFFERSON AND JOHN ADAMS

Both presidents died on the same day-July 4, 1826. It was the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. And yet another president, James Monroe, died on the 4th of July. 

WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH CLIMATE CHANGE?

Sometimes coincidences happen. But most times that one thing seems to cause another thing, they really are connected (unless it interferes with your pre-conceived beliefs…..) 

It must be a coincidence that: 

*Global temperatures have increased as carbon dioxide has increased (as expected from global warming science (GWS)……yes

[[379261691,C]] 

*Warmer oceans hold more moisture which leads to more days with downpours…..already happening

[[379261781,C]] 

*Warmer oceans lead to higher sea levels, which lead to more days of coastal flooding….already happening

[[379262801,C]] 

*Warmer oceans in winter lead to more moisture. If it’s cold enough, the big snowstorms get bigger….already happening 

[[379262861,C]] 

*Warmer oceans in winter can help lead to bigger snowstorms when it is cold enough for snow (the map below from the winter of 2015-16 just before our one giant snowstorm of the winter in the Philadelphia area)….already happening

[[379262901,C]] 

*Sea level has been steadily increasing in recent decades…as expected by GWS…..already happening

[[379263261,C]] 

*As more carbon dioxide gets dissolved into the oceans, the water will become more acidic….already happening 

[[379264171,C]] 

*The amount of snow cover overall will decrease due to higher temperatures and fewer snow days…..already happening

[[379264331,C]] 

*Warmer oceans allow any given hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone to become more intense. This is true for many parts of the world…..already happening

[[379264251,C]] 

*Warmer temperatures will lead to overall less snow pack due to melting snow in addition to fewer days with snow….already happening

[[379263381,C]] 

*The poles will warm more than other areas, helping to accelerate ice melt in the Arctic….already happening (sea ice melt leads to higher temperatures, which leads to more melting, which leads to higher temperatures…etc) 

[[379264851,C]] 

*Ice melt on land directly leads to higher sea levels. Greenland is critical,

And melting continues there…already happening 

[[379265021,C]] 

*Parts of the Antarctic Peninsula are vulnerable to quick ice melt…while sea ice is increasing in other parts of the continent, the fragile Peninsula is indeed already melting.

[[379265091,C]] 

*The great majority of glaciers around the world will have significant melting due to higher temperatures…already happening

[[379265201,C]] 

Either this is the most amazing series of coincidences I’ve ever heard of, or global warming is already having a significant impact in many ways over many areas. Are you willing to bet the future that all of these “coincidences” will stop or reverse themselves? Or do we take this seriously and do something to at least slow down these changes? 

 

Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz

Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia



Photo Credit: AP
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<![CDATA[Meet NBC10's Meteorologists at Weather Education Day]]> Thu, 12 May 2016 04:46:41 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015253730_1200x675_684227139590.jpg NBC10's First Alert Weather Team will do weather demonstrations and teach kids about the science behind the weather during the second annual Weather Education Day on Wednesday, April 18 at Citizens Bank Park.]]> <![CDATA["Hurricane" Schwartz: At the Shore, the Ocean is Winning the Battle]]> Tue, 10 May 2016 19:10:13 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/nj+coastal+flooding+2+9.jpg

IN THE GOOD OLD DAYS

I’ve been going to the Jersey Shore since the 50s. My parents have lived there full-time for about 20 years. So I’m pretty familiar with how things have changed. The bottom line: IT FLOODS MORE FREQUENTLY AND MORE SEVERELY. Ask anyone who lives near the back bays in Atlantic City, Ventnor, Margate, Ocean City, Sea Isle City, and more, and they’ll tell you the same thing.

In the old days, it would take an actual storm to produce flooding. It could be a strong nor’easter or a brush with a hurricane, but floods were not frequent. The blocking pattern last week is a perfect example of how easy it is for flooding to occur at the Shore.

LESS THAN A FOOT?

In the National Weather Service discussion early last week, there was a special section on coastal flooding. Tides were going to be high regardless of any storms, simply due to the coming new moon (tides get higher near the full moon and new moon). There’s also a thing called "Spring Tides," when the Earth, sun and moon are in a line. Their gravitational pulls reinforce each other, and the resulting high tides are even higher than others during the year. But still ...

The NWS statement:

THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET

TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR (flood) THRESHOLD.

So, wait a minute! Are they saying that the "storm" only has to raise the water level by 0.7 feet to create coastal flooding? Less than ONE FOOT? Yup, they are.

SEA LEVEL RISE HAS BEEN BIGGER AROUND HERE

The sea level doesn't rise equally across the world. It's simple physics: warm the oceans, and sea level will rise. It’s called "thermal expansion."

And there’s no doubt the sea level all along the East Coast has been rising in the past century. Here’s what the Atlantic City graph looks like:

[[378829091, C, 1000, 400]]

New Jersey's sea level rise is about more than the general warming of the oceans that is affecting coastlines all over the world. It's been rising faster in our area due to "subsidence" (the land sinks a bit), plus changes in the nearby Gulf Stream (possibly related to global warming as well). It all adds up to trouble: sea level has risen about 8 inches in Atlantic City since 1970 alone (about 15 inches since 1900). That doesn't seem like much, but look at what it's done. It floods with a wimpy, barely-there nor'easter! And that's NOW. What happens in the future, as sea level continues to rise?

"WE AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET"

In the 1990s, Atlantic City reported fewer than 10 days a year with at least minor coastal flooding. By this decade, the number is close to 30. And with projections of continuing sea level rise (there’s nothing to stop it), the frequency of flooding will become astonishing.

The list below shows how many days with coastal flooding ...

1. Currently

2. In 2030, and

3. In 2045

For Cape May, NJ

1. About 30

2. About 125 days

3. About 300

For Atlantic City, NJ

1. About 30

2. About 90 days

3. About 240

For Lewes, DE

1. About 25

2. About 90 days

3. About 220 days

We’re only talking about 30 years from now, when it will flood at high tide about SIX days every week in Cape May, and FIVE days a week in Atlantic City!


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<![CDATA[NBC10 First Alert Severe Weather Central]]> Sun, 24 Jan 2016 16:34:40 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/generic+umbrella+rain+storm.jpg

Photo Credit: Shutterstock]]>
<![CDATA[Extreme Weather: Floods in Mogadishu]]> Mon, 30 May 2016 09:40:48 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/214*120/GettyImages-534430380-floods.jpg Take a look at photos of extreme weather from the U.S. and around the world, from floods to snow to rough seas.

