Eagles-Giants Scouting Report: Birds D-line Could Win This Game

Eagles at Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. on FOX
Giants favored by 2.5; over/under 42.5

The frustrating loss last week in Dallas made the Eagles' road to a division title significantly harder, if not impossible. They can still make the playoffs as a wild-card team if they have a strong second half of the season, but even if the division's out of reach, they cannot afford to lose a third straight NFC East game.

At 4-3, the Eagles are tied with the Packers and Giants. The Redskins are 4-3-1. The Lions are 4-4 but have the tiebreaker over the Eagles. It's time to start creating some distance.

The Eagles have a prime opportunity to do just that when they take on the Giants Sunday at 1 p.m. at the Meadowlands.

The Eagles have truly had the Giants' number lately, winning four meetings in a row and 12 of the last 15. At the Meadowlands, the Eagles are 7-1 since 2008.

When the Eagles have the ball
It's been nearly a month since the Eagles' offense has clicked. After having a strong second half in Detroit, the Birds barely had the ball in Washington, relied on their defense and special teams against the Vikings, then had just an OK night in Dallas. 

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It was clear against the Cowboys that Dallas just has many more offensive weapons, and if not for all of the Cowboys' untimely penalties, that game goes a completely different way.

This just isn't the offense we saw against the Browns, Bears, Steelers and Lions. Defenses have caught on to the Eagles' inability to throw the ball deep and it's resulted in less open space in the middle of the field for players like Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. 

As Andrew Kulp pointed out this week in his film review of Carson Wentz, it's not as if Wentz is shying away from throwing deep. He's not even being given the opportunity to chuck one. The Eagles aren't running deep routes and when they are, they aren't getting open. That's a rough combination.

That dink, dunk, dink, dunk way of moving the ball has to change. That's not to say the Eagles need to revamp their offense, but they need to at least show defenses they're willing to throw the ball deep to open up some other things.

An example of what I'm talking about took place Thursday night in the Falcons-Bucs game. Early in the second half, Matt Ryan faked a handoff and threw deep to Mohamed Sanu, who was in triple coverage. The pass fell incomplete, but it gave Tampa one more thing to worry about. 

Right now, defenses don't have to worry about that sort of thing with the Eagles. They have to worry about Wentz's mobility and ability to throw on the run. They have to worry about the utilization of Darren Sproles. But what else are the Eagles putting on tape that is causing defenses uneasiness? The answer is nothing.

Doug Pederson said this week that a team can be successful without connecting on deep shots. It's happened the last several seasons in Kansas City, where Pederson and Andy Reid ran a system that catered to Alex Smith's strengths: scrambling and throwing short. It's worked for the Chiefs, but KC also has better pass-catchers and better running backs.

With Josh Huff gone, Dorial Green-Beckham's playing time should increase again. Huff was playing 29 percent of the offensive snaps and those will have to go to someone. Speedy wideout Bryce Treggs is also expected to be active on gameday for the first time. You'd think the Eagles would look his way at least once and see if it works.

If things go well for the Eagles' offense Sunday, the thought here is that it will be the result of a strong game from one or both of Ertz and Green-Beckham. 

The Giants haven't been able to stop the better tight ends they've faced. Jason Witten went 9-for-66. Kyle Rudolph went 5-55-TD. Dennis Pitta caught six passes. In Week 7, Rams TE Lance Kendricks even had seven grabs against the Giants.

Giants LBs Jonathan Casillas and Keenan Robinson have the speed to stay with a tight end, but QBs are 28 for 36 (78 percent) for 235 yards when targeting Casillas. Since 2009, QBs have a 106.3 rating when throwing at Casillas, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Giants spent a ton of money this offseason to improve what was one of the league's worst defenses. Defensive end Olivier Vernon and cornerback Janoris Jenkins were the two big signings. 

Vernon has performed as expected, with 27 QB hurries so far, second in the NFL at his position to only Brandon Graham (28). 

Jenkins is the second-best CB in the division after Josh Norman. QBs have a 58.3 rating when targeting Jenkins, seventh-lowest among all NFL cornerbacks. Jenkins held Dez Bryant to one catch in Week 1.

The best player on the Giants' defense this year, though, has been second-year safety Landon Collins. After being picked on constantly as a rookie and having a miserable year in coverage (125.7 QB rating allowed, five touchdowns), Collins has given up just one TD this season, intercepted two passes and deflected three others. 

The Giants have been mostly sound in coverage and solid against the run (DT Damon Harrison has made an impact), but one thing they're still struggling to do is rush the passer, even with Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul. With just nine sacks on the season, the Giants rank last in the NFC and 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the Steelers. 

