Sizing up the Eagles' Week 3 showdown with the Steelers, a game that will tell us a heck of a lot more about the Birds than the first two.
When the Eagles have the ball
Carson Wentz will likely face challenges he didn't see in Weeks 1 and 2, most notably having to play from behind. The largest deficit Wentz has faced thus far was four points in Chicago, so he hasn't been in a position yet where the opponent has made the Eagles one-dimensional and Wentz has to throw.
That figures to change this Sunday. The Steelers have a high-powered offense capable of jumping out to a two-score lead, and if it gets to that point Wentz is going to have to show he can complete passes when everyone knows passes are coming.
The Eagles' formula the first two weeks involved throwing a lot in the first half and running a lot in the second half. That's obviously easier to do when you're ahead and trying to drain clock. It's not like the Eagles will abandon the run immediately if they fall down 14-3, but the Steelers have a strong run defense that may force them to pass.
The Steelers' defense isn't as ferocious as it was when James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu were in their primes, but this unit has improved the last few years, specifically in the front seven. Ryan Shazier and Lawrence Timmons are athletic, skilled inside linebackers who can rush the passer, defend the run and play adequately in coverage. Pittsburgh, though, has just one sack and three QB hits through two games and is looking for more from outside linebackers Jarvis Jones and Arthur Moats.
Up front, the defensive line of Cameron Heyward, Javon Hargrave and Stephon Tuitt hasn't generated much pressure yet. With Lane Johnson around for this game, the Eagles' offensive line has a chance to keep clean Wentz cleaner than it figures to in the weeks to come.
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The Steelers have two solid but unspectacular starting corners in veteran William Gay and Ross Cockrell. Cockrell (and the weather) last week held A.J. Green to two catches for 39 yards. Strong safety Robert Golden has also played well, allowing just 45 receiving yards on seven targets.
Look for the Eagles to match Jordan Matthews up against defensive back Sean Davis, who was taken in the second round of this year's draft and plays both safety and nickelback for the Steelers. Davis has had a rough first two weeks in the NFL, allowing 10 catches on 12 targets for 142 yards.
Doug Pederson showed last Monday night that his game plan will change based on his opponents' strengths and weaknesses. What a departure from the Chip Kelly era. Pederson knew the Bears were thin on capable corners and so he stretched them out with five wide receivers on the opening drive and employed a no-huddle offense to prevent the Bears from substituting. The Steelers obviously saw that and will be prepared for it. It was encouraging on Monday night that after that first drive, Pederson went to a more conventional offense, knowing Chicago was ready to make adjustments of its own. Save for a few questionable jet sweeps, Pederson has called two very good games.
The Eagles' run game hasn't taken off yet, with both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles averaging a yard fewer per carry than their career averages. The best-case scenario for the Eagles in this one is they get the ground game going on the first drive to set up the play-action for Wentz — who has carried out fakes extremely well — and to keep the Steelers' pass rush honest.
The worst-case scenario is Pittsburgh, as mentioned above, builds an early, two-score lead. Wentz has shown a lot so far but hasn't had the opportunity to prove he can mount a comeback against an elite team.
When the Steelers have the ball
The Eagles draw the Steelers in the final game of Le'Veon Bell's suspension, but while Bell is among the game's most dynamic skill players, his replacement isn't too shabby. Veteran DeAngelo Williams, the oldest running back in the NFL at 33, has powered, shifted and cut his way to 303 scrimmage yards through two weeks.
Williams is one of the most patient backs in the NFL. He'll get the ball and take a split second to read the gaps and find a hole. If the Eagles over-pursue in the run game, Williams will gouge them for chunks of yardage.
He's carried the ball a ton in the first two weeks, rushing 26 times for 143 yards in the opener and 32 times for 94 yards in Week 2. Game flow dictated both workloads — in Week 1 the Steelers were crushing the Redskins and trying to drain clock; in Week 2 it was rainy at Heinz Field against the Bengals and Pittsburgh led most of the game.