Photo Credit: AFP/Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[Wet Weather Puts Damper On Delaware Events]]> Sat, 07 May 2016 02:17:53 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015175486_1200x675_681172547774.jpg The wet weather seems to be making a lot of changes to events throughout Delaware. NBC10’s Tim Furlong is at the Flower Market in Wilmington with more.]]> <![CDATA[Coastal Flooding Hits Jersey Shore]]> Sat, 07 May 2016 01:48:39 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015174630_1200x675_681014339843.jpg There is a threat for more coastal flooding Friday evening. NBC10’s Ted Greenberg is in West Wildwood with the latest conditions.]]> <![CDATA[Flood Threat at Jersey Shore]]> Fri, 06 May 2016 11:13:56 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000015166443_1200x675_680585283966.jpg Continued rain brings a threat of flooding in Ocean City, New Jersey on Friday. Drivers should expect rain to impact their commutes.]]> <![CDATA[Stuck in the Block: How Long Will the Rainy Weather Last?]]> Wed, 04 May 2016 00:12:14 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/rain-generic-GettyImages-456729820.jpg

IT’S OUR TURN, NOW (WITHOUT THE FLOODS)
Remember when we had those ten straight dry, sunny days last month? While many of us were enjoying that stretch of weather, it was day after day of rain in Louisiana and surrounding states, causing record flooding. It’s known as a Blocking Pattern, and it’s our turn to get stuck in the cool, cloudy, and damp part of one.

IS THIS UNUSUAL?
No. We have seen blocking patterns in the upper atmosphere as long as we’ve seen maps of the upper atmosphere. They are more common in some parts of the year and more common in certain parts of the world. If we didn’t have blocking patterns, that would be unusual.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR US
In this case, the cool, cloudy, damp weather will continue through at least Friday. Temperatures may not even reach 60 in many parts of the area (our normal high is 70). I don’t expect a lot of rain to fall-no flood threat or anything close to it. But we will see fog and some drizzle at times during the next two days. By Friday, the center of the upper-air low will be right over us, so that may be the day when we see more hours of rain. There could even be some coastal flooding, due to the persistent wind off the ocean plus the new moon (which raises tides all by itself).

Here is that upper-air map for Friday. That’s pretty extreme for May.

[[378056661, C]]

The blue areas are below normal pressures, with the center of the upper low right over Delaware Bay. And here’s the surface map for the same time:

[[378056781, C]]

That’s a map that shows a rainy and chilly pattern, especially for May.

WHEN IS THIS BLOCKING PATTERN GOING TO BREAK UP?
It takes a while for blocking this strong to break up, and that’s been the case this spring. Look at the upper-air pattern for Thursday:

[[378056901, C]]

Not only is there a strong LOW in the Eastern U.S., there’s another one along the California coast. And then there’s a HIGH pressure ridge in-between. Does the U.S. pattern look familiar? It looks like the Greek letter Omega:

[[378056981, C]]

OK, it may not look exactly like an Omega to some of you, but meteorologists have been using the term for ages.

This particular Omega Block will be breaking up over the weekend, just in time to allow for some sunshine and mild temperatures to return. And the pattern by the middle of next week will look much different than it does now.

[[378057031, C]]

That’s a more “normal” pattern, which will allow much warmer air to move in. And lo and behold: temperatures near 80 are in the forecast by Wednesday.



Photo Credit: Getty Images
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<![CDATA[No Lights, No School in Delaware]]> Tue, 03 May 2016 08:17:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/200*120/Smyrna+High+School+Smyrna+Middle+School.JPG

Power outages knocked out classes from some Delaware students Tuesday.

The Smyrna School District closed the middle and high schools on Duck Creek Parkway due to a lack of power, said the district.

No word yet on when power will be restored.

Strong storms moved through the area overnight knocking out power to some customers. The district didn't reveal what was to blame for the outages at the schools.



Photo Credit: Google Earth]]>
<![CDATA[NBC10 First Alert: Rain Continues Through The Night]]> Tue, 03 May 2016 01:32:33 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/sheenamidnight_1200x675_678252099953.jpg Meteorologist Sheena Parveen has your Neighborhood Weather update as thunderstorms make their way though the area. ]]> <![CDATA[Heavy Rain and Flooding to Hit Area ]]> Tue, 03 May 2016 00:28:43 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Heavy+Rain+Localized+Flooding.jpg A system bringing heavy rain, localized flooding and possible thunderstorms is set to hit our area Monday night and last until Tuesday morning. Check out the expected rain totals and timing below. ]]> <![CDATA[Dealing With a Rainy Blue Cross Broad Street Run]]> Fri, 29 Apr 2016 13:40:00 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Marathon+Running+in+Rain+Boston.jpg

NBC10 digital producer Dan Stamm has completed eight Blue Cross Broad Street Runs (including one in a downpour) and 10 marathons (some in the rain). He has also completed numerous 5Ks, half marathons and other distance runs in a variety of conditions from cold to scorching heat.

I don’t consider myself an expert but I know a thing or two about running, and even running in the rain thanks to my experiences. Here are a few tips (from myself and the experts at Runner’s World) for Blue Cross Broad Street Run participants not used to dreary conditions or not used to running 10-miles drenched.

Manage expectations: With rain comes slipperier roads and likely slower times. If you don’t quite hit your goal, don’t beat yourself up, look behind you, you still beat plenty of people.

Wear the right clothes: Heavy clothing light sweatpants and shirts might keep you warm but they get heavy as they get wet. I suggest wearing light tech material clothing and running tights if you want to stay warm – the tighter the item, the less likely you will chafe. A hat – ideally a waterproof cap – can also help keep the rain out of your face and your head warm.

Wear the right socks: The moisture could increase your chance of getting blisters so wear socks that wick moisture away and also place some anti-chafing agent on problem spots on your feet.

Protect from chafing: Talking about chafing (it's a dirty word)... Use a petroleum-based product or an anti-chafing cream that can withstand the moisture and prevent chafing – target arms, inner thighs, feet, bra lines and nipples with the lube. I personally also bandage my nipples to prevent irritation.

