The flu is about to make its biggest assault on the Philadelphia region this week if an influenza forecast is correct.
The number of people experiencing influenza-like symptoms in Philadelphia is predicted to hit a season-high this week, according to forecasting models put out by Columbia University’s Prediction of Infectious Diseases program.
By Friday, Philadelphia is forecast to see more than 22,600 flu-like cases for the week. Regionally, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware are also expected to peak.
“We’re definitely in the midst of flu season. The timing is very classic,” said Dr. Neil Fishman, an infectious disease specialist and Associate Chief Medical Officer for Penn Medicine. Fishman is not involved in the Columbia forecasting group, but says the sudden increase is consistent with what Penn’s health system is seeing.
“We’re still on the sharp upslope with no signs that it’s plateaued yet,” he told NBC10 Monday.
Influenza is a respiratory illness caused by a virus. Its symptoms include fever, chills, muscle aches, coughing and a sore throat, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. In people at high risk, it can be deadly.
Columbia’s infectious disease predictor takes cues from weather forecasting and has accurately predicted when the flu peaked in 70 percent of the United State during the 2012-2013 season, the school said.
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The prediction tool estimates it will be within 25 percent of the actual peak numbers. There’s also up to a two week gap between official health department reporting about flu activity and the predicted number of cases.
Health officials in all three states say it’s impossible to predict when flu cases will hit the ceiling, but that activity overall is most widespread right now.
“We don’t believe we’ve peaked yet. We certainly expect more flu activity in the coming weeks. But its unpredictable,” Pennsylvania Department of Health spokeswoman Holly Senior said.
“A typical peak for New Jersey lasts around 4 to 5 weeks,” New Jersey Department of Health spokeswoman Donna Leusner said. “It's only been the last week or two that New Jersey has seen an increase in activity so this may be just the beginning and the height of the peak will in fact be in the next week or two but there is no way to tell for certain.”
In Delaware, there have been 632 confirmed influenza cases for the season — an 800 percent increase over the same time last year, officials said.
“Delaware is having a tough flu year and we are being very active,” state health spokeswoman Emily Knearl said. She added they are regularly offering flu vaccinations and advertising to remind people about the flu season.
Is this year different?
The Philadelphia forecast calls for a sharp peak followed by an equally-sharp decline in cases of Influenza A, the more severe type of the virus. Influenza B, the less severe, is expected to peak on Valentine's Day.
Fishman said that follows a more typical flu season and is similar to trends seen in 2012-2013 when the flu had a large, sudden impact.
“What usually happens is that Influenza A peaks and it declines over another between three to four weeks. As Influenza A declines, Influenza B peaks. It is generally a more mild illness and it usually happens more later in the winter,” Fishman said.
This year, so far, there have been a few complications in the battle against the virus.
One of the strains targeted in the flu shot has drifted, or missed the mark. More than half the samples tested by the did not match strains covered by the shot.
About half the flu strains Penn is seeing this year were found in South America during their most recent flu season, Fishman said. Their winter takes place during our summer.
The regular availability of Tamiflu, the most popular flu treatment to alleviate symptoms, also compounded the situation. Penn hasn’t gotten its full supply because of shortages and Fishman says he's heard anecdotal reports of pharmacies unable to fill prescriptions.
A spokeswoman for Genentech, the drug’s maker, said the company is expanding its supply to areas in the Northeast to meet the sudden increase in demand.
Doctors are also seeing a jump in the number of respiratory illnesses like respiratory syncytial virus and parainfluenza, which have similar symptoms to the flu. This could give the perception the flu is more rampant this season.
So, what can you do?
Health officials and doctors all say it’s still important to get the flu shot, if you haven’t already. Despite not being as effective, Fishman said it can ward off Influenza B and lessen any flu symptoms if you are infected.
“What some people seem to forget is that about 30,000 to 40,000 people die from Influenza each year. It’s the leading cause of vaccine preventable death,” he said. “It can still prevent people from dying and getting severely sick.”
Practicing sickness etiquette is another way to stop the spread of illness. Experts say you should sneeze into your elbow, cough away from others and avoid going to work and school if you are showing symptoms.
This way secretions from your nose and mouth — the main way the virus is spread — won't become ticking time bombs for your co-workers and classmates.
“I know it’s hard to do. We all have children. We all have jobs. We know it’s hard to do, but it’s important,” Senior said.
And the most important thing: wash your hands.
“You should clean your hands a lot,” Fishman said. “The best thing you can do is carry around a little bottle of alcohol-based hand sanitizer and clean your hands more often.”
Contact Vince Lattanzio at 610.668.5532, vince.lattanzio@nbcuni.com or follow @VinceLattanzio on Twitter.
