Eagles-Packers Scouting Report: Don't Count Out GB After 1 Bad Month

Eagles vs. Packers
Monday, 8:30 p.m. on ESPN
Eagles favored by 4; over/under 47.5

Sizing up the Eagles' Week 12 matchup against the struggling Packers.

Must-win game
If the Eagles lose this game, their road to the playoffs will go from difficult to extremely unlikely. 

The Eagles' only real chance of making it would be as a wild-card team, but they're currently behind both the Giants and Redskins for those final two spots, lost to both of those teams and at 3-5 have the worst conference record of any NFC team in the hunt.

If they lose to the Packers, the Eagles would be 5-6 overall and 3-6 against the NFC. At that point, they'd obviously need to win out, but they'd also need a lot else to happen.

P.O.'d Packers defense
The Packers will enter this game angry about how they've played lately and been written off. Green Bay's injury-ravaged defense has been abysmal the last four games, allowing an average of 38.3 points. Unsurprisingly, all were losses.

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With starting cornerbacks Sam Shields and Damarious Randall out with injuries, LB Clay Matthews banged up and inside linebackers Blake Martinez and Jake Ryan hurt, Green Bay has been victimized in every way.

It looks like Ryan will return Monday, which should help Green Bay's run defense. Randall is looking more like a game-time decision.

They need both players active and ready to contribute.

Matt Ryan threw for 288 yards with three TDs and no interceptions against the Packers in Week 8. The next Sunday, Green Bay allowed a pair of rushing TDs to Frank Gore and kickoff returns of 91 and 60 yards. The Packers followed that up by allowing 305 passing yards and four TDs through the air to the Titans, who also rushed for 154 yards and a TD. And then last Sunday night in Washington, the Packers allowed 375 yards and three TDs to Kirk Cousins and were gashed on the ground to the tune of 151 yards and three TDs from Rob Kelley.

This is a defense struggling in every way, one the Eagles must take advantage of. There's still a lot missing on Green Bay's defense, especially when Matthews and Julius Peppers are failing to generate pressure.

Rodgers still Rodgers
The strength of the Packers is their offensive line, which has bought Aaron Rodgers plenty of time in the pocket even as the losses have piled up. Green Bay's offensive line has been by far the best in the NFL in pass protection, according to Pro Football Focus, with a grade 20 points higher than the next-best team.

Per PFF, Rodgers has been kept clean on 333 of his 463 dropbacks. That 71.9 percent rate is sixth-best in the NFL, a spot behind Carson Wentz (72.2 percent). 

The problem is, even though Rodgers has had time to go through his progressions, the Green Bay offense is not what it once was. 

Jordy Nelson has nine touchdowns through 10 games, but he hasn't shown the same downfield explosiveness he did before tearing his ACL in the summer of 2015. Nelson is still an elite red-zone threat, though, because of his size, hands and knowledge of where Rodgers wants him to be when a play is extended.

In lieu of going deep, the Packers lately have thrown a lot of short passes to Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery. All three can make you miss in space, but Cobb in particular seems to have lost his quickness, as he's dealt with nagging injuries. He's averaging 10.8 yards per catch after posting a career-low 10.5 last year.

Tight end Jared Cook returned from a lengthy injury absence last Sunday night and had a typical Jared Cook game, flashing signs of excellence and ineptitude. Cook caught six passes for 105 yards and a TD, but he also dropped a TD and committed the fumble which sealed Washington's win.

Green Bay's running game has been poor all season. Eddie Lacy is out, and longtime backup James Starks missed four games with a knee injury. Starks has played the last two games but managed just 58 yards on 16 carries. He did have a 31-yard catch-and-run TD against the 'Skins.

Through it all, Rodgers is still Rodgers. He's completed 63 percent of his passes, averaged 276 passing yards and 26 rushing yards. He's thrown 25 TDs, rushed for three and thrown seven interceptions. His 96.0 QB rating is just the eighth-best of his career because he's thrown more picks than usual.

Don't sleep on Green Bay in this one. The Packers are oozing "nobody believes in us" motivation.

Get-right game for Wentz
Wentz's numbers have fallen off dramatically from where they were the first five weeks, but he was better than the stats indicated in Seattle. He obviously would have benefited from that 57-yard Zach Ertz touchdown had Nelson Agholor not committed a mind-numbing penalty.

Against the Packers, Wentz has a chance to get himself back on track. Quarterbacks have a 105.5 rating vs. Green Bay, second-highest in the NFL, ahead of only Detroit (108.5).

The Packers have 24 sacks but only 10 takeaways. The only NFC team with fewer takeaways is the Bears. (The Eagles, meanwhile, have 26 sacks and 16 takeaways.)

With the Packers' secondary and linebacking corps depleted, tight ends have hurt them of late. In the last three games alone, they've allowed 22 catches for 295 yards and two TDs to tight ends.

Ertz should be ready to eat.

Eagles' secondary vs. Packers receivers
The Packers' strengths — QB, O-line, pass-catchers — could make this a tough game for the Eagles. The O-line could render the Eagles' pass rush even less effective than it's been lately, and the rapport Rodgers has with his receivers will likely make it a long day for the Eagles' mediocre cornerbacks.

Will Nolan Carroll or Jalen Mills be able to stay with Nelson on jumpballs? Will the quick-twitch ability of Cobb, Adams or Montgomery be too much to handle for a CB group that has missed plenty of tackles?

Prediction
The best way for the Eagles to win this game would be following the formula against Atlanta of running a lot and controlling the ball. Problem is, Ryan Mathews (out, knee) and Darren Sproles (rib) are banged up, so that responsibility could fall on Wendell Smallwood, who has had some nice games in his rookie year.

Because the Packers have more offense than the Eagles but no defense, this should be a well-contested shootout. The Eagles' highest-scoring game of the year was the 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas and this should be an even higher total.

My instinct here is to take Green Bay. When a team hits rock bottom the way the Packers apparently have on defense, it usually does everything in its power during the week of practice to correct that issue. Rarely in the NFL do teams fail to adjust and get burnt the same exact way every week.

Many analysts locally and nationally see Green Bay in a free fall and are taking the Eagles. But the Packers are every bit as desperate for a win as are the Eagles, and more importantly have an offense that can pile up points and win a game by itself. 

I know the Eagles' defense has been much better at home and generated a lot of pressure on quarterbacks, but I foresee No. 12 working his magic on Monday night, even if doesn't lead to a season revival for the Pack.

Packers 34, Eagles 27

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