The Steelers' passing game obviously centers around Antonio Brown, who is going to go down as the second-best receiver of all-time if he keeps this up. Brown's receptions and receiving yards have increased each of the last three seasons, from 110 for 1,499 to 129 for 1,698 to 136 for 1,834. His route-running and shiftiness is unparalleled and it's how a 5-foot-10 receiver who didn't run a 4.3 has become the biggest game-breaker in the league.
It helps, of course, to have one of best quarterbacks ever throwing him the ball. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't truly gotten as much credit as he deserves playing in an era with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. But Roethlisberger makes every throw, he navigates the pocket as well as anyone and is almost impossible to bring down.
Roethlisberger connected often with Brown in Week 1 at Washington, targeting him 11 times. Brown had eight catches for 126 yards and two touchdowns. They weren't as in sync against the Bengals, who are plenty familiar with Brown. He was targeted 11 more times but caught just four passes for 39 yards. The Bengals are one of the few teams that has held Brown somewhat in check the last few years. Don't expect to see that happen to Brown two weeks in a row.
Outside of Brown and Williams, the Steelers' offense doesn't have as many weapons as it once did. Martavis Bryant, an Alshon Jeffery-like talent, is suspended for the season. Longtime tight end Heath Miller retired.
Pittsburgh's new starting tight end, Jesse James, has been targeted 12 times through two games and caught a touchdown last Sunday. He's a massive target for Big Ben at 6-foot-7. The Steelers brought in speedy, athletic tight end Ladarius Green in free agency but he's out until at least Week 7 with an ankle injury and recurring headaches.
Wide receiver Markus Wheaton has also missed time, sitting the first two games with a shoulder injury. He could be back for this one. The Steelers could use his presence with inexperienced wideouts Sammie Coates (outside) and Eli Rogers (slot) starting. Rogers showed some promise in Week 1 with six grabs for 59 yards and a TD.
This is going to be an extremely challenging matchup for the Eagles' secondary. You don't cover Brown with one guy, or at least you'd be foolish to. Defending Brown often requires having a cornerback press him at the line of scrimmage and a safety over the top. That's the best way to prevent Brown from making a quick cut to get open or keep him from double-moving his way to the inch or two of space he needs to haul in a deep pass. The Bengals showed last week that the Steelers' offense can be calmed down when ample attention is placed on Brown.
The Eagles' defense has excelled in nearly every way through two weeks — it has pressured the quarterback, held onto interceptions (except Ron Brooks) and made teams one-dimensional.
Brandon Graham had a great game off the edge against the Bears, a week after Connor Barwin had a sack. Fletcher Cox has yet to make a big impact and, with that paycheck, needs to in a game like this.
The Steelers' offensive line will be better than the Bears' was. Center Maurkice Pouncey and right guard David DeCastro are among the best at their positions. Left guard Ramon Foster and right tackle Marcus Gilbert have each carried their strong 2015 play into 2016.
Former Eagle Alejandro Villanueva, also a former Army Ranger, is the weak link at left tackle. He allowed 25 QB hurries and seven sacks last season, and according to Pro Football Focus has already allowed eight hurries and two sacks this season.
Special teams
Donnie Jones is consistently awesome, but the confidence that comes with having such a big leg is one reason Eddie Royal was even in position to return a punt for a touchdown against the Eagles in Week 2. The Eagles absolutely cannot punt the ball anywhere near Brown this Sunday.
In the kicking game, Caleb Sturgis is healthy after experiencing cramps in Week 2. Sturgis missed an extra point Monday night after getting hurt, and the way he was feeling had to have played a role in Doug Pederson's decision to go for it on fourth down at the Bears' 1-yard line.
Kicker Chris Boswell has been solid in 14 games with the Steelers dating back to last season, making 31 of 34 field goals and 34 of 35 extra points.
Prediction
I foresee the Eagles have trouble covering Brown, who scores an early TD, before selling out against him and opening up running lanes for Williams.
Even if Wentz leads the Eagles to points on their opening drive for a third straight game, I expect him to struggle unless the offensive line plays lights out (looking at you, Jason Kelce).
Predicting Wentz throws his first interception and the Eagles lose to a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Steelers 27, Eagles 17