Stay hydrated: Just cause it’s raining and a little chilly doesn’t mean you don’t need to stay hydrated. Be sure to get water and Gatorade from the stations along the way. Also, drink fluids starting the day before the race.

Get out of the wet clothes: Once you cross the finish line and grab your well-deserved medal, be sure to change into drier clothing as quickly as possible. Pack a pair of comfortable sandals in your checked bag and take off those running shoes and wet socks post-race.

Stay Calm: It’s rain, you’ve seen it before, you’ll see it again. Smile, stick your tongue out if you want, and enjoy the trip down Broad Street.

Keep an eye out for Dan Stamm and the rest of the NBC10 Team at the 2016 Blue Cross Broad Street Run.



Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[Running in the Rain?]]> Thu, 28 Apr 2016 18:19:04 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Broad+Street+Run+starting+line+City+Photo.jpg

CLOUDY, COOL, DAMP WEEKEND

It won’t be raining the whole time, but there WILL be some rain this weekend, and it will NOT be warm-or even mild. Overall, it looks like Saturday will have better weather than Sunday, but even Saturday is no picnic. It is likely to be raining during the Blue Cross Broad Street Run Sunday morning. 

WHY ARE CLOUDS & RAIN SO PERSISTENT?

It’s largely about the wind-specifically the wind direction. The first step in making my weather forecast is always the wind, since it’s so important in forecasting in this area. A wind from the ocean (East or Northeast) will be a major factor, especially if it lasts for days. Eventually, clouds will be moving in, and once they’re here, it’s hard to get rid of them until the wind direction changes. That is the current issue. 

Here’s a map of where our air is coming from. New Jersey and Long Island stick out pretty clearly, so you can tell where we are on the map. You can find an animation of this map here:

[[377498811, C]]

Computer models show that this basic pattern will last for several more days. This means cooler than normal weather, lots of clouds, and some periods of rain. These persistent East winds are common this time of year, and can keep temperatures in the 50s for days. And if the ocean is cold enough, it can stay in the 40s! 

That’s the current picture. Let’s see how it changes over the next few days… 

MORE EAST WIND=MORE CHILLY, WET WEATHER

Here’s a forecast wind map for Friday afternoon. The east wind is coming from hundreds of miles out in the ocean. There’s no way we can warm up with a wind like that.

[[377498891, C]]

There’s no sense showing what this map will look like over the weekend, since it will barely change. 

Here is the result of those persistent east winds:

[[377498951, C]] 

That’s the forecast from the NAM model for the same time as the earlier wind map. The green is the rain. That area of rain moves out, so Saturday is merely cloudy and chilly:

[[377499161, C]]

But the rain-even heavier rain-is approaching from the west by late Saturday. That means rain for Sunday, and it could be briefly heavy:

[[377499441, C]]

It doesn’t improve for Monday. But that should be the last day of the east wind-aided chill and rain. We’ll get back to normal-eventually.

Here is the forecast for the next 4 days:

Friday: Cloudy and chilly. High only 55. Periods of rain, mainly in afternoon

Saturday: Cloudy and chilly. High 61. Chance of rain at night

Sunday: Rain, heavy at times. Still chilly, with high only 58.

Monday: Periods of rain. Still chilly, with high 61.



Photo Credit: Kait Privitera
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<![CDATA[Thunderstorms Move Through Region ]]> Wed, 27 Apr 2016 00:19:05 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Storm-Clouds-Philly-Amtrak.jpg

Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through our area Tuesday.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect for Burlington County and Ocean County in New Jersey as well as Chester County, Delaware County and Montgomery County in Pennsylvania until 6:30 p.m.

Lightning and hail was also spotted in parts of Central New Jersey early Tuesday evening. The system moved out of the area around 8 p.m.

A rainbow was also spotted in parts of the region after the storms passed through.

[[377190011, C]]



Photo Credit: Mary Ellen
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<![CDATA[The Global Warming "Tease"]]> Tue, 26 Apr 2016 14:53:59 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/178*120/102708-Top-News-Gallery-Morning-Walk.jpg

THE “APPEAL” OF GLOBAL WARMING

Scientists talk about Global Warming as a problem (or even pending disaster) so often that it may be hard to take seriously. After all, most people seem to like warmer winters, the flowers to bloom earlier and a warmer ocean to swim in. No wonder Global Warming is always WAAAAY down on the list of things the public worries about the most.

“GLOBAL WARMING FEELS QUITE PLEASANT”

I didn’t say it-it’s the title of an article in the New York Times last Thursday. A paper in the latest issue of the journal “Nature,” the authors write that ”for a vast majority of Americans, the weather is simply becoming more pleasant. Over the past four decades, winter temperatures have risen substantially throughout the United States, but summers have not become markedly more uncomfortable.”

(Of course, there are some who hate many of the changes we’ve seen: skiers who bemoan the shorter season; snow plow operators not happy about making less money; and certain students and teachers who are upset about fewer “snow days”. But that is a small minority.)

So, the obvious result is a contradiction between what many scientists and politicians have been saying. It’s hard to be concerned about something that is showing so few obvious signs of the serious problem that is likely ahead of us. We can raise our voices and point at charts of ice loss in the Arctic and all we get is yawns from too many people. And I’m afraid that there’s not much that can be done about this. It’s hard to tell folks to not believe what they’re seeing with their own eyes.

HERE’S WHAT PEOPLE AREN’T SEEING

Not many people have traveled to the Arctic to see the dramatic loss of ice that has occurred from Alaska to Greenland (and beyond). And even if you do travel there, there’s no basis for comparison. Only the people who live in those areas can clearly see the dramatic changes that have occurred over recent decades.

Here is what those of us in the Continental U.S. cannot see:

1. Carbon dioxide itself-it has no color or smell. But it can be measured, and has steadily increased for more than 50 years.

