Budget Gamble: Why Obama Went Big

The latest theme of pundit commentary on the Obama administration is overload.

A cartoon in Sunday’s Washington Post shows a chopper dropping the president’s massive agenda on the Capitol, ready to crush the dome. New York Times columnist David Brooks warned that “in trying to do everything at once,” Obama might “do nothing well.” On ABC’s “This Week,” host George Stephanopoulos asked budget director Peter Orzag about “overloading the circuits.”

But conversations with an array of White House aides, allies and advisers make clear that Obama sees the massive size of his agenda as a political advantage, not a vulnerability. The decision to move big and quickly with a $3.6 trillion budget that tries to tackle not just an ailing economy but energy, education and health care was a deliberate strategy — one that Obama believes leaves Washington’s deck stacked decisively in his favor, no matter the final fate of his proposals.

Here’s Obama’s logic, as described by people who work with him:

1) He’ll never have more mojo than now.

Some presidents have regarded political influence as like money in a savings account, to be doled out selectively. Obama and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel have a different theory — that new presidents grow their capital by moving boldly and chalking up successes in as many arenas as possible.

This logic has produced a do-it-all budget that will expand the government’s reach in health care, invest in clean energy and high-speed rail, spend more on preschools, food stamps and college aid — and will have fiscal implications that could outlast even a Supreme Court appointment, the traditional horizon for a given president’s direct impact on the country. He’s calling for $1 trillion in additional taxation over the next decade, and a $1 trillion deficit again next year. The New York Post ran a cover with the president as Uncle Sam, saying, “PAY UP AMERICA.” It’s a far cry from school uniforms.

2) Bargain from strength.

Open with an ambitious and ideologically charged negotiating position, leaving plenty of room later to move to the center as needed. Even the budget’s centerpiece — a $634 billion “reserve fund for health care reform” — could get worked over by Congress and still provide a meaty down payment toward his “aim for universality” in coverage.

“I didn’t come here to do the same thing we’ve been doing or to take small steps forward,” Obama said in his weekend radio and YouTube address. “I came to provide the sweeping change that this country demanded when it went to the polls in November.”

3) Be “the president who tried.”

He’s laying as much as possible at the feet of Congress. If things get bogged down, rejected or turned inside out, he can say he did his part and blame others for obstructionism.

“I reject the view that says our problems will simply take care of themselves,” Obama said in his maiden address to Congress. “The eyes of all people in all nations are ... upon us — watching to see what we do with this moment; waiting for us to lead.”

4) Casino rules: The house always wins.

Remember when Bill Clinton dramatically waved his pen and warned Congress that he would veto any health care bill that did not guarantee universal coverage? It was a bold gesture — and, as soon became clear, a foolish one. So far Obama has not made such irrevocable statements.

With a large agenda, Obama figures he can get only a fraction of it enacted and still plausibly claim a big victory and put the country on a path toward transformative change.

“This budget is not an end point. It is a beginning,” blogged Peter Orszag, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

5) Leverage depression-like economic conditions.

Just as President George W. Bush leveraged the aftermath of 9/11 to enact once-unthinkable national security policies, Obama has referred to the economy again and again as a rationale for moving on his policies — even ones that are only tangentially related to economic revival.

“The times required that we do something ambitious,” a White House official said. “We’re doing more, faster than any modern president. But that’s what it takes in a time of crisis.”

6) Because he said he would.

The proposals closely echo what the president promised during the campaign, and now he’s putting his money where his mouth was — or your money, depending on how you look at it. Some of Obama’s 53 percent of the popular vote was no doubt a rejection of John McCain rather than an embrace of his own ideas. But by treating his victory, combined with Democratic gains in Congress, as an unambiguous ideological mandate, he is betting that others will see it the same way.

In the end, Obama believes, forward motion on his agenda matters more than any details.

“Even if we’re busting the budget, we’ve got to solve some of these problems,” said a member of his inner circle. “I’d rather live with a debt than have people go without health care.”

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