New Jersey

Looking at the Potential Political Fallout as Federal Corruption Trial for U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez Begins in New Jersey

Even a single vote swing, for instance, could revive the Republican health care reform proposals that failed spectacularly earlier this summer.

When the Department of Justice decided to indict U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez in 2015, the Obama administration likely didn’t envision the peril it would put forth for the Democratic Party.

Menendez, the New Jersey Democrat, faces federal corruption charges in a trial that began Tuesday with jury selection. The trial is expected to take a few weeks and the outcome is far from certain. Menendez has staunchly defended his actions cited in the indictment by prosecutors as illegal.

He has maintained his innocence and fellow Democrats in New Jersey and Washington D.C. have stuck with their colleague so far. But what happens if — hypothetically — Menendez is convicted?

It’s a complicated process with no straight path to appointing his successor.

The only sure thing is that the New Jersey governor would appoint someone to fill the Senate seat for the remainder of the term. By Senate standards, that interim appointee wouldn’t serve long. Menendez is up for re-election next year.

But in the age of Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress, the opportunity for Gov. Chris Christie to replace a Democrat with a Republican would be seen as an immense opportunity for the so-far stalled GOP agenda.

Even a single vote swing, for instance, could revive the Republican health care reform proposals that failed spectacularly earlier this summer, according to Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University in New Jersey.

(In a sign of just how tenuous the U.S. Attorney’s case against Menendez is, Harrison said, Christie has said it’s too early to talk interim appointments.)

“Dems in New Jersey and throughout the country pray that Menendez will hold on to at least January,” Harrison said, speaking hypothetically about possible outcomes from the trial.

A holdout until 2018 would very likely place the appointment in the hands of Democratic governor, Harrison said. In the race to become the next governor of New Jersey, which will be decided in November, Democrat Phil Murphy holds a commanding lead on Republican Kim Guadagno, the current lieutenant. Murphy is widely expected to win by double digits.

Another outcome of a conviction could be the Senate seeking to “expel” Menendez. But that requires two-thirds approval, which adds up to the votes of every Republican and 15 Democrats.

“What we know, given the climate of the country and the Senate, there would be enormous pressure for Republicans to vote to expel, but for Democrats to hold the line,” Harrison said. “This would be the partisan battle of the century.”

Christie could appoint himself to the U.S. Senate seat, but could choose to fill it with a conservative Republican. That’s a move that would address two ongoing pursuits for Christie: curry favor with the conservatives within the Republican Party, and buoy his chances for a job in the Trump administration after leaving the governor’s office.

U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur, the conservative representing New Jersey’s Third District, is one of the few names circulating, Harrison said.

“The loyalty we’ve seen to Bob Menendez has been extraordinary,” she said. “There is a really strong presumption of innocence. Even when it comes to jockeying for the seat, we’ve seen almost none of that.”

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