[[377140831,C]]

2. Deadly heat waves-in Europe, the Middle East, South Asia (India/Pakistan), East Asia (Japan/China), Russia, and more:

2003 Europe       50,000-70,000 killed

2010 Russia        56,000

2006 Europe         3400+

2015 India            2500

2015 Pakistan       2500

2010 Japan           1700+

3. Loss of Arctic sea ice

[[377141011,C]]

4. Loss (and darkening) of Greenland sea ice

5. Warming ocean temperatures

[[377141151,C]]

6. Warming of subsurface ocean

[[377141181,C]]

7. Rising sea level

[[377141251,C]]

8. Retreat of most glaciers

9. Ocean acidification

[[377141281,C]]

10. Coral bleaching

THIS IS WHAT IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS

1. More downpours=worse flooding

[[377141361,C]]

2. Intensity of winter storms (warming=more water vapor=”wetter” storms

[[377141421,C]]

3. More frequent and more severe coastal flooding

[[377141491,C]]

All of the above changes are agreed on by most climate scientists. These are not computer projections-this is based on actual data.

There is more disagreement about the following, but evidence of a global warming connection seems to be increasing:

1. More intense tropical cyclones (hurricanes & typhoons). Total numbers of storms haven’t changed much, but a greater percentage has become intense in recent years.

2. More heavy snowstorms. The total number of days with snow has decreased in many areas, but a greater percentage of snowstorms has become major in recent years

3. More frequent and more severe droughts. Many scientists are convinced that warming temperatures have already led to this.

IF YOU THINK IT’S OBVIOUS NOW……

It wasn’t that long ago that most climate scientists didn’t expect many of these major changes to show up for decades. For example, the Arctic ice melt is happening WAAAAY faster than their computer models showed. These changes are not likely to reverse themselves in the future, as long as global temperatures continue to rise.

Eventually, with enough of these changes becoming obvious, more and more people will care a lot more about climate change. Unfortunately, by the time this happens, it will be even harder to stop the changes, let alone reverse them. We’ve been “teased” by the “nice” weather. So far.

Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz

Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia



Photo Credit: AP
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<![CDATA[Sudden Tsunami Buoy Movement Off NJ Coast Raises Concerns]]> Mon, 25 Apr 2016 11:11:27 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Tsunmai+Buoy+New+Jersey+Texas+44066.jpg

A tsunami buoy off the New Jersey coast went into "event mode" Sunday night, raising concerns after it recorded a very steep wave reading while undergoing maintenance.

Texas Tower No. 4 Station 44066 — a tsunami buoy located about 75 nautical miles east of Long Branch, New Jersey — recorded a sudden change of about 55 meters in water depth in a matter of seconds. A report on New York-based Superstation95’s website was shared across social media overnight.

"Event mode" occurs when the algorithm on the Bottom Pressure Recorder (BPR) detects info more often — every 15 seconds is possible — due to sudden activity.

[[376960521, C]]

The seemingly seismic event, which occurred around 22:38 UTC (6:38 p.m. Eastern Time), raised fears among community members.

But no, it wasn’t an earthquake — the nearest quake, recorded off the coast of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, about 10 minutes later, was unrelated — nor was some super wave headed for the Jersey Shore.

[[287977901, C]]

The event was actually caused by routine maintenance work being done to the buoy, the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) told NBC10 Monday morning.

Often, the NDBC will turn off the buoys while work is being done to avoid causing concern like what happened in this case, said the Mississippi-based NDBC. 

"Not every Event is a tsunami," says the NBDC website. "In some cases, it can go into Event Mode because of electronic problems, or during the recovery of a BPR. The tsunami warning centers can initiate an event to have the tsunameter report more frequently in anticipation of tsunami. Events are usually initiated by the seismic signal from an earthquake, and the actual tsunami, if there is one, will pass the tsunameter later. It requires expert analysis to determine a tsunami from the tsunameter data."

The NDBC works on buoys about once a year.

[[238427591, C]]



Photo Credit: National Data Buoy Center
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<![CDATA[Glenn Explains NBC10's New "Neighborhood Weather" ]]> Thu, 21 Apr 2016 00:13:52 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/10-Day-Outlook.jpg

WHAT IT IS
The area covered by NBC10 goes from the Lehigh Valley to southern Delaware-from Western Chester County to the Jersey Shore. That’s a huge area, which often sees huge differences in weather at any one time. I’ve seen temperature differences of more than 30 degrees. There actually was a snowstorm that ranged from 2” to 50” (yes, in the SAME storm!). It has been impossible for TV stations to show that complete picture on a day-to-day and hour-to-hour basis. Now we can.

“MY, HAVE THINGS CHANGED!”
When I started doing TV weather around 1980, there were only a few airports in the region that provided hourly reports. Weather satellites only gave us fuzzy pictures a couple of times a day. Computer models were primitive, at best. Forecasts had value to only about THREE days out. Anyone attempting a 5-day forecast back then couldn’t do better than guessing (no, we don’t do that now).

Now, everything in weather forecasting has changed. We have live reports of current weather for a couple of hundred locations in our area. Weather satellites have such high resolution that we can clearly see a single thunderstorm from about 22,000 feet up, with minute-by-minute pictures that get put into smooth time-lapses.  The surface and satellite data is now entered into some of the fastest computers in the world. As a result, computer models have gotten better and better, and more and more detailed in recent years.

Don’t you think it’s about time that we shared that increased information with you?

NBC10’S FIRST ALERT NEIGHBORHOOD WEATHER
We now have so much information at our disposal that frankly it’s hard to narrow down what to show in any single weathercast. So now we can show drastically different types of current and forecast weather every time you see us. We might show The Shore one time, the Lehigh Valley the next, then Delaware, etc. And boy, do we have current weather to show you! How about 40 towns in Delaware alone? We can show the effect of the sea breeze in great detail. This tremendous increase in current data comes mainly from our new exclusive partnership with Weather Underground, a highly respected company that has been at the cutting edge since the internet was started! The partnership allows us to find out and display current weather conditions anywhere in the world… from Pennsylvania to Paris, Delaware to Delhi.

How about forecasts? We now can make individual forecasts for dozens of neighborhoods in the area. We can show the same spot hour-by-hour, or show a forecast for NINE different locations on the same graphic. We have 5-day forecasts, and now even a 10 day forecast (more on that later). And no longer is there just a 7-day forecast for Philadelphia-there’s one for each part of our area, and it’s scrolled CONTINUOUSLY on the bottom of the screen during each weathercast.  

We realize these are big changes, and it will take some time to get used to what may feel like a barrage of information. But we feel that our viewers will gradually get used to it, and appreciate seeing current and forecast conditions for their neighborhood. Ever heard of a TV forecast for Byberry, Haddonfield, Linwood, Dover, Mt. Airy, Newtown, Easton, and more? We have them for you.

