Eagles (3-1) vs. Cardinals (2-2)
1 p.m. on FOX
Eagles -6.5
Here's an opponent that's actually won some games - barely. After back-to-back contests against clubs still in search of their first victory, the Eagles host the Arizona Cardinals at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 5.
The Cardinals fly into town with a 2-2 record, but those wins were hard to come by. Both required overtime and were at the expense of clubs that share just one win between them.
On paper, the Eagles sure look superior. They're 3-1 with a clear advantage in terms of point differential, turnover ratio, run defense and just about every offensive category. They're also in sole possession of first place in the NFC East and looking like one of the league's ascending franchises.
In other words, there's an expectation the Eagles will take care of business Sunday. Of course, in the NFL, wins rarely come easy.
Playing keep away
Here's a number that may surprise some people based on coach Doug Pederson's lopsided pass-run ratio the first two weeks of the season. The Eagles lead the NFL in time of possession, and it's not particularly close.
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The Eagles' offense has had the football an average of 35 minutes, 29 seconds per game. The next closest team, the Houston Texans, comes in a minute-and-a-half back at 33:52, while the third and fourth place teams are nearly three minutes off of that pace.
Running the football successfully the past two weeks helps. The Eagles' ground attack is tied for third with 143.0 yards per game. However, the ability of quarterback Carson Wentz to keep the chains moving on third down has been huge as well, as the offense is converting 50.9 percent of the time - good for second in the NFL.
That's obviously a great sign, but Wentz needs to continue picking up first downs, and most of all, play turnover-free ball Sunday. Because the last thing the Eagles can afford to do is give the Cardinals extra chances.
The Fitzgerald Factor
It's almost impossible to talk about the Cardinals and not immediately think of Larry Fitzgerald - especially when the conversation involves the Eagles. Not only is Fitzgerald a 10-time Pro Bowl selection and future Hall of Fame player, but the 6-foot-3, 218-pound slot receiver routinely cooks the Birds.
In seven career games against the Eagles, Fitzgerald is averaging 5.9 receptions for 99.0 yards with eight touchdowns. Not coincidentally, the Cardinals are 5-2 in those meetings.
Fitzgerald is in his 14th season and 34 years old now, but still going strong. He's coming off back-to-back 100-reception, 1,000-yard seasons and currently is on pace to eclipse said milestones again. The Eagles likely will use some combination of Patrick Robinson and Malcolm Jenkins to try to slow him down.
Pick your poison
The trouble is the Cardinals' passing attack has more than one way to beat a defense. If it's not Fitzgerald controlling the middle of the field, it's tremendous speed outside the numbers.
Fitzgerald has size and great hands, but Jaron Brown, John Brown and J.J. Nelson are fast, faster and faster still on the perimeters. All three can run a sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash, with John Brown officially timing at 4.34 seconds and Nelson at 4.28 seconds and the 2014 and 2015 NFL scouting combines, respectively.
The Cardinals rank second in the NFL with 292.2 passing yards per game and third with 20 completions of 20 yards or more. The Eagles rank 30th allowing 285.0 passing yards per game and have allowed five receptions of 40 yards or more - tied for most in the league. Can this secondary handle all these weapons?
Why this one could come down to the wire
Everything about this matchup potentially sets up for another nailbiter in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles' defense has been getting shredded in the final period, to the tune of 17.3 points per game in their last three. The Chiefs hung 14 on them. The Giants racked up 24. The Chargers scored 14 as well.
It's certainly been a problem, though there's no big secret why. The last two games, in particular, the Eagles had the lead late, forcing the other team to throw. They've had injuries, most notably to cornerback Ronald Darby and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, both out this week.
The Cardinals are built very similarly to the Eagles' last two opponents, the Giants and Chargers. Arizona has no running game. The offensive line stinks. The defense is good enough to keep them in the game. And the quarterback, Carson Palmer, and his receivers can light up the scoreboard in a hurry.
There's no magic formula. The Eagles' D is shorthanded again, and the Cardinals will need to throw the ball to score and keep up. It's probably going to be a tightballgamee, right up until the end.
The difference this week
There is at least one notable difference between the Cardinals and the Eagles' last two opponents. Arizona's offensive line might be even worse, and Palmer will hold the ball and get sacked.
No quarterback in the league has been sacked more than Palmer this season - a whopping 17 times. Sixteen of those sacks have occurred in the last three weeks alone. Palmer has also thrown five interceptions while running for his life.
Starting left tackle D.J. Humphries was ruled out with a knee injury, and Alex Boone is questionable with a chest injury that limited him all week in practice. Even if Boone plays, the O-line is a sieve.
The Eagles may not have Cox, but they can get to this quarterback and force him to make mistakes. If there's any hope of avoiding late theatrics this week, it's the offense playing keep away from the Cardinals, and the defense pounding Palmer into submission.