That's good news for the Eagles, who again have a new-look offensive line. Allen Barbre is out (hamstring) and Stefen Wisniewski is in at left guard. Wisniewski is a solid veteran, though, so don't expect him to struggle like Halapoulivaati Vaitai did in his first start.

Speaking of Vaitai, he's settled in since that rough debut, but the Eagles are going to need to give him help at times because Vernon and Pierre-Paul both pose a threat, even if the sack numbers aren't there.

In the running game, this could be another big workload for Darren Sproles, even thought the Giants have been stingy against running backs in the passing game. Sproles, who scored against the Giants the last time these teams played, got 15 carries and 20 total touches last week against the Cowboys. With Ryan Mathews' fumbles and inability to break off explosive runs this year, it makes sense to give Sproles the bulk of the work right now. It keeps defenses off balance because on every play, they don't know if Sproles is going to get a handoff, run a wheel route, a Texas route, or be put in motion. It's a nice wrinkle for an Eagles offense that lacks them. Sproles is also a decent pass blocker despite his size.

When the Giants have the ball
Odell Beckham Jr. is obviously the most dangerous offensive player in this game. He seems to always get his, no matter if there's double coverage. The Giants are 0-4 against the Eagles with Beckham but it hasn't been his fault — in the last three meetings, he has 24 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns.

The Birds' defensive gameplan must begin with limiting Beckham as much as possible. He can take the top off of any defense and we all know he's capable of circus catches.

The Giants don't have many other weapons, but rookie Sterling Shepard has given Eli Manning another target out wide. Shepard started fast, with 16 catches for 233 yards and two TDs in his first three games, but over his last four games he's averaged just 25 receiving yards.

Veteran slot receiver Victor Cruz has also slowed down after impressing the first four weeks. Through four weeks, Cruz had 16 catches for 245 yards and a TD; in the three games since, he has eight catches for 86 yards.

Manning has not been great so far in 2016. He's completed 65 percent of his passes, averaged 283 yards per game, has eight TDs and six interceptions. He's been sacked 10 times and has five fumbles.

Manning had a five-TD game against the Eagles in 2012. Since then, the Eagles have done a great job against him. In the last six meetings, Manning has completed just 56 percent of his passes for 275 yards per game with six TDs and six interceptions. He's been sacked 13 times. The Giants have averaged 16.5 points per game.

The Eagles' D-line should be able to get to him again, especially if Bennie Logan (game-time decision) is able to return from his groin injury and free Fletcher Cox from all the double-teams.

The weak link on the Giants' O-line this year has been left tackle Ereck Flowers, the ninth overall pick in 2015. Flowers had a disastrous rookie year, allowing five sacks, 17 QB hits and 47 hurries. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the worst offensive tackle in football last year, and this season Flowers ranks 50th out of 78 tackles in pass blocking.

That could mean finally — finally — an Eagles defensive end not named Brandon Graham could have a standout game. Playing on the opposite side of Graham, Connor Barwin and Vinny Curry have combined for seven QB hits to Graham's nine. With Graham and Cox having excellent seasons, if the D-end on the other side can make an impact, it could be a long day for Manning and a low-scoring game for the Giants. The expectation here is that happens.

The Giants' running game is pretty bad. Rashad Jennings is the starter, Bobby Rainey has replaced the injured Shane Vereen as the pass-catching back, and the Giants seem interested in giving rookie Paul Perkins some more work. The Eagles shouldn't have a ton of trouble stuffing the run Sunday.

Special teams
The release of Huff means the Eagles lose their best kick returner. Huff was one of the league's top kick returners with the Eagles, but now that opportunity will go to rookie running back Wendell Smallwood, who also has a return TD.

The Eagles have a history of timely special teams plays against the Giants: Brian Westbrook's game-winning punt return TD, DeSean Jackson's walk-off punt return TD, Sproles' 43-yard punt return in 2014.

The Giants also have a big-time returner in former Cowboy Dwayne Harris, who's done work against the Eagles over the years.

Longtime Bears kicker Robbie Gould has taken the place of Josh Brown, who probably won't ever play in another NFL game.

Eagles kicker Caleb Sturgis is 17 for 18 this season and has made 22 of his last 23 field goals dating back to last season. MetLife Stadium can be a tough place to kick because of the wind. Lifetime, Sturgis is 6 for 8 at the Meadowlands and has made all eight extra points.

Prediction
This is the third straight team coming off a bye to face the Eagles. The Giants are more rested, but I just don't think Manning is going to be able to overcome his mediocre running game and the Eagles' impressive front seven. 

This also has the makings of a rebound game for Wentz, who has played better than the stats indicate.

Eagles 24, Giants 13

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