Plus, you can get these same forecasts on NBC10.com and the NBC10 Weather App.

A TEN DAY FORECAST? ARE YOU KIDDING?
No, we’re not kidding, and we do not do it just to be first, or to have something to promote. As I mentioned earlier, the science of weather forecasting has come a long way in recent decades. NBC10 was the first to debut a 7-day forecast in 2002. When we did it, we tested it privately for a year to prove we could do it, having some accuracy (in science, it’s known as “skill”) all the way out to day 7. Of course, we’re more accurate for day 3 overall than day 7, and you should keep that in mind.

Now, computer models and detailed data have improved enough to support a 10-day forecast. Our “skill” out to day 10 is about as good as it was to day 7 was when we introduced the 7-day forecast. We don’t claim we’re going to nail it to the exact degree, but you can be pretty confident day 10 will be  within 5 degrees of our forecast, one way or the other. Our sister NBC Owned TV stations have also done independent research that showed similar skill out to 10 days. You can ignore it if you want, but it’ll be out there if you’re interested.

THESE ARE DIFFERENT THAN YOUR COMPUTER OR PHONE FORECAST APPS
It’s not commonly known, but that “zip code forecast” you might get on your phone likely comes straight from a computer, with NO human forecaster involved. While computer models are good, they have flaws, including “biases” to be either too cold or too warm regularly. If a human was involved, they could figure that out and adjust for it. But no company has the manpower to make separate forecasts for hundreds of zip codes in our area. This is why many of your phone apps were so bad (until now).

What we do is take the computer outputs and adjust them as needed. This, in itself takes us hours every day to do. But we think it’s worth it. I want to go on TV and tell you that this is MY forecast, not something straight out of a computer model that may be way off because some bad data got entered into it.

We have been working on creating this new and true Neighborhood Weather for months, and have been eager to put it on-air. But we wanted to get the “bugs” out first. This effort has been led by our new, brilliant weather producer, David Parkinson, with input from me, Sheena, and Bill along the way.

We’re excited about the chance to lead the Philadelphia TV market in a new way that reflects the current state of the science. We’ve been doing that since the mid-90s with the cutting-edge Earthwatch computer system. And we will continue to look for ways to bring you the latest technology (and not just fancy graphics) for years to come. Science always evolves and improves. Sometimes it takes a while to get used to. But new technology often is. And it’s often worth it.

Going forward, we’re going to continue to make a lot of investments in weather at NBC10 because we know how important it is to have an accurate, meaningful and specific forecast for you and your family. Technology will continue to get better and better, and we’re excited to share the future with you.



Photo Credit: NBC10.com ]]>
<![CDATA[NBC10 First Alert Neighborhood Forecast: Sunny & Beautiful]]> Sat, 16 Apr 2016 07:12:09 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/bill_weekend_launch_1200x675_667461699771.jpg Meteorologist Bill Henley has your Saturday First Alert Neighborhood Forecast full of sunshine and warm temperatures.]]> <![CDATA[Hurricane: What's Up With Climate Change Consensus?]]> Wed, 13 Apr 2016 16:41:23 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/climate+change.JPG

"CONSENSUS" - DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ASK

If you have a brain tumor, do you really care about your podiatrist’s opinion on it? So, why is it at all important what non climate scientists think about climate change? You might say: "It isn’t brain surgery." But in a way it is. Climate change is an extremely complex subject, covering several areas of science (climatology, meteorology, geology, paleo-climatology, atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, thermodynamics-and more).

If you ask the "brain surgeons of climate change," the level of agreement is extremely high. They agree that 1) the earth has warmed and will continue to warm, and 2) human activity is the main cause of the warming. At least six different studies have found that agreement level of 90 percent to 100 percent. More than one study found the rate to be 97 percent. The studies used different methods to get the final numbers, but one thing is common: They surveyed climate scientists -- that’s all. No meteorologists, physicists, chemists or other non-specialists were included.

LESS "EXPERT": LESS CONSENSUS

Here’s what fascinates me: While the most published climate scientists had 97 percent agreement, the percentage went down for less published climate scientists.

 

The percentage was even lower for non-published scientists, and the lowest consensus was for the general public (58 percent):

WHY SO LITTLE PUBLIC CONSENSUS?

This is clear: The "anti-climate change" movement has succeeded in placing doubt within the general population. While those agreeing with the consensus have increased a lot in the past year, the gap is still very wide. I have a few theories as to why this gap exists:

1. "Doubt is our product."

A cigarette executive described the reasons behind the quote in a document revealed in a lawsuit against the industry.

There are some interesting quotes from that document that seem awfully familiar, aside from "Doubt is our product." Like "It is also the means of establishing a controversy." and "It is essential that we ascertain which type of anti-smoking information has most affected the smoking public."

So, if I was on the "non-consensus" side of the climate change issue, I would see what statistics or graphics have had the most impact, and then attack them. How about the "Hockey Stick" from Michael Mann and others? And the easy to remember 97% would need to be attacked, too.

2. When in doubt, pick the least threatening option.

This is a problem that the National Hurricane Center has had to deal with. If they issue a Hurricane Warning for a stretch of coastline, and a private weather service says the hurricane will NOT hit that area, many people choose to believe the "miss" forecast, so they won’t have to take action. This is a real concern, and real examples have occurred (and even discussed at conferences).

3. "If Al Gore is for it, then I have to be against it."

The Climate Change issue used to have bi-partisan support. That is, until the movie "An Inconvenient Truth" came out. It has gotten more and more political since then.

4. "Equal Time"

In journalism, we’ve been taught to give "equal time" to both sides of an issue. Climate scientists often cringe when a local or national TV program tries to show balance. But is that the right thing to do? As the late Patrick Moynihan once said, "You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts." This is sometimes called "false balance." This is especially true when one side is represented by a climate scientist, and the other by a non-scientist who is good on TV. The climate scientists are not commonly trained in media debates. They are trained to talk about percentages and are careful making sweeping, general statements. The non-scientist has no such restrictions, and is free to state categorical "facts" with a certainty and volume that comes across convincingly. And the loudest voice often wins on TV.

Here’s an interesting article on the subject.
   

