Arlen's Done it Again

Specter has to prove to Dems that he is a more useful commodity

Arlen Specter has done it again. He's turned the world sideways, if not upside down. I mentioned the possibility of him switching a few weeks ago and now that it has happened, it's clear the move is pure Arlen Specter. Do the unexpected from time to time, but the unexpected rooted in pragmatism and fertile intellectual discourse. Now, get a load of what Republicans and Democrats are doing.

Not pleased, clearly upset and maybe bitter Republicans have begun striking back at Senator Specter for his switch to the Democratic Party. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is calling likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania. The recorded message identifies who's calling and says the Committee wants to help Democrats welcome Specter to the Democratic Party. The recording then plays a sound bite from President George W. Bush praising Specter during his last run for re-election. You hear the former President saying, "I'm here to say as plainly as I can, Arlen Specter is the right kind of man for the United States Senate. I can count on that man. He's a proud ally when it matters most." Republicans believe reminding Democrats that Specter is not the "new" Obama-style fresh face liberals want may lead to Specter's defeat in the Democratic Primary next year, or at least weaken him for the general election.

Until Specter's switch, Joe Torsella was the only Democrat running for the Senate, though he has not officially declared and though a couple of others were thinking about it. Some liberal, activist Democrats have told me they are encouraging Congressman Joe Sestak or Congrssman Patrick Murphy to consider running. Those activists are not impressed with Specter's independence. But, President Obama's backing of Specter together with Senator Specter's long reach throughout the state is scaring away possible challengers, at least for the moment. People who believe in JoeTorsella feel he has been shafted and many of them want him to keep ramping up his run and to formally get into the race, if only to gain name recognition or to be there should the Senator decide to withdraw. Others wonder whether Arlen Specter can do the serious meeting of the minds some Democrats may need him to do.

NBC10 Hotline Democratic analyst Donna Gentile O'Donnell tells me, "When people ask about Arlen Specter as a Democrat, I want to go back to words that Specter used during the Impeachment of President Bill Clinton as he (Specter) examined the evidence and concluded, 'not proved.' " Gentile O'Donnell says Specter has to prove to some Democrats that he is a more useful commodity than a fresh Democratic face would be in the Senate caucus and for the Obama administration. I look to see if a compromise is not found on the card check bill. Specter recently said he would vote against it but he could endear himself to Democrats if he were to vote for it, as he once did. However, to do that, something would have to change in the bill unless the Senator just flat out does an about face. That's not his style. Even the big switch of parties was not an about face. No, I look to see if the Congressional Democratic leadership can find a path for the man who's been very good at finding and taking paths no one else can see.

Senator Specter, arriving at 30th Street Station, at the end of his earthshaking week, reiterated why he switched. 200,000 Republicans became Democrats last year and a party that he says has gone far to the right would not have given him the nomination. It's about winning and it's about continuing his work on medical research, health care reform and other matters this Appropriations and Judiciary Committee giant cares about. Specter appears to be a complex mix of personal ambition and a genuine desire to be meaningful, a statesman whose occasional appearance of being contrarian may really be an effort to preserve the democratic (with a small d) in a complicated world where magic wands just don't exist. Far left and far right will never warm to such a politician.

NBC10 Hotline Republican analyst Jeff Jubelirer tells me that he believes Arlen Specter "saw the calculation" and made the decision to switch because the first rule of governing is you can't govern if you don't win. Jubelirer says this shows Specter's practicality. Running as an Independent just doesn't work in Pennsylvania. Jeff confirms some Republicans are talking to former Governor and former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge about challenging Pat Toomey, now the frontrunner in the Republican Primary.

Everyone knows Ridge's strengths, but at the end of the day, he has to add the same numbers up that Arlen Specter did. Conservatives respect Ridge's national security credentials but his moderate (liberal) stands on some social issues still would roil them. The party is in a reforming stage in which the many of the activists of course want to win, but they think to do that and to succeed long term they need to coalesce around certain principles more than broaden the tent. Perhaps Specter's defection will ignite a rethinking of that, but for now, conservatives say Specter's leaving is just a big step for the GOP to rebuild around fiscal responsibility and social conservatism and thus be ready to answer the call when Liberalism fails.

Arlen's done it again, hasn't he?
 

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