"THE BRAIN SURGEONS HAVE SPOKEN"

Even though I’ve been a meteorologist for 40-plus years, and have a Bachelor of Science degree to go with it, I still don’t consider myself to be an expert on climate change. I leave the basics to the experts. When in doubt, Google the name of the people you see on a TV or internet "debate" and see what their backgrounds are. That will tell you whether they’re worth listening to.

As for what to do about the changing climate, that’s a completely different issue. It may be that no one is an expert on that one.



Photo Credit: Getty Images
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<![CDATA[Snow Showers, Then Bitter Cold in April ]]> Sun, 10 Apr 2016 13:06:13 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Spring-Snow1.jpg

It may be spring but we're still dealing with winter weather. A wintry mix moved in Saturday, bringing rain and snow through the area. After the mix moved out, bitter cold temperatures remained.

[[375161341, C]]

A clipper moved into the region with mostly wet snow Saturday morning into the afternoon. Computer models were pretty consistent over the past several days showing this feature, with temperatures remaining slightly above freezing through most of the day as the snow fell.

[[375152461, C]]

Some of the snow stuck to pavement farther N&W of Philadelphia, in the Lehigh Valley or Poconos since temperatures were around freezing.

Most of the snow melted on paved surfaces though there was some accumulation on grassy surfaces. Up to 2 inches of snow fell in Chester County while 2.5 inches of snow fell in parts of Delaware County.

Areas N&W of Philadelphia saw wet snow or a rain/snow mix at times. The Philadelphia area saw a fluctuation of rain and snow, and NJ and DE saw a snow and rain mix as well.

[[375108121, C,650,472]]

The wintry mix moved out Saturday evening but the cold temperatures remained. Temperatures are dropping into the 20s and a Freeze Warning went into effect for the region 8 p.m. Saturday and will last until 10 a.m. Sunday. During the Freeze Warning below freezing temperatures will kill sensitive vegetation that's left unprotected. Due to the Freeze Warning, a Code Blue went into effect in Philadelphia at 6 p.m. Saturday and will last until Monday at 6 a.m. Officials urge anyone who sees a person in need of shelter to call Project HOME at 215-232-1984.

Sunday morning will be sunny but very cold. Temperatures will rise to around 50 degrees by the afternoon which is still below the average temperature for this time of year(normal is 62). Clouds will also increase during the day. There's also a chance for more rain Sunday overnight into Monday morning.

PHILLIES HOME OPENER

We finally start warming up for opening day on Monday! Highs will be around 60, mix of sun and clouds, and there’s a chance we could see a passing shower. It would be ahead of our next cold front set to move through on Tuesday, which will be the day we see the most rain.

[[375141671, C]]



Photo Credit: Sara Smith
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<![CDATA[Need Proof of How Cold It Is, Check Out This Frozen Fountain]]> Wed, 06 Apr 2016 09:10:29 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000014680850_1200x675_659950659687.jpg It's April but a frozen fountain in Longport, Atlantic County shows just how cold it has been. Lang's Garden Center had to be temporarily taken inside.]]> <![CDATA[Is That Snow in the Poconos?]]> Mon, 04 Apr 2016 08:19:14 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000014644665_1200x675_658354243559.jpg Monday marks the 101st anniversary of 19 inches of snow in Philadelphia, and although we aren't seeing that much snow, some places in the region would get some.]]> <![CDATA[High Winds Leave Thousands in the Dark]]> Sun, 03 Apr 2016 23:42:47 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Tree+on+Wires.JPG

A storm system packing heavy wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph slammed the area overnight leading to thousands of people being left in the dark.

Before sunrise Sunday more than 50,000 customers were without power across the tri-state area as heavy winds and storms knocked down trees and wires from Delaware to New Jersey.

Bucks County, Pennsylvania seemed to get the worst of it as nearly 32,000 customers had no power at one point. The Bucks outages were part of the about 45,000 PECO customers without power. Another 4,000-plus PPL Electric customers -- most in Lehigh and Northampton counties -- lost power though most had it back by late morning.

Over in New Jersey, more than 4,000 PSE&G customers had no power as of 3 p.m. – most in North Jersey – and more than 2,000 AC Electric customers lost power with most in Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties.

Delaware’s Delmarva Power reported more than 12,000 outages with more than half in New Castle County.

By late Sunday night power was restored to most homes across the area.



Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[Powerful Winds Slam Region]]> Sun, 03 Apr 2016 23:44:10 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Pendel+Tree+down.jpg

Storms with heavy wind and rain slammed the area while many people slept overnight. Some snow even popped up in Philadelphia and surrounding areas Sunday morning as powerful winds continued to cause power problems.

A High Wind Warning was reduced to a Wind Advisory that was in effect until 4 p.m. Sunday for the Philadelphia region, South Jersey, the north and west suburbs, the Lehigh Valley and Delaware. Winds increased rapidly overnight with gusts up to 60 mph, said the National Weather Service.

“These are damaging winds,” said NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Sheena Parveen. “The type we see in severe storms.”

The thunderstorms that occurred overnight were off the coast before sunrise Sunday but snow showers and snow squalls continued to pop up north and west, said NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Michelle Grossman. A couple inches of snow fell in the highest elevations (Poconos) in the heavier squalls. Otherwise, Sunday was cold with temperatures in the low 40s.

The strong winds -- which continued into midday -- downed power lines leaving at one point more than 50,000 customers in the dark. They also caused damage to buildings -- including a trailer that toppled in Dennisville, New Jersey -- and lead to hazardous driving conditions especially on bridges and elevated roadways.

The nasty weather also caused the organizers of Get Your Rear in gear Philadelphia to cancel the "region's largest colon cancer run" that was set to take place in Farimount Park Sunday morning.

The winds diminished quickly late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.



Photo Credit: @ericfliegelman
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<![CDATA[Warm, Warmer, Warmest...]]> Tue, 22 Mar 2016 23:57:34 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Schuylkill+River+Banks+Boardwalk+Generic+Philly+Skyline+Generic.jpg

A FULL YEAR OF WARMTH

We will end March 2016 shortly, and it is assured to be one of the warmest ones in the recorded history of Philadelphia. It also means that we will have gone an ENTIRE YEAR with every month having above normal temperatures. Here are the numbers (March is unofficial, of course)

April 2015 +1.4 degrees
May +6.2
June +1.5
July +1.1
August +2.4
September +5.4
October +1.0
November +5.6
December +13.7
January 2016 +1.2
February +2.9
March +7.5

As you can see, five out of those 12 months were exceptionally warm (more than 5 degrees above normal). This is a truly remarkable stretch.

WARMEST WORLDWIDE, TOO

It has been widely reported that 2015 was the warmest on record globally (by a big amount). But 2016 is starting so much warmer than 2015 that it almost seems impossible. Here is the amazing graphic:
[[373128031, C]]
Why has it been so hot? You may have heard that it’s because of the record El Nino in the Pacific. But that’s only one factor-a big factor, but not the whole story. Take a look at global yearly temperatures with El Nino and La Nina (the opposite of El Nino) highlighted.
[[373128771, C]]
The previous record El Nino was 1997-98, which was the first orange spike of close to 1 degree above average. The latest El Nino is almost exactly as strong as that one, so why is it so much warmer? Yes, that’s called global warming, and it makes today’s El Nino year warmer than previous El Nino years. And look at the blue lines in recent years. The latest La Nina years are clearly warmer than previous ones. When we separate the years like this, it clearly shows the overall warming of the earth has continued-it’s the El Nino/La Nina years that make it look more stable.

THE WARMEST OF THE WARM

So, we know the earth in 2015 has had its warmest year in the modern record (140+ years). February 2016 has continued the record warmest trend, as seen below. And the biggest warming trend occurred in the Arctic, Alaska, Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia, among others. This is very similar to what computer models predicted decades ago.
[[373129051, C]]
If it was that warm in the Arctic, there should have been a record (or near record) ice melt. We are indeed close to record low levels.
[[373129501, C]]

MORE AGREEING ON THREAT OF GLOBAL WARMING

There has been so much warming, and so many examples of extremes in weather (Super typhoons, record flooding, etc.) that more and more people are noticing. The latest Gallop survey this month showed that 64% of Americans say they are worried “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about climate change. This is the highest number since 2008. Just in the past year, the percentage of Americans who attribute climate change largely to human activity has risen from 55% to 65%.

More warmth in the future will lead to more records, and that will lead to even higher percentages of those worried about climate change. The best evidence is to see it happening right in front of your eyes. The Super El Nino has made it even more obvious.

Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz
Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia



Photo Credit: NBC10.com - Dan Stamm
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<![CDATA[Light Spring Snow Falls in Parts of Region]]> Mon, 21 Mar 2016 08:58:34 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000014457536_1200x675_648973891974.jpg A light spring snow fell in parts of our region early Monday, but it didn't seem to cause too many issues in most of the area. NBC10's Matt DeLucia is in Villanova, where snow landed on cars and grassy areas, but didn't make the roads anything more than a little wet.]]> <![CDATA[Spring Begins With Light Snow]]> Mon, 21 Mar 2016 05:11:02 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/snow-generic.jpg

The first day of spring brought a bit of winter weather to our area. A mixture of rain and light snow is moving through our region.

A winter weather advisory was issued Sunday for Atlantic and Burlington counties.The advisory went into effect at 7 p.m. Sunday and will last until 6 a.m. Monday.

Conditions were dry Sunday morning. Then light snow began to fall in the Philly area late Sunday afternoon. Rain also began to fall across the region but changed over to light snow Sunday night.

We won't see much accumulation from the system. However, with the timing conditions are more favorable for snow sticking on roads meaning we could see some slushy, slick spots during the Monday morning rush.

TIMING

8 p.m. to 2 a.m. - Mixture of rain and snow, heaviest in South Jersey

2 a.m. to 7 a.m. - Snow ends west to east

7 a.m. to 9 a.m. - Snow ends in South Jersey

EXPECTED TOTALS

South Jersey - 2 to 4 inches

Philadelphia, North and West suburbs - 1 to 2 inches

Lehigh Valley, Poconos - Coating to an inch

Cold air will continue through the beginning of the week, but a big warm-up is coming midweek.



Photo Credit: Getty Images]]>
<![CDATA[Preparing for Incoming Snow Storm]]> Fri, 18 Mar 2016 20:02:41 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/WCAU_000000014433754_1200x675_647658563630.jpg After a streak of warm weather, the Philadelphia area can expect some snow coming in late this weekend. NBC10's Cydney Long shows us how local stores and residents are preparing.]]> <![CDATA[Sheena's Blog: What's Up With Weekend Snow?]]> Sat, 19 Mar 2016 01:05:43 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/209*120/Sheena+Snow+Map+Friday+Midday.JPG

A cold air mass will move down from Canada for the weekend.  At the same time, a storm system approaches from the South.  Computer models seem to be having a better handle on this, and will continue to do so as the storm organizes more before it heads up the East coast.

More model updates throughout the weekend will give a clearer picture on the timing and precipitation type, as well as snow amounts (yes: we expect accumulating snow through part of the area).  As of now, snow could move in as early as Sunday morning for part of the area, and through the afternoon and night.

Timeline

Saturday: mostly sunny – partly cloudy. Highs around 47 degrees

Saturday night: Lows around freezing with the storm approaching

Sunday: Could see snow by the morning, certainly by noon. Timing may change though as we get closer. Cold enough for all snow north and west, mix to snow in Philadelphia, then rain to snow or a mix in New Jersey and Delaware.

Sunday night: Snow continuing, with a better chance for any precipitation to change to snow in New Jersey and Delaware. Tapering off overnight as of now. . . Temps below freezing overnight.

Monday morning: Icy spots on roads, some roads could still be snow-covered from Sunday night. Depending on the timing of the storm, some snow could still be falling early Monday morning. TBD.

How Much Could Fall?

Accumulations will be higher north and west maybe a few inches or more (as of now), with less as you go farther south and east because of higher rain chances and a mix. But of course if the timing changes, then that would directly impact snow totals. So this will have to be watched very closely.

  • North & West: 3-5 inches
  • I-95 corridor: 1-3 inches
  • South & East: Less than an inch

Snow should melt at the start, but then as temperatures drop below freezing later Sunday night, snow will stick to roads. Expect more of a “wet” snow with higher water content.



Photo Credit: NBC10]]>
<![CDATA[Sunday Spring Snowstorm]]> Fri, 18 Mar 2016 07:27:50 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/203*120/Generic+Snow+Generic+Road+Snow+Road+Generic.JPG

Does history repeat itself in weather? YES!

The year was 2006, and we had a rather warm and snow-free January. There were 5 days with temperatures above 60. Then February started unseasonably warm, with 60s on the 3rd and 4th. But merely a week later, a foot of snow had fallen in Philadelphia.

The similarity with the current pattern goes beyond those numbers. Researchers are now able to compare different weather patterns in detail to see which ones the current situation looks like. They’re called “Analogs”. One of the analogs to the current pattern is February 2006. Other analogs show smaller snow amounts in Philadelphia with more N&W of the city. They even can create maps that show probabilities of snow amounts of 4” or more based on an average of the top analogs. In this case:

That’s about an 80% chance of 4”+ in the Poconos; 60% in most other areas N&W of Phila, ranging down to less than 30% at the Jersey Shore. This is similar to my latest thinking on which areas are likely to see the most snow from the storm. So we now have history “on-board”, along with the most reliable computer models.

The latest models:

The “best of the best”, as we’ve mentioned many times before, is the Ensemble average of the European model. It’s run 51 times with slightly different initial conditions, and scores the highest overall. Here are the maps for Sunday 8am and Monday 8am:

A couple of things stand out to me here. First, the track is pretty close to the East Coast-this storm clearly is NOT moving out to sea. And second, that’s a pretty intense storm by Monday morning when you consider that it’s the average of 51 solutions!

The GFS model from the U.S. has a weaker track farther east, while the Canadian model has an intense, closer track to the coast, suggesting more rain than snow. So the European is the compromise track, but is clearly stronger and snowier than other models.

Factors to consider:

1. It takes a temperature below 30 and/or rather heavy snow to stick on roads during the daytime hours this late in the season. So there could be a lot of melting during the day, which would cut down snow totals.

2. While the atmosphere overall will be cold enough for snow, the layer right near the ground may be warm enough to melt snow into rain on the way down during the day. That is, if the snow is light. As snow gets heavier, a light rain can change to a heavy snow in minutes.

3. While much of the snow could melt on roads in some areas, it would still stick to trees and power lines. With a “wet” snow like this, it can weigh a lot. If enough snow falls, tree limbs can start coming down, leading to power outages. This will need to be watched closely.



Photo Credit: NBC10
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<![CDATA[Chance of Snow on the First Day of Spring ]]> Wed, 16 Mar 2016 05:19:26 -0400 http://media.nbcphiladelphia.com/images/213*120/Snow-Flurries-Generic.jpg

“SO YOU’RE TELLING ME THERE’S A CHANCE”

No, it’s not like that famous quote from the ridiculously stupid yet funny movie: “Dumb and Dumber." Jim Carrey’s character is told he has a “one in a million” chance to get the girl. And that’s enough to thrill him that “there’s a chance." Well, a meteorologist needs a bit more confidence to predict snow in the 2nd half of March-less than a week after back-to-back record 80+ degree days.

SPRING SNOWS IN PHILADELPHIA

Spring officially begins Sunday, March 20th, and that’s the day with the best chance of seeing snow (maybe overnight into the 21st as well). You may be surprised not only how often it has snowed after that date, but how much has fallen. Even on that very date.

March 20, 1958 saw not only the biggest single snowfall I’ve ever seen in our area (up to 50”!), but the biggest snowfall contrast from the coast (a mere 2-3” at some shore areas) to areas N&W of Phila. (30”+). Here is the weather map and snowfall map for that storm: 

[[372183492, C]]

[[372183532, C]]

And this was the result in the area of the 50”, the Morgantown exit of the PA Turnpike, where helicopters had to rescue many who were stranded:

[[372183602, C]]

NOW THAT I HAVE YOUR ATTENTION

Of course, I am NOT predicting a repeat of that freakish storm. I am saying that not only can it snow in late March-it can stick if conditions are right. There’s a lot of moisture available in spring, so if it’s cold enough, snow can pile up quickly. Most times, though, it just melts as it falls, or shortly after it stops.

We have seen measurable snows as late as April 27th (1967), and even fairly big snows up to April 9th (7” in 1917). And, in April, 1915, we actually got 19.4” officially IN PHILADELPHIA!

So, what are our chances this spring?

“WHAT DOES THE EURO SHOW?”

That’s the main question I have trained many of my viewers and readers to ask whenever there’s a chance of a coastal storm 3-10 days out. As we’ve shown many times, the European is simply the best overall model in the world, has been for more than 20 years, and will continue to be the best indefinitely. It is not perfect and never will be, but:
1)    It cannot be ignored – same as Glenn Close in “Fatal Attraction”
2)    The ensembles of the EURO are even better than the EURO itself

So let’s start with the EURO:
Here are the forecast maps for Sunday 8am and Monday 8am…

[[372183692, C]]

[[372183722, C]]

Unfortunately, the European folks are quite stingy with the maps they provide for free: only every 24 hours, so we’re missing the crucial Sunday evening map to see how far offshore the storm tracks. But the point is that there is a storm, and that it is basically cold enough to snow, and the storm tracks off the coast, keeping the cold air in place. These are minimum requirements for such a storm to bring snow in spring.

The ensemble members (the model is run 51 times with slight changes in initial conditions) strongly agree with this basic analysis.

ANY OTHERS IN AGREEMENT?

The ensembles of the Canadian Model (another one that beats the U.S. GFS model overall) are in the same area:

[[372183772, C]]

The tiny red numbers are centers of the LOW pressure at 2 a.m. Monday from the various ensemble members. That’s an impressive “grouping” just off the coast more than 5 days in advance. The average position is in a favorable place for at least a close call of snow around here.

THE BOTTOM LINE

I didn’t bother to mention the U.S. model, which was recently upgraded. It’s not that far off the solutions shown above, but this far out, it has a pretty bad track record.

The European Model has also just been upgraded, with much higher resolution, and the forecasting world is pretty excited about seeing how it works out. This may be the first test of a Nor’easter. It did very accurately predict the monstrous rain amounts in Louisiana and Texas that led to the recent record flooding.

We’re still many days away from any potential snow. And remember, snow at this time of year can melt quickly. So don’t go canceling any plans at this point. But this is not just a “whim," and it’s not “hyping” to put snow in the 7-day forecast for late Sunday and Sunday night for at least part of our area. More updates are coming this week. Stay tuned.
 


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